Data-driven investigation on the boreal summer MJO predictability

Abstract

The summer MJO exhibits different characteristics from its winter counterpart, particularly distinguished by propagation in both eastward and northward directions, which is relatively less understood. Here, we explore the primary sources of the summer MJO predictability using Machine Learning (ML) based on the long-term climate model simulation and its transfer learning with the observational data. Our ML-based summer MJO prediction model shows a correlation skill of 0.5 at about 24-day forecast lead time. By utilizing eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI), we discern Precipitable Water (PW) and Surface Temperature (TS) as the most influential sources for the summer MJO predictability. We especially identify the roles of PW and TS in the eastern and northern Indian Ocean (EIO and NIO) regions on the propagation characteristics of the summer MJO through XAI-based sensitivity experiments. These results suggest that ML-based approaches are useful for identifying sources of predictability and their roles in climate phenomena.