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Rainfall variability and trends over Rwanda 卢旺达的降雨变异性和趋势
Pub Date : 2022-06-21 DOI: 10.20987/jccs.04.06.2022
Sebaziga Ndakize Joseph, Safaris Bonfils, Ngaina Ndiwa Joshua, Ntwali Didier, Mutai Bethwel Kipkoech, Safari Abdou, Rwema Michel
Rainfall is regarded as one of the foundational concepts for comprehending climate variability and/or change. This paper aimed at examining the seasonal and annual rainfall variability and its associated trends over Rwanda between 1981 and 2017. The Coefficient of Variation (CV) was used to determine the rainfall variability. Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator techniques were used to detect trends and to quantify the magnitude of change. High rainfall variability was observed over eastern Rwanda, around Kigali city and central plateau, while the south-western, western and the north highland revealed lower rainfall variability. Trend analysis of annual and March-May (MAM) rainfall season depicted a significant decrease of -6.7% over south-western region (Kamembe-Aero station) and -9.8% over eastern parts (Kibungo-Kazo) respectively. A significant increase in trend of 4.3% over North-western (Gisenyi-Aero station) during September-December (SOND) season was also obtained. The rest of the stations registered a non-significant trend on both seasonal and annual time scales. Spatially, areas of Kigali City, eastern and central parts of Rwanda revealed a decreasing trend whereas an increasing trend was observed over the western, northern highland, north eastern and southern region except for the areas towards the south-east. The high rainfall variability and significant nature of changing trends demand that rain-dependent sectors of the economy link climate science and policy in order to make proper planning. With proper climate homogeneity zoning, the agricultural sector in particular needs to develop effective techniques that optimize food production including water use rationalisation.
降雨被认为是理解气候变率和/或变化的基本概念之一。本文旨在研究1981年至2017年间卢旺达的季节和年降雨量变化及其相关趋势。变异系数(Coefficient of Variation, CV)用于确定降雨的变异度。使用Mann-Kendall检验和Sen斜率估计技术来检测趋势和量化变化的幅度。卢旺达东部、基加利市周围和中部高原的降雨量变化较大,而西南、西部和北部高原的降雨量变化较小。全年和3 - 5月(MAM)降水趋势分析显示,西南地区(Kamembe-Aero站)和东部地区(Kibungo-Kazo)分别显著减少-6.7%和-9.8%。9 - 12月(冬季)西北(吉塞尼- aero站)也有显著增加4.3%的趋势。其余监测站在季节和年时间尺度上都没有显著的趋势。从空间上看,基加利市、卢旺达东部和中部地区呈现减少趋势,而西部、北部高地、东北部和南部地区则呈现增加趋势,东南方向地区除外。降雨的高变率和变化趋势的显著性质要求依赖降雨的经济部门将气候科学与政策联系起来,以便作出适当的规划。有了适当的气候同质性分区,农业部门尤其需要开发有效的技术,优化粮食生产,包括水资源合理化。
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引用次数: 1
Analysis of Climate Change Indices in Musanze District, Rwanda 卢旺达Musanze地区气候变化指数分析
Pub Date : 2022-06-03 DOI: 10.20987/jccs.03.06.2022
Anthony Twahirwa, C. Oludhe, P. Omondi, G. Rwanyiziri, Sebaziga Ndakize, Sandrine Guhirwa
This study used daily rainfall, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature data from the Rwanda Meteorology Agency (Meteo Rwanda) for the years 1983 - 2016 to analyze climate change indices in the Musanze district of Rwanda. Rainfall and temperature extreme indices were determined using the methodology provided by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI). Climate Data Tool (CDT), which is R-based package developed by International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) was used to compute the indices. Sen's slope estimator and the modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test were both applied to identify trends and determine the degree of change. The Monthly Temperature (TXx, TXn, TNx, and TNn) indices generally showed a warming in the eastern and a cooling in the western parts of the district, according to the trend results; however, the Minimum tail of temperature indices showed a slightly reduced cooling which is a sign of warm nights and hot days in highland areas of volcanic region. For the same period, the district's eastern regions have higher precipitation intensity and wetness, which gradually declines toward the middle and western regions. In addition, a considerable upward trend in the annual total precipitation for days above the 95th percentile (very wet days) and the annual count for precipitation equal or greater than 20 mm (very heavy precipitation days). Additionally, temperature indices showed a large rise in the minimum and maximum values of daily minimum temperatures, annual minimum and maximum values of daily maximum temperatures, and the percentage of days with daily maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile (warm days). In view of these evolving trends in weather and climate patterns, the study recommends local farmers and other stakeholders involved in socioeconomic activities in the district to implement the necessary climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.
