Pedro Venturi, Alex Ferreira, Arie Gozluklu, Yujing Gong
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Abstract This article introduces a rational expectations model that explains exchange rate dynamics and the predictability of forecast errors using private (aggregated via order flow) and public (probabilities of a binary event) information. We test the model for the periods leading up to the presidential impeachment vote in Brazil, the Brexit Referendum, and Donald Trump’s election in 2016. Proxies of the physical probabilities of these events reveal that they are a crucial source of pricing information for the BRL, GBP, and MXN currency pairs with the US dollar. They also explain forecast errors. The information content of order flow changes before and after an actual regime change resolves uncertainty.
期刊介绍：
Oxford Economic Papers is a general economics journal, publishing refereed papers in economic theory, applied economics, econometrics, economic development, economic history, and the history of economic thought. It occasionally publishes survey articles in addition to original papers. Books are not reviewed, but substantial review articles are considered. The journal occasionally publishes survey articles in addition to original papers, and occasionally publishes special issues or symposia.
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