Jorge H. N. Viana, Márcia M. G. Alcoforado de Moraes, Ignacio Tavares Araujo Jr
This paper develops a CGE model to assess the economic impact of possible reductions in water availability on agriculture. To build the model various methodological tools were required. Translog production functions for the agricultural sector and the Water & Sewer sector (WS) were all estimated based on the Brazilian 2006 Agricultural Census and the National Sanitation Information System (NSIS) respectively. The CGE model was calibrated using 2009 national input-output data and incorporating the estimated demand system and production functions parameters previously estimated. We simulated three scenarios involving exogenously restrictions of water availability for agricultural sectors by 10%, 20% and 30% thus yielding endogenous tariffs or willingness to pay (WTP) for water use in each of the agricultural sectors. The revenues of these rates remained under government domain in these three standard scenarios. In addition, two other scenarios were simulated with water restriction of 30%, but with the revenues from these tariffs passed on directly to the families or used to subsidize the WS sector. Among the various results, the reduction in the total demand for raw water was greater than the reduction for agriculture production, with the former reaching 18,44% under a water restriction of 30%. As for total production, the greater reduction was 0.39% under a water restriction of 30%. Tariffs on water use obtained endogenously were much higher than those currently leveled in some regions in Brazil. Conversely to what is presented here, the model can simulate various exogenously raw water tariffs for the two sectors (agricultural and WS) and measure the resulting economic impacts. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first CGE model developed for Brazil that both actually incorporate endogenous demand for water as part of agricultural production and does so by using econometric estimates of the parameters of that demand.
{"title":"Impacts of a Reduction in Water Availability for Agriculture in Brazil","authors":"Jorge H. N. Viana, Márcia M. G. Alcoforado de Moraes, Ignacio Tavares Araujo Jr","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3195243","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3195243","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops a CGE model to assess the economic impact of possible reductions in water availability on agriculture. To build the model various methodological tools were required. Translog production functions for the agricultural sector and the Water & Sewer sector (WS) were all estimated based on the Brazilian 2006 Agricultural Census and the National Sanitation Information System (NSIS) respectively. The CGE model was calibrated using 2009 national input-output data and incorporating the estimated demand system and production functions parameters previously estimated. We simulated three scenarios involving exogenously restrictions of water availability for agricultural sectors by 10%, 20% and 30% thus yielding endogenous tariffs or willingness to pay (WTP) for water use in each of the agricultural sectors. The revenues of these rates remained under government domain in these three standard scenarios. In addition, two other scenarios were simulated with water restriction of 30%, but with the revenues from these tariffs passed on directly to the families or used to subsidize the WS sector. Among the various results, the reduction in the total demand for raw water was greater than the reduction for agriculture production, with the former reaching 18,44% under a water restriction of 30%. As for total production, the greater reduction was 0.39% under a water restriction of 30%. Tariffs on water use obtained endogenously were much higher than those currently leveled in some regions in Brazil. Conversely to what is presented here, the model can simulate various exogenously raw water tariffs for the two sectors (agricultural and WS) and measure the resulting economic impacts. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first CGE model developed for Brazil that both actually incorporate endogenous demand for water as part of agricultural production and does so by using econometric estimates of the parameters of that demand.","PeriodicalId":164380,"journal":{"name":"AARN: Politics & Water Use (Sub-Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130245108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The research presented in this paper focuses on the sustainable use of water resources in Russia based on a Foresight study with a 20-year time horizon. The study uses a scenario-planning method to develop four trajectories: economic depression, economic stagnation, visionary future, and national priority. These four trajectories offer significantly different yet plausible alternative futures. The current paper draws upon the earlier horizon scanning activity, which identified a set of trends, weak signals and wild cards, along with their implications for water resources in Russia. Based on this work, it identifies key factors and indicators, which may characterize future developments in the following domains: (i) the sustainability of water systems; (ii) water use by households and industry; and (iii) new water products and services. The evolution of variables and indicators will then be considered under the scenarios termed ‘Nearly perfect future’ (economic growth), ‘Problem conservation’ (economic stagnation), ‘Losses and accidents’ (economic depression), and ‘National priority’ trajectories. The paper concludes with a brief description of further research directions, including a discussion on the probability of the scenarios being implemented. Russian policy makers and water companies may use the scenarios to adapt (i.e. plan for timely responses), avert certain undesirable future developments, or approximate the visionary future of the sector
{"title":"Russia’s Water Resources 2030: Plausible Scenarios","authors":"O. Saritas, L. Proskuryakova, Sergey Sivaev","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2634935","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2634935","url":null,"abstract":"The research presented in this paper focuses on the sustainable use of water resources in Russia based on a Foresight study with a 20-year time horizon. The study uses a scenario-planning method to develop four trajectories: economic depression, economic stagnation, visionary future, and national priority. These four trajectories offer significantly different yet plausible alternative futures. The current paper draws upon the earlier horizon scanning activity, which identified a set of trends, weak signals and wild cards, along with their implications for water resources in Russia. Based on this work, it identifies key factors and indicators, which may characterize future developments in the following domains: (i) the sustainability of water systems; (ii) water use by households and industry; and (iii) new water products and services. The evolution of variables and indicators will then be considered under the scenarios termed ‘Nearly perfect future’ (economic growth), ‘Problem conservation’ (economic stagnation), ‘Losses and accidents’ (economic depression), and ‘National priority’ trajectories. The paper concludes with a brief description of further research directions, including a discussion on the probability of the scenarios being implemented. Russian policy makers and water companies may use the scenarios to adapt (i.e. plan for timely responses), avert certain undesirable future developments, or approximate the visionary future of the sector","PeriodicalId":164380,"journal":{"name":"AARN: Politics & Water Use (Sub-Topic)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128537068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2013-09-09DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199985265.001.0001
R. Abers, M. Keck
How do institutional arrangements established by law become operational in practice? It takes work for them to develop problem-solving capabilities and win recognition from others — what the authors call "practical authority." Drawing from a decade-long, multi-site study of efforts to transform freshwater management in Brazil, the authors show how an assortment of protagonists -- from state officials to university professors to activists -- struggled to breathe life into new institutional designs. Their account weaves together three decades of national and state law-making with experimentation in establishing new kinds of participatory water management organizations. Exploring this process in sixteen river basins, the authors examine why some of those organizations adapted creatively to challenges while others never got off the ground. To approach this complex, volatile, and non-linear process of transformation, they develop a framework for investigating the actions and practices of institution-building.
{"title":"Practical Authority: Agency and Institutional Change in Brazilian Water Politics - Excerpts","authors":"R. Abers, M. Keck","doi":"10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199985265.001.0001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199985265.001.0001","url":null,"abstract":"How do institutional arrangements established by law become operational in practice? It takes work for them to develop problem-solving capabilities and win recognition from others — what the authors call \"practical authority.\" Drawing from a decade-long, multi-site study of efforts to transform freshwater management in Brazil, the authors show how an assortment of protagonists -- from state officials to university professors to activists -- struggled to breathe life into new institutional designs. Their account weaves together three decades of national and state law-making with experimentation in establishing new kinds of participatory water management organizations. Exploring this process in sixteen river basins, the authors examine why some of those organizations adapted creatively to challenges while others never got off the ground. To approach this complex, volatile, and non-linear process of transformation, they develop a framework for investigating the actions and practices of institution-building.","PeriodicalId":164380,"journal":{"name":"AARN: Politics & Water Use (Sub-Topic)","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115128344","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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