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Exploring Russia’s Postponed War Against Ukraine: A Corpus-Based Analysis of Strategic Studies Institutes’ Publications from 1991 to 2014 探讨俄罗斯对乌克兰的推迟战争:基于语料库的1991 - 2014年战略研究机构出版物分析
Pub Date : 2023-08-10 DOI: 10.51870/wujq2611
Illia Ilin, O. Nihmatova
The article conducts a corpus study of official reports and papers from the Strategic Studies Institutes of the United States, NATO, the European Union, Ukraine, and Russia up to and including 2014 to determine how Russia’s hybrid war against Ukraine was represented and how postponed it proved to be. The US, EU, and NATO were very cautious and slow in establishing relations with Ukraine, either because they considered its integration with Russia very likely or because they did not want to destroy lucrative economic relations with Russia given the unstable and inconsistent foreign policy. The US, EU, and NATO were well aware of Ukraine's vulnerabilities and had been documenting various forms of Russian pressure on Ukraine since the 1990s (the preparatory phase of hybrid war) as well as the high likelihood of Russian military aggression since that time. Therefore, based on the institutes’ predictions, the Russia’s war against Ukraine was unavoidable, yet has been postponed for at least 20 years.
本文对美国、北约、欧盟、乌克兰和俄罗斯战略研究所截至2014年的官方报告和论文进行了语料库研究,以确定俄罗斯对乌克兰的混合战争是如何被代表的,以及它是如何被推迟的。美国、欧盟和北约在与乌克兰建立关系时非常谨慎和缓慢,要么是因为他们认为乌克兰很可能与俄罗斯融合,要么是因为他们不想破坏与俄罗斯之间有利可图的经济关系,因为乌克兰的外交政策不稳定且前后不一。美国、欧盟和北约都很清楚乌克兰的脆弱性,并记录了自20世纪90年代(混合战争的准备阶段)以来俄罗斯对乌克兰施加的各种形式的压力,以及从那时起俄罗斯军事侵略的高可能性。因此,根据这些研究所的预测,俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争是不可避免的,但已经推迟了至少20年。
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引用次数: 0
Agents of Social Change: Cultural Work, Institutions, and the (De)securitisation of Minorities 社会变革的推动者:文化工作、制度和少数民族的(去)证券化
Pub Date : 2023-05-29 DOI: 10.51870/kzoz4150
Alina Jašina-Schäfer
This paper combines anthropological and other critical security studies with research on cultural work to better understand the impact cultural institutions may have on the (de)securitisation of minority groups. Today minority issues represent a recurrent theme in various national and European contexts. Often perceived as a threat to social cohesion and linked to multiple successive crises, minorities and migrants have been the focus of security measures at different times. This paper focuses on the EU-funded project ‘Agents of Change: Mediating Minorities’ and explores how cultural work aimed at diversity and inclusion interacts with the dynamics of securitisation. Zooming in and out between the project goals and definitions, mundane local practices, institutional work and the broader (trans)national contexts, this paper discusses its intervening effects while also acknowledging numerous contradictions that make any straightforward narrative of minority desecuritisation difficult. With the help of empirical examples, this paper demonstrates a way to widen research beyond typical securitising and securitised actors and it contributes to a more nuanced understanding of the contexts of securitisation. Although the countermoves initiated by cultural work are never guaranteed to succeed, studying them opens new pathways to reflect upon the ambiguity of (de)securitisation as an open-ended process involving different actors, power relations and operating at multiple interdependent scales. These countermoves also indicate the shifts taking place in the current ways of thinking about and approaching minorities, challenging dominant constructions driving securitisation.
