全球化、贸易失衡与劳动力市场调整

IF 11.1 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Quarterly Journal of Economics Pub Date : 2023-01-02 DOI:10.1093/qje/qjac043
Rafael Dix-Carneiro, João Paulo Pessoa, Ricardo Reyes-Heroles, Sharon Traiberman
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引用次数: 7

摘要

摘要本文认为,建立贸易失衡模型对于理解应对全球化冲击的转型动态至关重要。我们建立并估计了一个具有两个关键要素的一般均衡、多国、多部门贸易模型:(i)由家庭消费和储蓄决策引起的内生贸易失衡;(ii)部门之间和部门内部的劳动力市场摩擦。我们使用我们的模型来执行几个实证练习。我们发现,2000年至2014年间,“中国冲击”占美国制造业衰退的28%,是贸易平衡模型预测的幅度的65倍。与此同时,美国服务业就业的增加导致总体失业率的反应微不足道。我们将模型对贸易收益的预测与流行的ACR充分统计方法进行对比。我们发现,我们对贸易和消费动态带来的长期收益的预测存在显著分歧。
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Globalization, Trade Imbalances, and Labor Market Adjustment
Abstract We argue that modeling trade imbalances is crucial for understanding transitional dynamics in response to globalization shocks. We build and estimate a general equilibrium, multicountry, multisector model of trade with two key ingredients: (i) endogenous trade imbalances arising from households’ consumption and saving decisions; (ii) labor market frictions across and within sectors. We use our model to perform several empirical exercises. We find that the “China shock” accounted for 28% of the decline in U.S. manufacturing between 2000 and 2014—1.65 times the magnitude predicted from a model imposing balanced trade. A concurrent rise in U.S. service employment led to a negligible aggregate unemployment response. We benchmark our model’s predictions for the gains from trade against the popular ACR sufficient-statistics approach. We find that our predictions for the long-run gains from trade and consumption dynamics significantly diverge.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
24.20
自引率
2.20%
发文量
42
期刊介绍: The Quarterly Journal of Economics stands as the oldest professional journal of economics in the English language. Published under the editorial guidance of Harvard University's Department of Economics, it comprehensively covers all aspects of the field. Esteemed by professional and academic economists as well as students worldwide, QJE holds unparalleled value in the economic discourse.
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