Historical Demographic Determinants Complement Climate Model Predictions of Co-Occurring Cryptic Species

IF 4.2 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Diversity and Distributions Pub Date : 2025-02-13 DOI:10.1111/ddi.70007

Pilar Jurado-Angulo, Mario García-París

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Abstract

Aim

We explore the impact of demography and biogeographic history on the interpretation of ecological niche model, highlighting the potential for integrating genetic and ecological approaches to elucidate the evolutionary dynamics underlying the geographic distributions of cryptic species.

Location

Western Palaearctic (Africa and Europe).

Methods

We conducted intensive sampling across the Iberian Peninsula to obtain mtDNA phylogeographic data and to develop fine-scale ecological niche models, projecting these models into both past and future scenarios for the cryptic earwigs Forficula dentata and F. mediterranea. Additionally, we utilised Bayesian skyline plot (BSP) analyses to reconstruct demographic histories and infer past population trends for both species.

Results

The phylogeographic patterns revealed divergent evolutionary histories: F. dentata exhibited a well-established, geographically structured lineage, whereas F. mediterranea displayed a star-shaped pattern characteristic of recent expansion. Comparison between current climate models and those projected into the past and future indicate that F. dentata is likely facing a substantial reduction in its suitable habitat due to ongoing climate change, possibly exacerbated by increasing competition with F. mediterranea.

Main Conclusions

Our results suggest that climatic factors alone cannot determine the distribution of cryptic species. Historical and demographic factors play a crucial role in shaping their current geographical structure. In addition, human-mediated dispersal and ongoing climate change may contribute to the genetic and spatial structure within the F. auricularia species complex. Overall, exploring the intricate interplay between historic, genetic and geographic distribution is recommended to overcome contradictory predictions of climate models.

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历史人口统计学决定因素补充了共同发生的隐物种的气候模式预测

目的探讨人口统计学和生物地理历史对生态位模型解释的影响，强调整合遗传和生态方法来阐明隐藏物种地理分布背后的进化动力学的潜力。位置古北极西部（非洲和欧洲）。方法在伊比利亚半岛进行密集采样，获取mtDNA系统地理数据，建立精细尺度的生态位模型，并将这些模型预测到隐地蜈蚣Forficula dentata和地中海蜈蚣F. mediterranea的过去和未来情景。此外，我们利用贝叶斯天际线图（BSP）分析重建了这两个物种的人口历史，并推断了过去的人口趋势。结果系统地理模式揭示了不同的进化历史：齿形金齿鼠表现出一个完善的、地理结构的谱系，而地中海金齿鼠则表现出最近扩张的星形模式特征。当前气候模型与过去和未来预测的气候模型的比较表明，由于持续的气候变化，齿齿苋的适宜栖息地可能会大幅减少，而与地中海齿齿苋竞争加剧可能会加剧这种情况。主要结论气候因素不能单独决定隐种的分布。历史和人口因素在形成它们目前的地理结构方面起着至关重要的作用。此外，人类介导的扩散和持续的气候变化可能对黑木耳种群的遗传和空间结构有影响。总的来说，探索历史、遗传和地理分布之间复杂的相互作用，可以克服气候模型相互矛盾的预测。

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来源期刊

Diversity and Distributions 环境科学-生态学

CiteScore

8.90

自引率

4.30%

发文量

195

审稿时长

8-16 weeks

期刊介绍： Diversity and Distributions is a journal of conservation biogeography. We publish papers that deal with the application of biogeographical principles, theories, and analyses (being those concerned with the distributional dynamics of taxa and assemblages) to problems concerning the conservation of biodiversity. We no longer consider papers the sole aim of which is to describe or analyze patterns of biodiversity or to elucidate processes that generate biodiversity.