本文将人类学和其他重要的安全研究与文化工作研究相结合,以更好地理解文化机构可能对少数群体(去)证券化产生的影响。今天,少数民族问题在各国和欧洲都是一个反复出现的主题。少数群体和移民往往被视为对社会凝聚力的威胁,并与连续多次危机有关,在不同时期一直是安全措施的重点。本文着重于欧盟资助的项目“变革的推动者:调解少数民族”,并探讨了旨在多样性和包容性的文化工作如何与证券化的动态相互作用。在项目目标和定义、世俗的地方实践、机构工作和更广泛的(跨)国家背景之间放大和缩小,本文讨论了它的干预效应,同时也承认了许多矛盾,这些矛盾使得对少数民族非货币化的直接叙述变得困难。在实证例子的帮助下,本文展示了一种扩大研究范围的方法,超出了典型的证券化和被证券化的参与者,它有助于更细致入微地理解证券化的背景。虽然由文化工作发起的对抗行动永远不能保证成功,但研究它们为反思(去)证券化的模糊性开辟了新的途径,这是一个涉及不同行动者、权力关系和在多个相互依存的尺度上运作的开放式过程。这些对策还表明,当前思考和接近少数群体的方式正在发生变化,对推动证券化的主导结构构成挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Conflictual Rebordering: The Russia Policies of Finland and Estonia 冲突的重新边界:芬兰和爱沙尼亚的对俄政策
Pub Date : 2023-04-24 DOI: 10.51870/ojfq7520
A. Makarychev, T. Romashko
This article seeks to analyse the process of conflictual rebordering in the EU’s relations with Russia. The authors single out three major crises that triggered and shaped the process of toughening the border regime and the related transformations of political meaning of the EU-Russia border: the COVID-19 pandemic, the drastic deterioration of Moscow-Brussels relations in the beginning of 2021 and the war in Ukraine that started on 24 February 2022. Correspondingly, the EU’s reactions to each of these critical junctures might be described through the academic concepts of governmentality, normativity and geopolitics. Our aim is to look at the three ensuing models – governmental, normative and geopolitical rebordering – from the vantage point of Estonia and Finland, two EU member states sharing borders with Russia, yet in the meantime remaining distinct from each other in developing particular border policies and approaches vis-a-vis their eastern neighbour.
本文试图分析欧盟与俄罗斯关系中冲突性重新边界的过程。两位作者列举了引发和影响加强边境制度进程以及欧盟与俄罗斯边境政治意义相关转变的三大危机:2019冠状病毒病大流行、2021年初莫斯科与布鲁塞尔关系的急剧恶化以及2022年2月24日开始的乌克兰战争。相应地,欧盟对这些关键时刻的反应可以通过治理、规范和地缘政治等学术概念来描述。我们的目标是从爱沙尼亚和芬兰这两个与俄罗斯共享边界的欧盟成员国的有利位置来研究随后的三种模式-政府,规范和地缘政治重新边界,但同时在制定特定的边界政策和与东部邻国的方法方面彼此不同。
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引用次数: 0
Ukraine at War: Resilience and Normative Agency 战争中的乌克兰:恢复力和规范性机构
Pub Date : 2023-04-14 DOI: 10.51870/uxxz5757
Yulia Kurnyshova
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has transformed all aspects of life in the country, including societal attitudes, national politics and Ukraine’s agency on the international arena. The article seeks to discuss and conceptualise how practices of resilience create discursive spaces for producing and shaping Ukraine’s agency. In other words, how do experiences of resilience in four different spheres (societal, institutional, communicative and subregional) affect Ukraine’s capacity not only to cope with the intervention and survive as a nation, but also to contribute to the future of international security order. The author argues that by containing the Russian army, Ukraine can be viewed as a co-producer of European security, which is particularly acknowledged by European countries bordering on Russia. Ukraine’s agency, as unfolded in 2022, addresses Western countries with an insistent demand to perceive Ukraine as a part of the European normative order.
