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Comparative Grand Strategy最新文献

英文 中文
India 印度
Pub Date : 2019-05-28 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198840848.003.0008
C. C. Fair
This chapter maps the historic foundations of Indian grand strategy and the obstacles that have precluded the realization of a new one. First, it describes the elements of Nehru’s grand strategy, and the ways and means that India adopted to pursue them. Second, it examines the factors that have galvanized debates about discarding these Nehruvian commitments. Third, it describes the various contemporary, contending schools of thought about what India’s grand strategy should be. Fourth, it explores the various bureaucratic and political obstacles to transitioning away from this Nehruvian past. The fifth section argues that what has resulted is a form of incrementalism that has nonetheless precipitated important changes in India’s political, diplomatic, and military behavior away from these past Nehruvian commitments. The chapter concludes on a skeptical note by questioning whether the contemporary Indian administration will be able to craft a coherent grand strategy, given the vociferous nature of India’s democracy and decentralized political structure.
这一章描绘了印度大战略的历史基础和阻碍实现新战略的障碍。首先,它描述了尼赫鲁大战略的要素,以及印度采取的实现这些战略的方式和手段。其次,它考察了引发关于放弃这些尼赫鲁承诺的辩论的因素。第三,它描述了关于印度大战略应该是什么的当代各种相互竞争的思想流派。第四,它探讨了从尼赫鲁的过去过渡的各种官僚主义和政治障碍。第五部分认为,其结果是一种渐进主义的形式,尽管如此,它还是促成了印度政治、外交和军事行为的重大变化,远离了过去尼赫鲁式的承诺。这一章以怀疑的口吻结束,质疑当代印度政府是否能够制定一个连贯的大战略,考虑到印度民主的喧嚣本质和分散的政治结构。
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引用次数: 1
Brazil 巴西
Pub Date : 2019-05-28 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198840848.003.0007
C. Milani, Tiago Nery
After the civil-military dictatorship (1964–1985), the Brazilian re-democratization process coincided with a “double divorce.” The first was between foreign policy and defense policy, the second between military and civilian authorities. It was only in the aftermath of the inauguration of the 1988 Constitution that the Brazilian federal government began constructing a bridge between these two public policies, their respective administrations, and attendant constituencies under the aegis of a democratic regime. Cardoso’s government began implementing a strategy aimed at placing the armed forces under civilian control. But it was during Lula’s and Rousseff’s subsequent administration’s that they laid out a “sketch of Brazil’s grand strategy,” interrupted by Rousseff’s 2016 controversial impeachment.Â?In this context, we analyze the main challenges concerning the conception and the implementation of Brazil’s grand strategy between 2003 and 2014, thus demonstrating how Brazil’s domestic politics and its development model together played key roles in this process.
在文官军事独裁统治(1964-1985)之后,巴西的再民主化进程伴随着“双重离婚”。第一次是外交政策和国防政策之间的冲突,第二次是军方和文职当局之间的冲突。直到1988年宪法生效之后,巴西联邦政府才开始在民主政权的庇护下,在这两种公共政策、各自的行政部门和随之而来的选区之间架起一座桥梁。卡多佐政府开始实施一项旨在将武装部队置于文官控制之下的战略。但正是在卢拉和罗塞夫随后的政府期间,他们制定了“巴西大战略的草图”,被罗塞夫2016年备受争议的impeachment.Â?在此背景下,我们分析了2003年至2014年巴西大战略构想和实施过程中面临的主要挑战,从而展示了巴西国内政治及其发展模式在这一过程中如何共同发挥了关键作用。
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引用次数: 0
Russia 俄罗斯
Pub Date : 2019-05-28 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198840848.003.0003
Céline Marangé
This chapter argues that Russia’s current leadership has consistently promoted a grand strategy that is fundamentally defensive in nature and offensive in practice. It has prioritized security and the quest for recognition in assuming that Russia’s status has been purposely diminished, and that the strategic environment poses a tangible threat to both Russian national interests and the regime’s survival. The institutional setting and strategic culture play a crucial role in the formulation of a strategic security agenda. Although defensive in character and reactive in nature, Russian strategies have embraced bold, proactive, and transformational agendas that have extended beyond military activity. New ways and means have been developed to heighten Russia’s security, assert regional dominance, and attain global recognition. Russia’s leadership not only resorts to military interventions and hybrid warfare and to strategic deterrence and intimidation, but also to comprehensive influence and political destabilization, while using military rhetoric and victories to conceal its domestic shortcomings.
