The deviation characteristics and influencing factors of urban scaling laws in China: Superlinear systems

Abstract

Urban scaling laws provide a framework for analyzing how various socio-economic factors such as population size, infrastructure, and innovation interact and influence urban operations. Existing empirical studies on "superlinear scaling" often focus on nonlinear relationships between urban scale growth and indicators like urban functions and economic activities, lacking detailed comparative studies of scaling shifts and scientific explanations of underlying mechanisms, with determinations of influencing factors primarily based on qualitative discussions. Therefore, this paper adopts a superlinear perspective from economic, social, pollution, and energy consumption angles, utilizing least squares method and comparative analysis to identify scaling law deviations in China. The XGBoost + Shap value model method is employed to discern the intrinsic mechanisms influencing these deviations. The study identifies overall trends and two significant turning points in China's superlinear system, where urbanization processes, economic levels, policies, and natural geographic factors variably impact scaling law deviations.