俄罗斯在2022年2月对乌克兰的全面入侵改变了该国生活的方方面面,包括社会态度、国家政治和乌克兰在国际舞台上的地位。本文旨在讨论和概念化弹性实践如何为生产和塑造乌克兰的机构创造话语空间。换句话说,四个不同领域(社会、机构、交流和次区域)的复原力经验如何影响乌克兰的能力,不仅是应对干预和作为一个国家生存的能力,而且是对未来国际安全秩序的贡献。作者认为,通过遏制俄罗斯军队,乌克兰可以被视为欧洲安全的共同生产者,这一点尤其得到与俄罗斯接壤的欧洲国家的承认。乌克兰的代理机构在2022年展开,它向西方国家提出了一个坚持要求,即将乌克兰视为欧洲规范秩序的一部分。
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引用次数: 0
Polarity in the Context of U.S.-China Competition: Reassessing Analytical Criteria 中美竞争背景下的两极:重新评估分析标准
Pub Date : 2023-03-28 DOI: 10.51870/xvbp8977
Lauro Borges, Regina Lucena
How can polarity be used as a pertinent conceptual asset to inform the description of the distribution of military capabilities amongst the most powerful states in the international system today, especially in consideration of U.S.-China competition? Using the military power approach to polarity, this article analyses the literature that emerged in the 2010s to critically examine this concept. In order to enhance the analytical value of polarity and propose verifiable indicators of it, this study draws on Thompson’s lead-sector model as well as Posen’s and Lee and Thompson’s research on the military foundations of polarity. When doing so, we distinguish latent enabling capabilities (as a secondary dimension of polarity) and the actual military power that primarily characterises polarity as a label. When following this operationalisation of polarity, we show that the international system is still unipolar because the U.S. has unmatched global power projection capabilities and first-rate economic and technological might to sustain its military forces. In other words, the current distribution of military capabilities in the system reflects that the contemporary international system is still U.S.-led and unipolar and that China’s rise is still too confined by regional dynamics to constitute a preface of a military-hegemonic rivalry at a global level.
如何将极性作为一种相关的概念资产来描述当今国际体系中最强大的国家之间的军事能力分布,特别是考虑到美中竞争?本文使用军事力量的方法来分析极性,分析了2010年代出现的文献,以批判性地审视这一概念。为了提高极性的分析价值,提出可验证的极性指标,本研究借鉴了Thompson的lead-sector模型,以及Posen、Lee和Thompson对极性的军事基础的研究。在这样做时,我们区分潜在的支持能力(作为极性的次要维度)和实际的军事力量,后者主要将极性作为一种标签。在遵循这种两极化的运作时,我们表明,国际体系仍然是单极的,因为美国拥有无与伦比的全球力量投送能力和一流的经济和技术实力来维持其军事力量。换句话说,当前体系中军事能力的分布反映了当代国际体系仍然是美国主导的单极体系,中国的崛起仍然受到地区动态的限制,不足以构成全球层面军事霸权竞争的序幕。
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引用次数: 1
Two Dimensions of Existence of the ‘Slum’ in the Global City: A Comparative Case Study of Informal Settlements in Nairobi and Mumbai 全球城市中“贫民窟”存在的两个维度:内罗毕和孟买非正式住区的比较案例研究
Pub Date : 2023-02-28 DOI: 10.51870/udgj8760
Matej Pav
The cities of the Global South have been predominantly approached as dual cities being embedded within the formal/informal dichotomy. This article provides an analysis of the power dynamics of formal and informal, using an example of public space in two informal settlements: Kibera in Nairobi, Kenya, and Dharavi in Mumbai, India. Based on my middle-term ethnographic research conducted in both settlements, I argue that the former binarism of coloniser and colonised has been transformed into the post-independence binarism of formal and informal. I interpret my ethnographic data by using Frantz Fanon’s theory about space and psychology of colonialism. I associate the formal sphere with Fanonian whiteness and the informal sphere with Fanonian blackness. From this perspective, I interpret the development of informal settlements as forcible formalisation. In such a process, by being pushed by the demands of the formality, local patterns of the informality are largely omitted and the elite-designed solutions frequently fail or –  even worse – lead to the deterioration of the inhabitants’ situation.
