气候变化和区域供水能力对综合干旱风险的影响

IF 2.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Journal of Hydro-environment Research Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jher.2024.08.003
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引用次数: 0

摘要

由于气候变化,气象干旱的频率和持续时间都有所增加。此外,许多地区的当地供水能力无法满足用水需求,最终将导致严重缺水。为了减轻干旱对可持续用水的影响,有必要了解气候变化如何影响地区供水能力和干旱风险。为此,本研究评估了地区供水系统的干旱应对能力,并从干旱危害、脆弱性和应对能力三个方面评估了综合干旱风险。为避免风险分析的主观性,采用结构方程模型来选择主要指标,并使用概率和统计方法来分配指标权重。利用敏感性分析评估了不同气候变化情景下干旱风险的变化。总体结果表明,京畿、庆尚、忠清、全罗和江原的未来干旱风险分别比当前风险水平高出 18%、12%、13%、9% 和 10%。敏感性分析表明,抗旱能力较强的庆尚南道晋州的干旱风险下降幅度最大。未来气候变化情景下干旱风险的量化变化将有助于确定干旱风险较高的地区,并在气候变化下做出缓解干旱的决策。
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The effects of climate change and regional water supply capacity on integrated drought risk

Due to climate change, the frequency and duration of meteorological drought have increased. In addition, local water supply capacity has not met water demand in many regions, which will eventually lead to serious water shortages. To mitigate the effects of drought on sustainable water use, it is necessary to understand how climate change affects regional water supply capacity and drought risk. To this end, this study evaluated the drought response capacity of regional water supply systems and assessed the comprehensive drought risk in terms of drought hazard, vulnerability, and response capacity. To avoid subjectivity in risk analysis, structural equation modeling was used to select primary indicators and probability and statistical methods were used to assign weights to the indicators. The changes in drought risk in different climate change scenarios were assessed using sensitivity analyses. The overall results indicate that the future drought risks in Gyeonggi, Gyeongsang, Chungcheong, Jeolla, and Gangwon are 18, 12, 13, 9, and 10% higher, respectively, than the current risk level. The sensitivity analyses showed that Jinju in Gyeongsang province, which has a high drought response capacity, had the largest decreasing rate in drought risk. The quantified changes in drought risk under future climate change scenarios will be useful for identifying areas with a high drought risk and making decisions about drought mitigation under climate change.

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来源期刊
Journal of Hydro-environment Research
Journal of Hydro-environment Research ENGINEERING, CIVIL-ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
CiteScore
5.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
34
审稿时长
98 days
期刊介绍: The journal aims to provide an international platform for the dissemination of research and engineering applications related to water and hydraulic problems in the Asia-Pacific region. The journal provides a wide distribution at affordable subscription rate, as well as a rapid reviewing and publication time. The journal particularly encourages papers from young researchers. Papers that require extensive language editing, qualify for editorial assistance with American Journal Experts, a Language Editing Company that Elsevier recommends. Authors submitting to this journal are entitled to a 10% discount.
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