本研究利用卢旺达气象局(Meteo Rwanda) 1983 - 2016年的日降雨量、最低气温和最高气温数据,分析了卢旺达穆桑泽地区的气候变化指数。降雨和温度极端指数采用气候变化监测指数专家组(ETCCDMI)提供的方法确定。气候数据工具(CDT)是国际气候与社会研究所(IRI)开发的基于r语言的软件包。Sen's斜率估计和修正的Mann-Kendall (m-MK)检验都被用于识别趋势和确定变化程度。月气温指数(TXx、TXn、TNx、TNn)总体上呈现东部偏暖、西部偏冷的趋势;而温度指数的最小尾部则显示出轻微的降温,这是火山高山区夜晚温暖,白天炎热的标志。同期,东部地区降水强度和湿度较高,向中西部地区逐渐降低。此外,年总降水量在第95百分位以上的日数(甚湿日数)和大于20毫米的年降水日数(甚强降水日数)均有明显的上升趋势。日最低气温的最小值和最大值、年最高气温的最小值和最大值以及日最高气温超过90百分位(温暖日)的日数百分比均呈显著上升趋势。鉴于天气和气候模式的这些不断变化的趋势,该研究建议当地农民和参与该地区社会经济活动的其他利益攸关方实施必要的减缓和适应气候变化措施。
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引用次数: 1
Water Balance Evaluation for Flood Risk Reduction in the Yala River Basin, Western Kenya 肯尼亚西部雅拉河流域减少洪水风险的水平衡评价
Pub Date : 2022-06-02 DOI: 10.20987/jccs.02.06.2022
Mary Kiluva, Wanyonyi E.S, Wakhungu J.W
The Yala River Basin (YRB) in Western region of Kenya has in the past experienced climate and weather extreme events that include floods. Floods have triggered loss of lives, destruction of property, outbreak of water borne diseases and siltation of arable land. This study utilized the Nedbør-Afstrømnings-Model (NAM) hydrologic model (available in the NAM Module of the MIKE 11 hydrodynamic model) on the Yala River Basin (YRB) to generate flood flows for water balance evaluation. The study utilized satellite imagery data for the period 1984-2010 sourced from the Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development, rainfall (1980-2012) and river discharge (1947-2012) data sets from the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) and the Water Resources Management Authority (WARMA), respectively. Data quality control was statistically checked before sensitivity analysis, calibration, validation, and simulation of the flood flows. Daily water balance estimates for the Yala River Basin (YRB) over the period 1980-2010 were developed using the NAM hydrologic model. The results indicate that the mapped flood area extent varied by a value of 34.23 km2 over the period 1980-2010. The Yala River Basin (YRB) indicated an estimated inflow value of 4,814.72 MCM and outflow value of 4,578.23 MCM, with a coefficient of determination of 0.867. The difference between the inflow and outflow values was 236.49 MCM, that formed the flood flow or the water balance. This study concluded that the water balance value of 236.49 MCM was responsible for the floods recorded in the Yala River Basin (YRB) for the period 1980-2010, and it should be taken care of through flood risk reduction initiatives.
