Projected impacts of future climate change on the aboveground biomass of seagrasses at global scale

Abstract

Seagrasses are crucial marine ecosystems that have experienced declines due to anthropogenic and climate change impacts. The projected future climate change suggests additional seagrass losses, but no global-scale estimates are currently available on the potential changes in aboveground biomass of seagrasses. We modelled and quantified the current potential aboveground biomass (AGB) of seagrasses on the global scale and projected future AGB under contrasting Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, from low emissions (SSP1–1.9) to high emissions (SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5). A machine learning algorithm (Boosted Regression Trees) fitted a comprehensive AGB dataset against biological and anthropogenic meaningful predictors. The model performed with high accuracy (deviance explained: 0.83), highlighting the role of genus and temperature conditions in defining global AGB patterns. The model estimated a present-day average AGB of 133.83 gDW·m² (DW, dry weight) and a total global AGB of 0.0673 Pg DW. Future projections were highly dependent on the emission scenario, with losses in AGB ranging between 4.25 % and 9.25 % and in overall AGB between 9.96 % and 10.26 % across scenarios. Particularly, the higher emission scenario projected severe regional losses along the coastlines of the Tropical Eastern Pacific, the Eastern Indo-Pacific, the Temperate Northern Pacific, and the Tropical Atlantic, and gains along the Temperate Southern Africa and the Arctic regions. Our global estimates underline that fulfilling the Paris Agreement, as well as conserving and monitoring populations most affected by combined anthropogenic pressures would help to limit seagrass AGB declines, thereby supporting the multiple ecological services of seagrasses.