Abstract We consider an endogenous learning-by-doing process where countries can invest in research that reduces the systematic uncertainty about climate change damages. We analyse a coalition model in which countries decide whether to join a treaty and then choose their level of research and abatement. Countries can cooperate on research and abatement or only on one of these items. We consider the entire range of possible research spillovers. Cooperation on all issues and large research spillovers are generally welfare improving, but lead to smaller coalitions, as they encourage free-riding. However, on balance, in equilibrium, we find that cooperation should not be confined to research and should include abatement, and research findings should freely travel.
{"title":"Endogenous learning in international environmental agreements: the impact of research spillovers and the degree of cooperation","authors":"Francisco J André, Michael Finus","doi":"10.1093/oep/gpad047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpad047","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We consider an endogenous learning-by-doing process where countries can invest in research that reduces the systematic uncertainty about climate change damages. We analyse a coalition model in which countries decide whether to join a treaty and then choose their level of research and abatement. Countries can cooperate on research and abatement or only on one of these items. We consider the entire range of possible research spillovers. Cooperation on all issues and large research spillovers are generally welfare improving, but lead to smaller coalitions, as they encourage free-riding. However, on balance, in equilibrium, we find that cooperation should not be confined to research and should include abatement, and research findings should freely travel.","PeriodicalId":48092,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Economic Papers-New Series","volume":"4 6","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135975634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We study inflation in a group of 15 countries before and during the classical Gold Standard using annual data spanning 1851–1913. The degree of co-movements between domestic and international inflation depends on geographical remoteness and openness to trade. Furthermore, international inflation acts as an ‘attractor’ for domestic inflation. Sub-sample estimates reveal little evidence of instability implying that international inflation was an important influence on domestic inflation throughout this time period.
{"title":"International co-movements of inflation, 1851–1913","authors":"Stefan Gerlach, Rebecca Stuart","doi":"10.1093/oep/gpad048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpad048","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We study inflation in a group of 15 countries before and during the classical Gold Standard using annual data spanning 1851–1913. The degree of co-movements between domestic and international inflation depends on geographical remoteness and openness to trade. Furthermore, international inflation acts as an ‘attractor’ for domestic inflation. Sub-sample estimates reveal little evidence of instability implying that international inflation was an important influence on domestic inflation throughout this time period.","PeriodicalId":48092,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Economic Papers-New Series","volume":"41 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136103396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This article investigates if, and to what extent, banking structural reforms may affect the top income shares over time. Canada and Italy are used as case studies, as both countries undertook a major deregulation and liberalization process within their banking sector in the early 1990s. These banking policies aimed at privatizing the banking sector and reintroducing the quasi universal banking model. The evaluation of these policy packages is undertaken by implementing the Synthetic Control Method. Findings point out, overall, a robust and substantial increase of some of the top income shares in both countries, over the post-deregulation period. This work contributes by also identifying the main potential mechanisms—both direct and indirect—via which banking deregulation might have operated.
{"title":"Banking structural reforms and top income shares: regulate or deregulate?","authors":"Carola Casti","doi":"10.1093/oep/gpad046","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpad046","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article investigates if, and to what extent, banking structural reforms may affect the top income shares over time. Canada and Italy are used as case studies, as both countries undertook a major deregulation and liberalization process within their banking sector in the early 1990s. These banking policies aimed at privatizing the banking sector and reintroducing the quasi universal banking model. The evaluation of these policy packages is undertaken by implementing the Synthetic Control Method. Findings point out, overall, a robust and substantial increase of some of the top income shares in both countries, over the post-deregulation period. This work contributes by also identifying the main potential mechanisms—both direct and indirect—via which banking deregulation might have operated.","PeriodicalId":48092,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Economic Papers-New Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135976285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This article reassesses the conventional wisdom that public-sector jobs have worse pay but better amenities than equivalent private-sector jobs, using data from 22 European countries and the USA. Earnings gaps are shown to be heterogeneous across countries—public sector work carries a premium in Europe but a penalty in the USA. However, whereas European public-sector workers report better job amenities—better job security and work–life balance—than their private-sector counterparts, there are no public–private amenity differentials for US workers. Public-sector work also has fewer pay-for-performance schemes. Finally, the public sector does not seem to ensure a fairer work environment, compared to the private sector, in terms of workplace discrimination and harassment. These stylized facts inform the external validity of extrapolating individual case studies to different contexts.
