ASEAN's Socialization of Myanmar: Perilous Ambivalence, the 2021 Coup and the Way Forward

Abstract

Abstract:Since Myanmar joined ASEAN in 1997, the organization has tried to socialize it in the belief that the country would steadily conform to the bloc's common purpose of preserving peace and stability in Southeast Asia. The Myanmar military's (Tatmadaw) ouster of the elected quasi-civilian government on 1 February 2021, and the ensuing political violence across the country, represent a critical opportunity for ASEAN to demonstrate that the organization remains committed to the aforementioned common purpose as well as the promotion of democratic principles and human rights. Given that ASEAN's efforts to socialize Myanmar have been neither consistent nor adequately followed through, the 2021 coup should not be regarded as an isolated event. The situation is further exacerbated by ASEAN's complacency regarding Myanmar's internal affairs during the National League for Democracy's (NLD) tenure between 2016 and 2021. During this period, the Tatmadaw conducted numerous human rights abuses, particularly against the Rohingya, and the political system was still heavily dominated by the military. Because of the inconsistent multilateral approach that ASEAN has adopted towards Myanmar, the organization now risks becoming entangled in great power competition. This entanglement resulted from a phase in ASEAN-Myanmar relations known as "perilous ambivalence", which would have significant repercussions for ASEAN's credibility, image and legitimacy on the global stage. To ensure that ASEAN remains at the centre of the Indo-Pacific security architecture, there is a need for a coherent long-term policy to monitor, engage and address any internal threats that could undermine peace and stability in the region through continuous enhanced interaction. The 2021 Myanmar coup d'état, and its subsequent fallout, provides a compelling case for such a policy.