肯尼亚西部地区的亚拉河流域(YRB)过去曾经历过包括洪水在内的气候和天气极端事件。洪水造成了生命损失、财产破坏、水传播疾病的爆发和可耕地的淤积。本研究利用Nedbør-Afstrømnings-Model (NAM)水文模型(可在MIKE 11水动力模型的NAM模块中使用)对雅拉河流域(YRB)进行洪水生成,用于水平衡评价。该研究利用了1984-2010年期间的卫星图像数据,这些数据分别来自肯尼亚气象部门(KMD)和水资源管理局(WARMA)的降水(1980-2012)和河流流量(1947-2012)数据集。在敏感性分析、校准、验证和洪水流量模拟之前,对数据质量控制进行统计检查。利用NAM水文模型对雅拉河流域1980-2010年的日水量平衡进行了估算。结果表明:1980—2010年,洪涝区面积变化34.23 km2。雅拉河流域预计入水量为4814.72 MCM,出水量为4578.23 MCM,决定系数为0.867。流入与流出值之差为236.49 MCM,形成洪水流量或水量平衡。研究认为,雅拉河流域1980—2010年汛期洪水发生的主要原因是236.49 MCM的水平衡值,应通过防洪减灾措施加以控制。
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引用次数: 0
Micro-Climate modification around the Warri Refining and Petrochemical Company, Nigeria 尼日利亚Warri炼油和石化公司周围的微气候变化
Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.20987/jccs.01.06.2022
Balogun Verere, Odjungo P.A
Emissions from refineries impact on the micro-climate of the area in which they are situated. The study examined the micro-climate parameters (atmospheric temperature, relative humidity and wind speed) and pollutant concentration (Particulate Matter- PM2.5 μm, and PM10 μm, Carbon monoXide - CO, Volatile Organic Compounds - VOCs, Hydrogen sulphide - H2S, Sulphur dioXide -SO2 and Nitrogen dioXide - NO2) around Warri Refining and Petrochemical Company (WRPC), Nigeria and its environs. The study revealed that pollutant concentration and urbanization process associated with the activities at WRPC influence the micro climate around same. Land Surface Temperature Analysis also revealed the occurrence of a „heat island‟ covering the refinery, including adjoining built-up areas. The study recommends extensive tree planting and use of alternative green energy sources to reduce emissions from refinery activities and fossil fuel use.
炼油厂的排放对其所在地区的微气候产生影响。该研究检测了尼日利亚Warri炼油和石化公司(WRPC)及其周边地区的微气候参数(大气温度、相对湿度和风速)和污染物浓度(颗粒物- PM2.5 μm和PM10 μm、一氧化碳- CO、挥发性有机化合物- VOCs、硫化氢- H2S、二氧化硫- so2和二氧化氮- NO2)。研究表明,与WRPC活动相关的污染物浓度和城市化进程影响了周围的小气候。陆地表面温度分析还揭示了覆盖炼油厂的“热岛”现象,包括邻近的建成区。该研究建议广泛植树和使用替代绿色能源,以减少炼油厂活动和化石燃料使用的排放。
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引用次数: 0
Enhancing Access and Use of Climate Information through ICTs 通过信息通信技术加强气候信息的获取和利用
Pub Date : 2019-03-29 DOI: 10.20987/JCCS.1.03.2019
M. Yohannis, A. Wausi, M. Hutchinson, T. Waema
Although the role of ICTs in improving human life in Kenya is acknowledged widely, the focus of much of ICT-related developments has been on human experiences at the level of disease and needs for communication and mobility. Less obvious is how such technological interventions may be used to address seemingly abstract yet grave concerns like climate change and its impact on the quality of human life. This review paper, therefore, shall investigate the different situations where ICTs may be deployed in relaying packaged and relevant localized climate information that can help rural farmers in Kitui County, Kenya to make pertinent and timely decisions to improve their productivity and, ultimately, their livelihoods. We hypothesize that rural communities' use ICT tools such as the mobile phones and the community radios to access localized climate information (weather, seasonal forecasts, and agro-advisories) and that livelihood assets and livelihood strategies positively change with the increasing availability and use of the ICT-based climate information. The idea of the paper presented is to merge theoretical and applied research outcomes to narrow the gap between the theory of ICTs usage and the practice of it, while linking it to climate information and enhanced rural livelihood strategies. The review of this paper shall be captured in social-scientific terms, and shall contribute to knowledge by helping researchers and policymakers to determine climate information needs of rural ASAL communities, knowledge on innovations related to ICTs, among others.
