To address multiple challenges including food security, resource scarcity, and environmental degradation, China is prioritizing non-grain governance (NGG) as a key strategy, yet lacks an actionable governance framework. This paper proposes an integrated approach combining non-grain level (NGL) control (Measure 1) with crop spatial reallocation (Measure 2), thereby establishing a three-tier governance framework for non-grain conversion (NGC) at the “national-agricultural region-county levels”. Based on China’s 2020 grain production capacity, we project pathways to meet grain demand under 2030 population scenarios and evaluate the impacts of three policy scenarios on sustainable agricultural development. Simulation results for 2020–2030 show that, compared to Scenario 1 (no measure 1 & no measure 2 → a 25.56% increase in imports), Scenario 2 (no measure 1 & with measure 2 → partial imports) could fulfill up to 84% of food demand through optimized crop spatial allocation. This import reduction would save approximately 16.43% of global arable land use, 16.59% of global water consumption, 16.36% of global energy use, and 15.80% of global carbon emissions associated with trade. Scenario 3 (with measure 1 & with measure 2 → self-sufficiency) could achieve full grain self-sufficiency by constraining the non-grain level to ≤ 28% through integrated control and spatial optimization, thereby avoiding additional global resource consumption. However, this scenario would increase domestic water and energy stress and constrain farmers’ net income. For China’s nine major agricultural regions and their 2,668 counties, the management focus should shift from merely monitoring the surface-level rate of farmland conversion to non-grain uses, to a more critical assessment of its tangible impacts on grain production and environmental pollution. Accordingly, stringent protection measures are required, particularly for counties within core production areas such as the Northeast China Plain and the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. The proposed three-tier governance system offers a scalable framework for addressing the intertwined challenges of food security, resource conservation, and global ecological responsibilities.
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