本章认为,俄罗斯目前的领导层一直在推行一项本质上是防御性的、实际上是进攻性的大战略。它认为俄罗斯的地位被故意削弱,战略环境对俄罗斯的国家利益和政权的生存构成了切实的威胁,因此将安全和寻求承认放在首位。体制环境和战略文化在制定战略安全议程中发挥着至关重要的作用。尽管俄罗斯的战略具有防御性和反应性的特点,但俄罗斯的战略包含了大胆、主动和转型的议程,这些议程已经超越了军事活动。新的途径和手段已经发展起来,以加强俄罗斯的安全,维护地区主导地位,并获得全球认可。俄罗斯领导层不仅诉诸军事干预和混合战争、战略威慑和恐吓,而且还利用军事辞令和胜利掩盖其国内缺点,全面施加影响和破坏政治稳定。
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引用次数: 1
The European Union 欧盟
Pub Date : 2019-05-28 DOI: 10.1787/d974f297-en
Daniel Fiott, Luis Simón
Many theorists and policymakers may be surprised to learn that an international organization, such as the European Union, has the capacity to form and articulate its own grand strategy. However, identifying “who” makes EU grand strategy is challenging. A range of institutions and actors play a role in the formulation, consolidation, and execution of the EU’s grand strategy. These institutions, together with EU member states, define “grand strategy” in differing ways. Furthermore, some actors are more conscious than others that they are actually engaged in “grand strategy”–making rather than simply debating policies. This chapter identifies the leading actors in EU grand strategy; why and how these actors pursue grand strategy goals using a variety of instruments; discusses what those goals have been; and the prospects for their attainment.
许多理论家和政策制定者可能会惊讶地发现,一个国际组织,如欧盟,有能力形成和阐明自己的大战略。然而,确定“谁”制定欧盟的大战略是一项挑战。一系列机构和行动者在欧盟大战略的制定、巩固和执行中发挥着作用。这些机构与欧盟成员国一起,以不同的方式定义“大战略”。此外,一些参与者比其他人更意识到,他们实际上是在参与“大战略”制定,而不仅仅是讨论政策。本章确定了欧盟大战略的主要参与者;这些行为者为什么以及如何使用各种工具来实现大战略目标;讨论这些目标是什么;以及实现这些目标的前景。
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引用次数: 0
China 中国
Pub Date : 2019-05-28 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198840848.003.0004
Andrew S. Erickson
Scholars still debate the very notion of a Chinese grand strategy. Nonetheless, recent leadership and policy statements, and their explicit linkage to historical patterns of Chinese behavior, suggest that China may well have the most forthright example of a grand strategy of any major power today. This chapter is composed of five parts in substantiating that claim. First, it survey’s Xi’s contemporary grand strategy. Second, it discusses the historical foundations of Xi’s initiatives. Third, it lists the modern factors that shape and complicate China’s grand strategic efforts. Fourth, it examines the two major contemporary prongs that link the global to the national strategy: the external Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aimed at binding Eurasia to China through infrastructure and commercial development; and the internal efforts to consolidate societal stability with a stronger surveillance state. Together, the chapter argues, these initiatives are designed to mitigate the impact of demographic decline and an S-curved slowdown in the growth of China’s economy, with the goal of buttressing other elements of national power to facilitate China’s re-emergence.