虽然信通技术在改善肯尼亚人的生活方面的作用已得到广泛承认,但与信通技术有关的许多发展的重点一直放在疾病层面的人类经验以及通信和流动需求上。不太明显的是,这些技术干预如何被用于解决气候变化及其对人类生活质量的影响等看似抽象但严重的问题。因此,本文将调查在不同情况下,信息通信技术可用于传递打包和相关的本地化气候信息,这些信息可帮助肯尼亚基图伊县的农民做出相关和及时的决策,以提高他们的生产力,并最终改善他们的生计。我们假设农村社区使用信息通信技术工具(如移动电话和社区无线电)获取本地气候信息(天气、季节预报和农业咨询),并且生计资产和生计战略随着基于信息通信技术的气候信息的可用性和使用的增加而积极变化。本文提出的想法是将理论和应用研究成果结合起来,缩小信息通信技术使用理论与实践之间的差距,同时将其与气候信息和改善农村生计战略联系起来。本文的综述应以社会科学的术语来描述,并应通过帮助研究人员和政策制定者确定农村ASAL社区的气候信息需求、与ict相关的创新知识等,为知识做出贡献。
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引用次数: 1
Comparative Analysis of The Role of Gender in Climate Change Adaptation Between Kajiado And Kiambu County, Kenya 性别在气候变化适应中的作用比较——以肯尼亚肯布县为例
Pub Date : 2019-03-15 DOI: 10.20987/JCCS.3.03.2019
A. Nunow, N. J. Muthama, Ininda Joseph Mwalichi, K. Josiah
Many studies on adaptation to a changing climate have been undertaken across the world Kenya included. However, comparative analysis of gender in relationship to climate adaptation is poorly documented. This study therefore investigated how gender impacts community based adaptation to climate change in Kajiado County, representing mainly pastoral/ASAL regions of Kenya characterized by dry conditions and falling between agro climatic zones IV-VII and Kiambu County, representing mainly farming/highland regions of Kenya characterized by wet conditions and falling under agro climatic zones of between I-III. The study applied systematic random sampling to identify 312 households for interviews. Purposive random sampling was applied where fourteen key informant interviews were done together with six Focus Group Discussions involving three groups of men only, women only and inclusive one to verify information from the individual interviews within the selected communities. The results are comparative analysis of how communities in two different agro-ecological zones (AEZs) adapted to climate change coupled with declining resource base while operating on unequal gender dynamics. The assumption of the study was change in climate in Kajiado and Kiambu County would lead to increased food insecurity and gender disparity. Respondents from both Counties experienced increased drought periods, reduced rainfall patterns thus negatively impacting their livelihood sources. However, there is more gender disparity in Kajiado than Kiambu and also climate change has execrated the situation thus undermining efforts toward food security.
