A stakeholder-guided marine heatwave hazard index for fisheries and aquaculture

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Climatic Change Pub Date : 2024-02-06 DOI:10.1007/s10584-024-03684-8

{"title":"A stakeholder-guided marine heatwave hazard index for fisheries and aquaculture","authors":"","doi":"10.1007/s10584-024-03684-8","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Abstract</h3> <p>Marine heatwaves pose an increasing threat to fisheries and aquaculture around the world under climate change. However, the threat has not been estimated for the coming decades in a form that meets the needs of these industries. Tasmanian fisheries and aquaculture in southeast Australia have been severely impacted by marine heatwaves in recent years, especially the oyster, abalone, and salmon industries. In a series of semi-structured interviews with key Tasmanian fishery and aquaculture stakeholders, information was gathered about the following: (i) the impacts they have experienced to date from marine heatwaves, (ii) their planning for future marine heatwaves, and (iii) the information that would be most useful to aid planning. Using CMIP6 historical and future simulations of sea surface temperatures around Tasmania, we developed a marine heatwave hazard index guided by these stakeholder conversations. The region experienced a severe marine heatwave during the austral summer of 2015/16, which has been used here as a reference point to define the index. Our marine heatwave hazard index shows that conditions like those experienced in 2015/16 are projected to occur approximately 1-in-5 years by the 2050s under a low emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6) or 1-in-2 years under a high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Increased frequency of marine heatwaves will likely reduce productivity by both direct (mortality) and in-direct (ecosystem change, greater incidence of disease) impacts on target species. The illustrative hazard index is one step towards a marine heatwave risk index, which would also need to consider aspects of exposure and vulnerability to be of greater utility to stakeholders.</p>","PeriodicalId":10372,"journal":{"name":"Climatic Change","volume":"61 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Climatic Change","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03684-8","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Marine heatwaves pose an increasing threat to fisheries and aquaculture around the world under climate change. However, the threat has not been estimated for the coming decades in a form that meets the needs of these industries. Tasmanian fisheries and aquaculture in southeast Australia have been severely impacted by marine heatwaves in recent years, especially the oyster, abalone, and salmon industries. In a series of semi-structured interviews with key Tasmanian fishery and aquaculture stakeholders, information was gathered about the following: (i) the impacts they have experienced to date from marine heatwaves, (ii) their planning for future marine heatwaves, and (iii) the information that would be most useful to aid planning. Using CMIP6 historical and future simulations of sea surface temperatures around Tasmania, we developed a marine heatwave hazard index guided by these stakeholder conversations. The region experienced a severe marine heatwave during the austral summer of 2015/16, which has been used here as a reference point to define the index. Our marine heatwave hazard index shows that conditions like those experienced in 2015/16 are projected to occur approximately 1-in-5 years by the 2050s under a low emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6) or 1-in-2 years under a high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Increased frequency of marine heatwaves will likely reduce productivity by both direct (mortality) and in-direct (ecosystem change, greater incidence of disease) impacts on target species. The illustrative hazard index is one step towards a marine heatwave risk index, which would also need to consider aspects of exposure and vulnerability to be of greater utility to stakeholders.

查看原文

微信好友朋友圈 QQ好友复制链接

本刊更多论文

利益相关者指导下的渔业和水产养殖业海洋热浪危害指数

摘要在气候变化的影响下，海洋热浪对世界各地的渔业和水产养殖业构成了日益严重的威胁。然而，尚未以满足这些行业需求的形式对未来几十年的威胁进行估计。澳大利亚东南部的塔斯马尼亚渔业和水产养殖业近年来受到海洋热浪的严重影响，尤其是牡蛎、鲍鱼和鲑鱼产业。对塔斯马尼亚渔业和水产养殖业的主要利益相关者进行了一系列半结构化访谈，收集了以下信息：(i) 他们迄今为止所经历的海洋热浪影响，(ii) 他们对未来海洋热浪的规划，以及 (iii) 对规划最有用的信息。利用 CMIP6 对塔斯马尼亚周边海面温度的历史和未来模拟，我们在这些利益相关者对话的指导下制定了海洋热浪危害指数。该地区在 2015/16 年澳大利亚夏季经历了一次严重的海洋热浪，我们以此为参考点来定义该指数。我们的海洋热浪危害指数显示，预计到 2050 年代，在低排放情景（SSP1-2.6）下，类似 2015/16 年所经历的情况大约每 5 年会出现一次，而在高排放情景（SSP5-8.5）下，则每 2 年会出现一次。海洋热浪频率的增加可能会通过对目标物种的直接（死亡）和间接（生态系统变化、疾病发生率增加）影响而降低生产力。说明性危害指数是向海洋热浪风险指数迈出的一步，该指数还需要考虑暴露和脆弱性等方面，以便对利益相关者更有用。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文去求助

来源期刊

Climatic Change 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

10.20

自引率

4.20%

发文量

180

审稿时长

7.5 months

期刊介绍： Climatic Change is dedicated to the totality of the problem of climatic variability and change - its descriptions, causes, implications and interactions among these. The purpose of the journal is to provide a means of exchange among those working in different disciplines on problems related to climatic variations. This means that authors have an opportunity to communicate the essence of their studies to people in other climate-related disciplines and to interested non-disciplinarians, as well as to report on research in which the originality is in the combinations of (not necessarily original) work from several disciplines. The journal also includes vigorous editorial and book review sections.