{"title":"Public- and private-sector jobs: a cross-country perspective","authors":"Alessandra Fenizia, Daniele Checchi, Claudio Lucifora","doi":"10.1093/oep/gpad044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpad044","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article reassesses the conventional wisdom that public-sector jobs have worse pay but better amenities than equivalent private-sector jobs, using data from 22 European countries and the USA. Earnings gaps are shown to be heterogeneous across countries—public sector work carries a premium in Europe but a penalty in the USA. However, whereas European public-sector workers report better job amenities—better job security and work–life balance—than their private-sector counterparts, there are no public–private amenity differentials for US workers. Public-sector work also has fewer pay-for-performance schemes. Finally, the public sector does not seem to ensure a fairer work environment, compared to the private sector, in terms of workplace discrimination and harassment. These stylized facts inform the external validity of extrapolating individual case studies to different contexts.","PeriodicalId":48092,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Economic Papers-New Series","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136234025","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sandra Pérez Rodríguez, Rolf van der Velden, Tim Huijts, Babs Jacobs
Abstract The Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC) is currently the most important data source that provides information on the key skills possessed by workers, including literacy and numeracy. However, to assess skill mismatch, we also need information on the required skills in those domains, measured in the same metric and scale. In this article, we use the Job Analysis Method (JAM) to determine the required skill levels of literacy and numeracy for all four-digit International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) 2008 unit groups. JAM is often considered the ‘gold standard’ in estimating required levels but has never been used in the context of PIAAC. This article thus presents the first results on the prevalence of skill mismatches using JAM comparing different OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries and different occupations. We compare our results with alternative methods and show some advantages of using JAM. We discuss some of the limitations as well.
{"title":"Identifying literacy and numeracy skill mismatch in OECD countries using the job analysis method","authors":"Sandra Pérez Rodríguez, Rolf van der Velden, Tim Huijts, Babs Jacobs","doi":"10.1093/oep/gpad045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpad045","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC) is currently the most important data source that provides information on the key skills possessed by workers, including literacy and numeracy. However, to assess skill mismatch, we also need information on the required skills in those domains, measured in the same metric and scale. In this article, we use the Job Analysis Method (JAM) to determine the required skill levels of literacy and numeracy for all four-digit International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO) 2008 unit groups. JAM is often considered the ‘gold standard’ in estimating required levels but has never been used in the context of PIAAC. This article thus presents the first results on the prevalence of skill mismatches using JAM comparing different OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries and different occupations. We compare our results with alternative methods and show some advantages of using JAM. We discuss some of the limitations as well.","PeriodicalId":48092,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Economic Papers-New Series","volume":"25 6","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134973779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This article links detailed 24-h diary surveys in the UK for the last four decades, to provide evidence of an increase in work effort in three specific dimensions: timing, nature, and composition. We rule out certain proposed explanations of these trends, finding that the decrease in the frequency of on-the-job leisure is more pronounced for workers in routine task-intensive occupations. Alternative supply-side and demand-side explanations, such as changes in relative preferences for leisure, or an increase in off-shoring, or competition for jobs, cannot explain our results. Our findings suggest that the amount and frequency of on-the-job leisure can be used as a measure of work effort, and that the routine-biased technological changes experienced during this period lie at the root of the increase in work effort in the UK.
{"title":"Trends in effort at work in the UK","authors":"Jose Ignacio Gimenez-Nadal, Almudena Sevilla","doi":"10.1093/oep/gpad043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpad043","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article links detailed 24-h diary surveys in the UK for the last four decades, to provide evidence of an increase in work effort in three specific dimensions: timing, nature, and composition. We rule out certain proposed explanations of these trends, finding that the decrease in the frequency of on-the-job leisure is more pronounced for workers in routine task-intensive occupations. Alternative supply-side and demand-side explanations, such as changes in relative preferences for leisure, or an increase in off-shoring, or competition for jobs, cannot explain our results. Our findings suggest that the amount and frequency of on-the-job leisure can be used as a measure of work effort, and that the routine-biased technological changes experienced during this period lie at the root of the increase in work effort in the UK.","PeriodicalId":48092,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Economic Papers-New Series","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135618695","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Traditional gender norms that assume gendered household resource allocation are persistent. What happens when society-wide gender norms begin to change? By collecting newspaper articles about feminism in the past 10 years in Korea and exploiting their region–year variations, we first provide evidence that an explosive increase in newspaper coverage of feminism after the mid-2010s caused a steep change toward egalitarian attitudes among women. Then, we construct a Bartik IV with the newspapers’ market shares and growth of the feminism-related articles to show that the change in women’s perceptions of gender norms induced by the media-influence affected both spouses’ time use in household labor and women’s welfare. The wives influenced by those articles substantially reduced their household labor and outsourced them to the market, while the husbands’ participation did not increase as much. The wives’ marital happiness was improved by replacing housework burdens with shared activities with their husbands.