包括肯尼亚在内,世界各地都进行了许多关于适应气候变化的研究。然而,性别与气候适应关系的比较分析文献很少。因此,本研究调查了性别如何影响以社区为基础的气候变化适应,在以干旱为特征的肯尼亚牧区/丘陵地区为代表的4 - 7农业气气区和以湿润为特征的肯尼亚农业/高原地区为代表的1 - 3农业气气区之间的基安布县。本研究采用系统随机抽样的方法,对312户家庭进行访谈。采用了有目的的随机抽样,其中进行了14次关键信息者访谈,并进行了6次焦点小组讨论,涉及三组(仅限男性、仅限女性和包括其中一组),以核实选定社区内个人访谈的信息。结果是对两个不同农业生态区(aez)的社区如何适应气候变化以及资源基础下降,同时在不平等的性别动态下运作的比较分析。本研究的假设是,气候变化将导致钱台县和钱台县的粮食不安全和性别差异加剧。这两个国家的受访者都经历了干旱期增加,降雨模式减少,从而对其生计来源产生了负面影响。然而,与基安布相比,北京的性别差距更大,气候变化也加剧了这种情况,从而破坏了粮食安全的努力。
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引用次数: 0
Gender Mainstreaming for the Adaptation to Weather and Climate Extremes in African Cities 性别主流化促进非洲城市适应极端天气和气候
Pub Date : 2019-02-27 DOI: 10.20987/JCCS.2.02.2019
A. A. Oluoko-Odingo
Although women constitute one-half of the human population and provide most labour in farming, they remain poor and most vulnerable to weather and climate extremes due to inequalities in ownership and decision-making on most important livelihood resources like land, assets and cash. Peri-urban farming offers an important adaptation strategy to weather and climate extremes and through gender mainstreaming, can become a vital tool for sustainable livelihoods and sustainable development. The paper points out that although well-planned cities offer better services to urban communities and their hinterlands, the African cities, particularly, those in Sub-Saharan Africa have been accompanied by myriads of developmental and environmental challenges, which continue to perpetuate inequalities, discrimination and under-development. For instance, the low-income communities live in risky areas without access to important services which increase their vulnerability to weather and climate induced hazards and disasters. The Paper discusses the links between gender mainstreaming, peri-urban farming, weather and climate extremes and sustainable development in Africa, where literature review is supported by fieldwork results for better policy formulations. This was an invited paper to the conference and is supported by a research gap on the need for gender mainstreaming in peri-urban farming to enhance equity and equality for sustainable development. The study was carried out in peri-urban areas of Nairobi (Machakos and Kajiado Counties) in Kenya. The results provide hope as these peri-urban areas seem to have some form of spontaneous gender mainstreaming that when positively supported would yield good results. The Article underscores the fact that a number of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) could be achieved by simply targeting the attainment of SDG 5 on gender equality and women empowerment, including SDG 13 on adaptation to climate change
尽管妇女占人口的一半,并在农业中提供了大部分劳动力,但由于在土地、资产和现金等最重要的生计资源的所有权和决策方面存在不平等,她们仍然贫穷,最容易受到极端天气和气候的影响。城郊农业为应对极端天气和气候提供了重要的适应战略,通过性别主流化,可以成为可持续生计和可持续发展的重要工具。该报告指出,尽管规划良好的城市为城市社区及其腹地提供了更好的服务,但非洲城市,特别是撒哈拉以南非洲的城市,一直伴随着无数的发展和环境挑战,这些挑战继续使不平等、歧视和不发达现象永久化。例如,低收入社区生活在危险地区,无法获得重要服务,这使他们更容易受到天气和气候引起的灾害和灾害的影响。本文讨论了性别主流化、城郊农业、极端天气和气候与非洲可持续发展之间的联系。在非洲,实地调查结果为文献综述提供了支持,有助于更好地制定政策。这是一篇受邀参加会议的论文,并得到了关于在城郊农业中将性别问题纳入主流以促进可持续发展的公平和平等必要性的研究缺口的支持。这项研究是在肯尼亚内罗毕的城郊地区(马查科斯县和钱钱县)进行的。这些结果带来了希望,因为这些城郊地区似乎有某种形式的自发的性别主流化,如果得到积极支持,就会产生良好的结果。文章强调,一些可持续发展目标(SDG)可以通过简单地以实现关于性别平等和妇女赋权的可持续发展目标5为目标来实现,包括关于适应气候变化的可持续发展目标13
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Journal of Climate Change and Sustainability
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