The paper proposes two econometric models of inflation for Azerbaijan: one based on monthly data and eclectic, another based on quarterly data and takes into account disequilibrium at the money market. Inflation regression based on monthly data showed that consumer prices dynamics is explained by money growth (the more money, the higher the inflation), exchange rate behaviour (appreciation drives disinflation), commodities price dynamics (“imported” inflation) and administrative changes in regulated prices. For the quarterly model, nominal money demand equation (with inflation, real non-oil GDP and nominal interest rate on foreign currency deposits as predictors) and money supply equation were estimated, and error-correction mechanism from money demand equation was included into inflation equation. It is shown that disequilibrium at the money market (supply higher than demand) drives inflation together with money supply growth and nominal exchange rate depreciation and administrative changes in prices. No cost-push variables appeared to be significant in this equation specification. Both models give similar inflation projections, but sudden changes in money demand (2012) lead to significant differences between the projections. It is shown that money is the most important inflation determinant that explains up to 97.8% of CPI growth between 2012 and 2015, and that in order to keep inflation under control the Central Bank of Azerbaijan should link money supply to real non-oil GDP growth.
{"title":"Two Exercises of Inflation Modelling and Forecasting for Azerbaijan","authors":"A. Chubrik, P. Woźniak, G. Hajiyeva","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2008151","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2008151","url":null,"abstract":"The paper proposes two econometric models of inflation for Azerbaijan: one based on monthly data and eclectic, another based on quarterly data and takes into account disequilibrium at the money market. Inflation regression based on monthly data showed that consumer prices dynamics is explained by money growth (the more money, the higher the inflation), exchange rate behaviour (appreciation drives disinflation), commodities price dynamics (“imported” inflation) and administrative changes in regulated prices. For the quarterly model, nominal money demand equation (with inflation, real non-oil GDP and nominal interest rate on foreign currency deposits as predictors) and money supply equation were estimated, and error-correction mechanism from money demand equation was included into inflation equation. It is shown that disequilibrium at the money market (supply higher than demand) drives inflation together with money supply growth and nominal exchange rate depreciation and administrative changes in prices. No cost-push variables appeared to be significant in this equation specification. Both models give similar inflation projections, but sudden changes in money demand (2012) lead to significant differences between the projections. It is shown that money is the most important inflation determinant that explains up to 97.8% of CPI growth between 2012 and 2015, and that in order to keep inflation under control the Central Bank of Azerbaijan should link money supply to real non-oil GDP growth.","PeriodicalId":159385,"journal":{"name":"CASE Network Studies and Analyses","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130356098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
J. Hölscher, Mariusz Jarmuzek, R. Matousek, É. Polgár
Fiscal transparency became a topic of lively public and academic debate in the aftermath of the Mexican and Asian financial crises. The concept of fiscal transparency is, however, largely of a qualitative nature and is therefore something of a challenge to measure. This paper proposes an index of fiscal transparency that comprises various aspects of fiscal policy formulation, such as medium-term budgeting and analysis, accounting and data quality, off-budgetary activity, intergovernmental relations and auditing. The index is compiled for twenty seven transition economies and is based on a detailed analysis of the actual information disclosed. Analysis of the fiscal transparency index shows a clear pattern indicating that CEE countries stand out from the other two groups across all categories. This seems to be the result of the anchoring of the New Member States in the EU’s structures and procedures. SEE countries are behind the first group, experiencing serious difficulties in budgetary process and reporting standards. The CIS countries still have a long way to go to meet international standards. They must enhance budgetary practices and accounting procedures, as they lag behind the above groups most clearly in this regard.
