Optimizing the spatial pattern of carbon storage is of great significance for increasing the carbon sink capacity of regional ecosystems and maintaining regional carbon balance. Taking the Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River Basin as an example, combined with InVEST and PLUS models, the carbon storage and spatial distribution pattern of the ecosystem in the study area in 2030 were predicted under three different scenarios: natural development, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection. The pattern of carbon storage in the study area was optimized using a Bayesian network model with decision optimization ability. The results showed that: ① Carbon storage in the study area showed a downward trend from 2000 to 2020, with a total decrease of 4 797.63×104 t, mainly due to the conversion of cultivated land and forest land to construction land. ② In 2030, the carbon storage under the ecological protection scenario of the study area was 38 528.91×104 t, showing an increasing trend, while the carbon storage under the other two scenarios showed a decreasing trend. ③ By using the Bayesian network model, key variables and key state subsets were selected, and the study area was divided into four types of optimal zones: ecological protection area, cultivated land protection area, water conservation area, and economic construction area. This study sought to clarify the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of carbon storage in the Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River Basin, predict its future development trend, and optimize its spatial pattern, which is conducive to the sustainable development of land use in the basin and provides reference for promoting the "dual carbon" goal of the basin.
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