{"title":"Changing gender norms and household resource allocation","authors":"Jung Hyuk Lee","doi":"10.1093/oep/gpad041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpad041","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Traditional gender norms that assume gendered household resource allocation are persistent. What happens when society-wide gender norms begin to change? By collecting newspaper articles about feminism in the past 10 years in Korea and exploiting their region–year variations, we first provide evidence that an explosive increase in newspaper coverage of feminism after the mid-2010s caused a steep change toward egalitarian attitudes among women. Then, we construct a Bartik IV with the newspapers’ market shares and growth of the feminism-related articles to show that the change in women’s perceptions of gender norms induced by the media-influence affected both spouses’ time use in household labor and women’s welfare. The wives influenced by those articles substantially reduced their household labor and outsourced them to the market, while the husbands’ participation did not increase as much. The wives’ marital happiness was improved by replacing housework burdens with shared activities with their husbands.","PeriodicalId":48092,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Economic Papers-New Series","volume":"247 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135855010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This article proposes a two-country AK model of growth with cross-country knowledge diffusion and endogenous migration to study the relationship between migration, income inequality, and economic growth. In contrast with mainstream AK literature, the article shows that introducing knowledge diffusion from rich to poor countries makes AK models predict conditional convergence, but also that migration tends to cool the catching-up process of poorer economies. When testing the robustness of the policy implications of the AK literature in the presence of migration, we find that subsidizing capital accumulation in frontier countries stimulates migration and worldwide growth, but also that it increases cross-country inequalities in terms of both income and technology. On the contrary, subsidizing capital accumulation in non-frontier countries reduces migration and mitigates inequalities worldwide, but has no effects on the long-run pace of economic growth of the two countries.
{"title":"Migration, technology diffusion, and growth","authors":"Bright Isaac Ikhenaode, Carmelo Pierpaolo Parello","doi":"10.1093/oep/gpad042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpad042","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article proposes a two-country AK model of growth with cross-country knowledge diffusion and endogenous migration to study the relationship between migration, income inequality, and economic growth. In contrast with mainstream AK literature, the article shows that introducing knowledge diffusion from rich to poor countries makes AK models predict conditional convergence, but also that migration tends to cool the catching-up process of poorer economies. When testing the robustness of the policy implications of the AK literature in the presence of migration, we find that subsidizing capital accumulation in frontier countries stimulates migration and worldwide growth, but also that it increases cross-country inequalities in terms of both income and technology. On the contrary, subsidizing capital accumulation in non-frontier countries reduces migration and mitigates inequalities worldwide, but has no effects on the long-run pace of economic growth of the two countries.","PeriodicalId":48092,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Economic Papers-New Series","volume":"153 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135855511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Studies of wage inequality concentrate on private wages. Public sector wages are typically assumed to contribute to the overall wage equality. We challenge this understanding in an analysis of the relative skill premium in the public versus private sectors. The analysis of heterogeneity across gender and geography is based on rich register data for Norway. The raw data confirm the relative wage compression in the public sector. However, this is a male phenomenon and only prevalent in large cities when unobserved worker and firm characteristics are taken into account. With identification based on shifters between private and public sectors and movers between city-size groups, wage setting for female workers in the public sector increases wage inequality in all regions, particularly in the periphery. The result is consistent with policies promoting the recruitment of high-educated female workers and the expansion of public services in the periphery counterbalancing the desired equality effect of public wages.
{"title":"Public sector wage compression and wage inequality: gender and geographic heterogeneity","authors":"Jørn Rattsø, Hildegunn E Stokke","doi":"10.1093/oep/gpad040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpad040","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Studies of wage inequality concentrate on private wages. Public sector wages are typically assumed to contribute to the overall wage equality. We challenge this understanding in an analysis of the relative skill premium in the public versus private sectors. The analysis of heterogeneity across gender and geography is based on rich register data for Norway. The raw data confirm the relative wage compression in the public sector. However, this is a male phenomenon and only prevalent in large cities when unobserved worker and firm characteristics are taken into account. With identification based on shifters between private and public sectors and movers between city-size groups, wage setting for female workers in the public sector increases wage inequality in all regions, particularly in the periphery. The result is consistent with policies promoting the recruitment of high-educated female workers and the expansion of public services in the periphery counterbalancing the desired equality effect of public wages.","PeriodicalId":48092,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Economic Papers-New Series","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135094377","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pedro Venturi, Alex Ferreira, Arie Gozluklu, Yujing Gong
Abstract This article introduces a rational expectations model that explains exchange rate dynamics and the predictability of forecast errors using private (aggregated via order flow) and public (probabilities of a binary event) information. We test the model for the periods leading up to the presidential impeachment vote in Brazil, the Brexit Referendum, and Donald Trump’s election in 2016. Proxies of the physical probabilities of these events reveal that they are a crucial source of pricing information for the BRL, GBP, and MXN currency pairs with the US dollar. They also explain forecast errors. The information content of order flow changes before and after an actual regime change resolves uncertainty.
{"title":"Exchange rates and binary political events","authors":"Pedro Venturi, Alex Ferreira, Arie Gozluklu, Yujing Gong","doi":"10.1093/oep/gpad039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpad039","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article introduces a rational expectations model that explains exchange rate dynamics and the predictability of forecast errors using private (aggregated via order flow) and public (probabilities of a binary event) information. We test the model for the periods leading up to the presidential impeachment vote in Brazil, the Brexit Referendum, and Donald Trump’s election in 2016. Proxies of the physical probabilities of these events reveal that they are a crucial source of pricing information for the BRL, GBP, and MXN currency pairs with the US dollar. They also explain forecast errors. The information content of order flow changes before and after an actual regime change resolves uncertainty.","PeriodicalId":48092,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Economic Papers-New Series","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135966053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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