气候变化和区域供水能力对综合干旱风险的影响

IF 2.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Journal of Hydro-environment Research Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jher.2024.08.003
Ji Eun Kim , Min Ji Kim , Jeongwoo Han , Tae-Woong Kim
{"title":"气候变化和区域供水能力对综合干旱风险的影响","authors":"Ji Eun Kim ,&nbsp;Min Ji Kim ,&nbsp;Jeongwoo Han ,&nbsp;Tae-Woong Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.jher.2024.08.003","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Due to climate change, the frequency and duration of meteorological drought have increased. In addition, local water supply capacity has not met water demand in many regions, which will eventually lead to serious water shortages. To mitigate the effects of drought on sustainable water use, it is necessary to understand how climate change affects regional water supply capacity and drought risk. To this end, this study evaluated the drought response capacity of regional water supply systems and assessed the comprehensive drought risk in terms of drought hazard, vulnerability, and response capacity. To avoid subjectivity in risk analysis, structural equation modeling was used to select primary indicators and probability and statistical methods were used to assign weights to the indicators. The changes in drought risk in different climate change scenarios were assessed using sensitivity analyses. The overall results indicate that the future drought risks in Gyeonggi, Gyeongsang, Chungcheong, Jeolla, and Gangwon are 18, 12, 13, 9, and 10% higher, respectively, than the current risk level. The sensitivity analyses showed that Jinju in Gyeongsang province, which has a high drought response capacity, had the largest decreasing rate in drought risk. The quantified changes in drought risk under future climate change scenarios will be useful for identifying areas with a high drought risk and making decisions about drought mitigation under climate change.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":49303,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydro-environment Research","volume":"56 ","pages":"Pages 40-64"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The effects of climate change and regional water supply capacity on integrated drought risk\",\"authors\":\"Ji Eun Kim ,&nbsp;Min Ji Kim ,&nbsp;Jeongwoo Han ,&nbsp;Tae-Woong Kim\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jher.2024.08.003\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Due to climate change, the frequency and duration of meteorological drought have increased. In addition, local water supply capacity has not met water demand in many regions, which will eventually lead to serious water shortages. To mitigate the effects of drought on sustainable water use, it is necessary to understand how climate change affects regional water supply capacity and drought risk. To this end, this study evaluated the drought response capacity of regional water supply systems and assessed the comprehensive drought risk in terms of drought hazard, vulnerability, and response capacity. To avoid subjectivity in risk analysis, structural equation modeling was used to select primary indicators and probability and statistical methods were used to assign weights to the indicators. The changes in drought risk in different climate change scenarios were assessed using sensitivity analyses. The overall results indicate that the future drought risks in Gyeonggi, Gyeongsang, Chungcheong, Jeolla, and Gangwon are 18, 12, 13, 9, and 10% higher, respectively, than the current risk level. The sensitivity analyses showed that Jinju in Gyeongsang province, which has a high drought response capacity, had the largest decreasing rate in drought risk. The quantified changes in drought risk under future climate change scenarios will be useful for identifying areas with a high drought risk and making decisions about drought mitigation under climate change.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":49303,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Hydro-environment Research\",\"volume\":\"56 \",\"pages\":\"Pages 40-64\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Hydro-environment Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1570644324000431\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENGINEERING, CIVIL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Hydro-environment Research","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1570644324000431","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, CIVIL","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

由于气候变化,气象干旱的频率和持续时间都有所增加。此外,许多地区的当地供水能力无法满足用水需求,最终将导致严重缺水。为了减轻干旱对可持续用水的影响,有必要了解气候变化如何影响地区供水能力和干旱风险。为此,本研究评估了地区供水系统的干旱应对能力,并从干旱危害、脆弱性和应对能力三个方面评估了综合干旱风险。为避免风险分析的主观性,采用结构方程模型来选择主要指标,并使用概率和统计方法来分配指标权重。利用敏感性分析评估了不同气候变化情景下干旱风险的变化。总体结果表明,京畿、庆尚、忠清、全罗和江原的未来干旱风险分别比当前风险水平高出 18%、12%、13%、9% 和 10%。敏感性分析表明,抗旱能力较强的庆尚南道晋州的干旱风险下降幅度最大。未来气候变化情景下干旱风险的量化变化将有助于确定干旱风险较高的地区,并在气候变化下做出缓解干旱的决策。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
The effects of climate change and regional water supply capacity on integrated drought risk

Due to climate change, the frequency and duration of meteorological drought have increased. In addition, local water supply capacity has not met water demand in many regions, which will eventually lead to serious water shortages. To mitigate the effects of drought on sustainable water use, it is necessary to understand how climate change affects regional water supply capacity and drought risk. To this end, this study evaluated the drought response capacity of regional water supply systems and assessed the comprehensive drought risk in terms of drought hazard, vulnerability, and response capacity. To avoid subjectivity in risk analysis, structural equation modeling was used to select primary indicators and probability and statistical methods were used to assign weights to the indicators. The changes in drought risk in different climate change scenarios were assessed using sensitivity analyses. The overall results indicate that the future drought risks in Gyeonggi, Gyeongsang, Chungcheong, Jeolla, and Gangwon are 18, 12, 13, 9, and 10% higher, respectively, than the current risk level. The sensitivity analyses showed that Jinju in Gyeongsang province, which has a high drought response capacity, had the largest decreasing rate in drought risk. The quantified changes in drought risk under future climate change scenarios will be useful for identifying areas with a high drought risk and making decisions about drought mitigation under climate change.

求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Journal of Hydro-environment Research
Journal of Hydro-environment Research ENGINEERING, CIVIL-ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
CiteScore
5.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
34
审稿时长
98 days
期刊介绍: The journal aims to provide an international platform for the dissemination of research and engineering applications related to water and hydraulic problems in the Asia-Pacific region. The journal provides a wide distribution at affordable subscription rate, as well as a rapid reviewing and publication time. The journal particularly encourages papers from young researchers. Papers that require extensive language editing, qualify for editorial assistance with American Journal Experts, a Language Editing Company that Elsevier recommends. Authors submitting to this journal are entitled to a 10% discount.
期刊最新文献
Effect of submergence of sacrificial piles on local scour reduction at a bridge pier under U-type debris jam conditions Drag coefficients and water surface profiles in channels with arrays of linear rigid emergent vegetation Assessment of the impact of greenhouse rainwater harvesting managed aquifer recharge on the groundwater system in the southern Jeju Island, South Korea: Implication from a numerical modeling approach Real-time prediction of the week-ahead flood index using hybrid deep learning algorithms with synoptic climate mode indices Editorial Board
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1