Multi-model ensembles for regional and national wheat yield forecasts in Argentina

Abstract

While multi-model ensembles (MMEs) of seasonal climate models (SCMs) have been used for crop yield forecasting, there has not been a systematic attempt to select the most skillful SCMs to optimize the performance of a MME and improve in-season yield forecasts. Here, we propose a statistical model to forecast regional and national wheat yield variability from 1993-2016 over the main wheat production area in Argentina. Monthly mean temperature and precipitation from the four months (Aug-Nov) before harvest were used as features. The model was validated for end-of-season estimation in December using reanalysis data (ERA) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as well as for in-season forecasts from June to November using a MME of three SCMs from 10 SCMs analyzed. A benchmark model for end-of-season yield estimation using ERA data achieved a R2 of 0.33, a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 9.8% and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) score of 0.8 on national level. On regional level, the model demonstrated the best estimation accuracy in the northern sub-humid Pampas with a R2 of 0.5, a RMSE of 12.6% and a ROC score of 0.9. Across all months of initialization, SCMs from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory had the highest mean absolute error of forecasted features compared to ERA data. The most skillful in-season wheat yield forecasts were possible with a 3-member-MME, combining data from the SCMs of the ECMWF, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the French national meteorological service. This MME forecasted wheat yield on national level at the beginning of November, one month before harvest, with a R2 of 0.32, a RMSE of 9.9% and a ROC score of 0.7. This approach can be applied to other crops and regions.