{"title":"Fiscal Transparency in Transition Economies","authors":"J. Hölscher, Mariusz Jarmuzek, R. Matousek, É. Polgár","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.1437512","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.1437512","url":null,"abstract":"Fiscal transparency became a topic of lively public and academic debate in the aftermath of the Mexican and Asian financial crises. The concept of fiscal transparency is, however, largely of a qualitative nature and is therefore something of a challenge to measure. This paper proposes an index of fiscal transparency that comprises various aspects of fiscal policy formulation, such as medium-term budgeting and analysis, accounting and data quality, off-budgetary activity, intergovernmental relations and auditing. The index is compiled for twenty seven transition economies and is based on a detailed analysis of the actual information disclosed. Analysis of the fiscal transparency index shows a clear pattern indicating that CEE countries stand out from the other two groups across all categories. This seems to be the result of the anchoring of the New Member States in the EU’s structures and procedures. SEE countries are behind the first group, experiencing serious difficulties in budgetary process and reporting standards. The CIS countries still have a long way to go to meet international standards. They must enhance budgetary practices and accounting procedures, as they lag behind the above groups most clearly in this regard.","PeriodicalId":159385,"journal":{"name":"CASE Network Studies and Analyses","volume":"72 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130141504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper discusses the link between the deficit bias in public finance and institutional settings. The Polish experience is put in a wider context and provides an extensive discussion of possible institutional reforms that may be implemented to stabilise the path of fiscal policy and reduce the deficit bias. Although substantial improvements have been made in Poland with respect to fiscal transparency standards set by the IMF and EU there is still much scope for enhancement. The recommended change in fiscal policy would involve the implementation of medium-term budgetary framework that would ensure consistency between the budgetary process and medium-term fiscal goals. This should be accompanied by the introduction of binding constraints on fiscal policy. The expenditure rule could be reintroduced to strengthen fiscal discipline, as it could force policymakers to tighten fiscal policy. It seems to be indispensable to maintain fiscal rules at the local government level. The issue of still limited fiscal transparency and unsatisfactory performance of fiscal rules requires the undertaking of various appropriate measures to strengthen the policy framework in Poland. This can be done in our view by involving external institution entitled to examine fiscal transparency and the performance of fiscal rules in the budgetary process. We think that the institution that is fully capable to take the lead in this respect is the NIK, which was granted full independence in 1994 and has since proved to be successful in overseeing public finances. This should, however, be accompanied by simultaneous enhancement of the internal audit.
{"title":"Fiscal transparency and policy rules in Poland","authors":"Rafal Benecki, J. Hölscher, Mariusz Jarmuzek","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.1437513","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.1437513","url":null,"abstract":"This paper discusses the link between the deficit bias in public finance and institutional settings. The Polish experience is put in a wider context and provides an extensive discussion of possible institutional reforms that may be implemented to stabilise the path of fiscal policy and reduce the deficit bias. Although substantial improvements have been made in Poland with respect to fiscal transparency standards set by the IMF and EU there is still much scope for enhancement. The recommended change in fiscal policy would involve the implementation of medium-term budgetary framework that would ensure consistency between the budgetary process and medium-term fiscal goals. This should be accompanied by the introduction of binding constraints on fiscal policy. The expenditure rule could be reintroduced to strengthen fiscal discipline, as it could force policymakers to tighten fiscal policy. It seems to be indispensable to maintain fiscal rules at the local government level. The issue of still limited fiscal transparency and unsatisfactory performance of fiscal rules requires the undertaking of various appropriate measures to strengthen the policy framework in Poland. This can be done in our view by involving external institution entitled to examine fiscal transparency and the performance of fiscal rules in the budgetary process. We think that the institution that is fully capable to take the lead in this respect is the NIK, which was granted full independence in 1994 and has since proved to be successful in overseeing public finances. This should, however, be accompanied by simultaneous enhancement of the internal audit.","PeriodicalId":159385,"journal":{"name":"CASE Network Studies and Analyses","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125557511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper analyses possible consequences of the EU enlargement on the EU – CIS-7 trade. It considers current situation in trade between two country groups, describes the factors limiting this trade, and discusses the opportunities for the trade associated with the EU accession of the Central and East European countries with strong historical ties to the CIS-7. The paper concludes that the EU enlargement creates some potential for expansion of trade and, importantly, exports from CIS-7 to Europe.
{"title":"CIS-7 Perspective on Trade with EU in the Context of EU Enlargement","authors":"Roman Mogilevsky","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.1441164","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.1441164","url":null,"abstract":"The paper analyses possible consequences of the EU enlargement on the EU – CIS-7 trade. It considers current situation in trade between two country groups, describes the factors limiting this trade, and discusses the opportunities for the trade associated with the EU accession of the Central and East European countries with strong historical ties to the CIS-7. The paper concludes that the EU enlargement creates some potential for expansion of trade and, importantly, exports from CIS-7 to Europe.","PeriodicalId":159385,"journal":{"name":"CASE Network Studies and Analyses","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123645282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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