Strategic analysis of metal dependency in the transition to low-carbon energy: A critical examination of nickel, cobalt, lithium, graphite, and copper scarcity using IEA future scenarios

Abstract

The 2023 edition of the IPCC document provides a thorough examination of the complex relationship between global energy infrastructure and essential mineral resources. It is crucial to adopt a comprehensive and proactive stance to understand and address the growing environmental challenges associated with energy production and consumption. This addresses the supply and demand scenarios of critical minerals, specifically nickel, cobalt, lithium, graphite, and copper, and examines their roles across diverse applications beyond clean energy technologies. Applying scenarios from the International Energy Agency (IEA) established in 2023, we conducted a comparative analysis to determine whether future use could impact their availability, ensuring that there is an adequate supply for all applications, not just clean technologies, in the years to come. We applied a holistic strategy that integrates technological innovation with policy ingenuity to guide society towards a sustainable reduction in its carbon footprint. Our objectives include: (1) to evaluate the potential effects of the widespread adoption of various technologies on future demand for these critical minerals, utilizing the IEA's 2023 scenarios; (2) Investigating Scarcity Risks and Demand Growth Dynamics; and (3) pinpointing specific minerals that require immediate and strategic attention to prevent potential shortages. Our findings show that demand scenarios differ by minerals and metals, identifying each of the risks and policies to address them. By contributing to the IPCC's ongoing efforts to combat climate change, this study underscores the vital importance of making informed decisions, fostering technological innovations, and implementing robust policies to successfully navigate the transition to a sustainable, low-carbon society.