Antarctic extreme seasons under 20th and 21st century climate change

IF 8.5 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI:10.1038/s41612-024-00822-y
Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Thomas Caton Harrison, Caroline R. Holmes, Hua Lu, Patrick Martineau, Tony Phillips
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Abstract

In this study, available large ensemble datasets in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (CMIP6) archive were used to provide the first multi-variate overview of the evolution of extreme seasons over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean during the 20th and 21st centuries following medium-to-high radiative forcing scenarios. The results show significant differences between simulated changes in background mean climate and changes in low (10th percentile) and high (90th percentile) extreme seasons. Regional winter warming is most pronounced for cold extremes. In summer, there are more pronounced increases in high extremes in precipitation and westerly wind during the ozone hole formation period (late 20th century), affecting coastal regions and, in particular, the Antarctic Peninsula. At midlatitudes, there is a reduction in the range of summer season wind extremes. Suggested mechanisms for these differences are provided relating to sea ice retreat and westerly jet position.

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20 世纪和 21 世纪气候变化下的南极极端季节
在这项研究中,利用耦合模式相互比较阶段 6(CMIP6)档案中的现有大型集合数据集,首次对中高辐射强迫情景下 20 世纪和 21 世纪南极洲和南大洋极端季节的演变进行了多变量概述。结果显示,背景平均气候的模拟变化与低(第10百分位数)和高(第90百分位数)极端季节的变化之间存在显著差异。在极端寒冷季节,区域冬季变暖最为明显。在夏季,臭氧洞形成期(20 世纪末)的高极端降水和西风的增加更为明显,影响到沿海地区,特别是南极半岛。在中纬度地区,夏季极端风的范围有所缩小。提出了造成这些差异的与海冰消退和西风喷流位置有关的机制。
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来源期刊
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
8.80
自引率
3.30%
发文量
87
审稿时长
21 weeks
期刊介绍: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.
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