Mode choices under car-reducing scenarios: Measurable factors and latent attitudes

Abstract

The increasing use of private automobiles in cities has been linked with negative environmental effects, accidents and public space misuse. Several mitigation measures have been proposed, and fewer have been implemented, aiming to push drivers from using cars or to attract them to alternative modes of transport. This study overcomes literature gaps by developing a mode choice model that incorporates owned, public and shared modes under bundles of car-reducing measures, aspiring to achieve a shift from private cars towards modes with milder externalities, while also accounting for attitudinal factors. For this purpose, an online survey was conducted in Munich, Germany, collecting information about the respondents’ choices with car use constraints, their current travel behaviour, their sociodemographic characteristics and attitudes towards car ownership and the environment. Using exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and hybrid choice modelling (HCM), we determined that mode choices are not only influenced by the attributes of the modes but also by the personal characteristics of the respondents, their underlying attitudes and long-term mobility decisions. The obtained model was applied to a sensitivity analysis highlighting the proposed measures’ potential to reduce the share of private cars. The results revealed that improving conditions for active mobility and reducing the speed limit for road traffic could yield the highest reduction in private car use among the proposed measures. This study could have important behavioural implications for policymakers and lays the ground for an extensive simulation-based policy assessment.