全球南方的城市主要被视为嵌入正式/非正式二分法的双重城市。本文以两个非正式住区(肯尼亚内罗毕的基贝拉和印度孟买的达拉维)的公共空间为例,分析了正式和非正式住区的权力动态。根据我在两个定居点进行的中期民族志研究,我认为以前的殖民者和被殖民者的二元对立已经转变为独立后的正式和非正式的二元对立。我用弗朗茨·法农关于殖民主义的空间和心理理论来解释我的民族志数据。我把正式领域和法诺式的白联系在一起,把非正式领域和法诺式的黑联系在一起。从这个角度来看,我将非正式住区的发展解释为强制的正规化。在这一过程中,在正式需求的推动下,非正式的地方模式在很大程度上被忽略,精英设计的解决方案往往失败,甚至导致居民状况的恶化。
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引用次数: 0
Energy Security in Security Studies: A Systematic Review of Twenty Years of Literature 安全研究中的能源安全:二十年文献的系统回顾
Pub Date : 2022-12-16 DOI: 10.51870/pddc2102
Aliaksandr Novikau
Energy security has clear relationships with national security – historically, semantically, and practically. This exploratory study offers a quantitative and qualitative content analysis of 43 academic articles focused on energy issues, published in five international security studies journals – International Security, Security Dialogue, Security Studies, Contemporary Security Policy and Survival – from 2001 to 2020. The study identifies the main energy themes covered in the articles and the authors’ demographics. The paper concludes that the coverage of energy issues has been quite sporadic and largely underexplored in security studies. The essence of the debates over energy issues has not changed much since the energy crises of the 1970s – it remains predominately state- and Western-centric with a primary focus on oil and nuclear power. The crude oil price surge because of supply disruptions from the Middle East is still viewed as a main threat to energy security. Similarly, international armed conflicts, domestic instability and nuclear proliferation are prioritised among the most critical outcomes of energy insecurity. The primary public policy responses to threats to energy security still focus on foreign policy, diversification of suppliers and energy sources, domestic energy efficiency and strategic energy stockpiles.
能源安全与国家安全有着明确的历史、语义和实践关系。本探索性研究对2001年至2020年期间发表在《国际安全》、《安全对话》、《安全研究》、《当代安全政策与生存》等五种国际安全研究期刊上的43篇有关能源问题的学术文章进行了定量和定性分析。该研究确定了文章中涉及的主要能源主题和作者的人口统计数据。本文的结论是,能源问题在安全研究中的覆盖范围相当分散,而且在很大程度上没有得到充分的探索。自20世纪70年代的能源危机以来,关于能源问题的辩论的本质并没有发生太大变化——它仍然主要以国家和西方为中心,主要关注石油和核能。由于中东供应中断导致的原油价格飙升仍被视为对能源安全的主要威胁。同样,国际武装冲突、国内不稳定和核扩散是能源不安全最严重的后果之一。对能源安全威胁的主要公共政策反应仍然侧重于外交政策、供应商和能源来源的多样化、国内能源效率和战略能源储备。
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引用次数: 2
Iran’s Nuclear Policy: A Cognitive Study on Defiance and Compliance 伊朗核政策:反抗与顺从的认知研究
Pub Date : 2022-12-05 DOI: 10.51870/iqbc3720
Mohammad Soltaninejad
This paper argues that the divides in Iran’s nuclear behavior between the three periods of 2005-2012, 2012-2016 and 2016-2021 are reflections of the varying modes of Iran’s cognizing the value of the nuclear program versus its costs. The predominant belief in the first period that Iran is in the gain domain made it defiant and risk-averse leading to Iran’s avoidance of entering a pact with the untrusted US. The change of belief that Iran is moved to the domain of losses as a result of sanctions drove Tehran more risk-taker and compliant in the second period and a part of the third period, resulting in conclusion of the nuclear deal and the efforts to maintain it. While suffering in the domain of losses, the belief that another deal with the US is a predetermined failure explains the rest of the third period’s Iranian fluctuation between compliance and defiance.