学者们仍在争论中国大战略的概念。尽管如此,最近的领导层和政策声明,以及它们与中国历史行为模式的明确联系,表明中国很可能是当今大国中最直率的大战略榜样。本章分为五个部分来证明这一说法。第三,它列出了塑造和复杂化中国大战略努力的现代因素。第四,研究了将全球战略与国家战略联系起来的当代两个主要方面:旨在通过基础设施和商业发展将欧亚大陆与中国联系起来的外部“一带一路”倡议(BRI);内部努力通过更强的监控来巩固社会稳定。本章认为,这些举措旨在减轻人口下降和中国经济增长s曲线放缓的影响,其目标是支持国家实力的其他要素,以促进中国的重新崛起。
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引用次数: 0
Israel 以色列
Pub Date : 2019-05-28 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198840848.003.0010
Eitan Shamir
A traditional approach views grand strategy as primarily concerned with a state’s external affairs: consolidating national security by employing a combination of state capabilities that utilize economic, diplomatic, and military power instruments. Israel’s founders, in contrast, stressed the importance of internal factors such as legitimacy, social cohesion, and economic disparity as essential conditions for national survival. Bearing these benchmark features in mind, Israel’s varied, enduring challenges continue to raise the dilemma of what constitutes both the theoretical and practical boundaries of the country’s grand strategy. Indeed, an examination of the country’s strategic blueprint reveals a constant ambivalence—between focusing on domestic issues and the urgent need to respond to security and diplomatic challenges. The continuous definition and redefinition of what comprises grand strategy reflect the various forces in play in shaping the country’s strategic choices, in the context of an environment where these three founding considerations are continually challenged.
传统的方法认为大战略主要关注国家的对外事务:通过综合运用国家能力,利用经济、外交和军事力量手段来巩固国家安全。相比之下,以色列的缔造者强调合法性、社会凝聚力和经济差距等内部因素是国家生存的必要条件。考虑到这些基准特征,以色列各种各样的、持久的挑战继续使其陷入两难境地,即什么构成了该国大战略的理论和实践边界。事实上,对国家战略蓝图的审视揭示了一种持续的矛盾——既关注国内问题,又迫切需要应对安全和外交挑战。对“大战略”的不断定义和重新定义,反映了在形成国家战略选择的过程中发挥作用的各种力量,而这三个建国考量不断受到挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Saudi Arabia 沙特阿拉伯
Pub Date : 2019-05-28 DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198840848.003.0011
Ghaidaa Hetou
This chapter evaluates the formulation, implementation, and consistency of Saudi Arabia’s grand strategy since 1979. It examines how internal and regional factors influenced that strategy through the optic of a series of critical regional turning points, often overlain by shifting US debates on the Kingdom’s regional role. The chapter delineates why Saudi elites prioritize certain long-term objectives, how they perceive threats, and why they respond in specific ways. Its guiding conceptual framework is informed by four elements: the Kingdom’s dominant strategic culture, its political system, perception of national security, and regional alliance formations. The chapter demonstrates how the current Saudi establishment’s ability to sustain a grand strategy—primarily a regional role—is closely linked to its economic power, financial solvency, and internal stability.
本章评估了1979年以来沙特阿拉伯大战略的制定、实施和一致性。它通过一系列关键的地区转折点考察了内部和地区因素是如何影响这一战略的,这些转折点往往被美国关于沙特阿拉伯地区角色的辩论所覆盖。本章描述了为什么沙特精英优先考虑某些长期目标,他们如何看待威胁,以及为什么他们以特定的方式做出反应。它的指导概念框架由四个要素构成:王国的主导战略文化、政治制度、国家安全观念和区域联盟形成。本章展示了当前沙特当局维持大战略(主要是地区角色)的能力是如何与其经济实力、金融偿付能力和内部稳定紧密联系在一起的。
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引用次数: 0
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Comparative Grand Strategy
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