The emerging “evident” role of climatic risk on migration: a study of four U.S. metropolitans

The growing public awareness of climate risks and increased investments in climate adaptation may trigger resettlements, redistributing climate risks among population groups, and resulting in social consequences like segregation and gentrification. Previous studies have empirically examined the influences of climate risks on migrants’ destination choices, however, few have conducted research at the intra-municipal level, and even fewer have considered the associated social impacts. The research supplements empirical evidence on climate migration by examining the influence of climate risks on migrants’ destination choices within vulnerable municipalities. Specifically, we calibrated place-specific Bayesian Networks with migration data collected from four U.S. metropolitans with known climate risks. We then explained how climate risks influence migrants’ destination choices for the four study cases referring to the developed models. The modeling results reveal distinct main drivers influencing migrants’ choices of move-in neighborhoods across the study cases. In New Orleans, Louisana, high-elevation neighborhoods may experience gentrification due to the influx of educated migrants. In the other cases, the heterogeneous socio-demographic flows influenced by climate risks are likely to compound pre-existing injustices including social segregation and economic divide. The study contributes to the needing empirical evidence regarding the impact of climate risks on migration, which may exacerbate or raise social issues over the long term. The research findings also inform future climate adaptation efforts for building more inclusive receiving communities.