本文认为,2005-2012年、2012-2016年和2016-2021年三个时期伊朗核行为的差异反映了伊朗对核计划价值与成本的不同认知模式。在第一个时期,人们普遍认为伊朗处于有利地位,这使伊朗变得目中无人,不愿承担风险,导致伊朗避免与不受信任的美国达成协议。在第二阶段和第三阶段的部分时间里,人们认为伊朗因制裁而进入了损失领域,这使得德黑兰更加冒险和顺从,从而达成了核协议并努力维持协议。尽管遭受损失,但认为与美国达成的另一项协议注定失败的信念,解释了第三期伊朗在遵守与反抗之间波动的其余部分。
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引用次数: 0
Recuperar la Patria: Xenophobic Sentiments in Costa Rica in the Context of the Nicaraguan Refugee Crisis 2018 《祖国的恢复:尼加拉瓜难民危机背景下哥斯达黎加的仇外情绪》
Pub Date : 2022-11-04 DOI: 10.51870/htvp6675
L. Blecha
This case study explores xenophobic sentiments and actions in Costa Rica during the refugee crisis from April to December 2018, caused by the internal political crisis in Nicaragua. By looking at Costa Rica’s long histories of migration it is evident that xenophobic sentiments against Nicaraguans derive from long-lasting interconnections and migration movements between these two countries. This study demonstrates not only that much of nationalist and xenophobic discourses originate from prolonged historical arguments, but also that the global dimension of anti-migration sentiments has to be considered. Using neo-institutionalist theory, in particular historical and sociological institutionalism, this paper explores how the history of migration in Costa Rica has contributed to the creation of Costa Rican nationalism. Furthermore, by combining past and present examples, namely the history of migrations between Nicaragua and Costa Rica and actions by nationalist groups on social media channels, this paper contributes to a historically centred analysis to one of the central issues of the 21st century.
本案例研究探讨了尼加拉瓜国内政治危机导致的2018年4月至12月难民危机期间哥斯达黎加的仇外情绪和行动。从哥斯达黎加长期的移徙历史来看,对尼加拉瓜人的仇外情绪显然源于这两个国家之间的长期相互联系和移徙运动。这项研究不仅表明,许多民族主义和仇外言论源于长期的历史争论,而且还表明,必须考虑反移民情绪的全球层面。利用新制度主义理论,特别是历史和社会学制度主义,本文探讨了哥斯达黎加的移民历史如何促成哥斯达黎加民族主义的形成。此外,通过结合过去和现在的例子,即尼加拉瓜和哥斯达黎加之间的移民历史以及民族主义团体在社交媒体渠道上的行动,本文有助于以历史为中心分析21世纪的核心问题之一。
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引用次数: 0
Double Marginalisation of the Communist Party: Ukraine’s Decommunisation and the Russian-Backed Rebellion in Donbas 共产党的双重边缘化:乌克兰的非军事化和俄罗斯支持的顿巴斯叛乱
Pub Date : 2020-10-20 DOI: 10.51870/ntqf5668
Martin Laryš
The article explains why the Communist Party of Ukraine (KPU) became marginalised during the insurgency in Donbas despite its ideological closeness to the rebel cause. The KPU was a popular pro-rebel party during the rebellion, but sharing the rebels’ ideological background doesn't automatically mean the party will profit from the insurgency to expand or retain a share of power in rebel enclaves during the rebel state-building efforts. The KPU officials welcomed the protests against the new government in Kyiv and the onset of the anti-Ukrainian insurgency under the Russian patronage in the Donbas. Still, even despite this open support, the party descended into marginalisation.
这篇文章解释了为什么乌克兰共产党(KPU)在顿巴斯叛乱期间被边缘化,尽管它在意识形态上与反叛事业密切相关。KPU在叛乱期间是一个受欢迎的亲叛军政党,但分享叛军的意识形态背景并不一定意味着该党将从叛乱中获利,在叛军建立国家的努力中扩大或保留叛军飞地的一部分权力。KPU官员欢迎针对基辅新政府的抗议活动,以及在俄罗斯支持下在顿巴斯爆发的反乌克兰叛乱活动。然而,尽管有这样的公开支持,该党还是陷入了边缘化。
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引用次数: 0
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