An intrinsic low-frequency atmospheric mode of the Indonesian-Australian summer monsoon

Abstract

Deep convection in the Indo-Pacific warm pool is vital in driving global atmospheric overturning circulations. Year-to-year variations in the strength and location of warm pool precipitation can lead to significant local and downstream hydroclimatic impacts, including floods and droughts. While the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is recognized as a key factor in modulating interannual precipitation variations in this region, atmospheric internal variability is often as important. Here, through targeted atmospheric model experiments, we identify an intrinsic low-frequency atmospheric mode in the warm pool region during the austral summer, and show that its impact on seasonal rainfall is comparable to ENSO. This mode resembles the horizontal structure of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and may play a role in initiating ENSO as stochastic forcing. We show that this mode is not merely an episodic manifestation of MJO events but primarily arises from barotropic energy conversion aided by positive feedback between convection and circulation.