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Economic resilience under COVID-19 in the CEMAC zone: Are procyclical adjustments of capital requirements necessary? 新冠肺炎疫情下中非经济共同体的经济韧性:是否有必要对资本要求进行顺周期调整?
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.1453/jel.v9i3.2352
Belek Djekonbe Djimoudjiel Mogota Anatole Toinar Alim
This paper analyzes the effects of procyclical regulatory capital adjustments on the ability of CEMAC economies to recover from the COVID-19. To achieve the objective, it uses quarterly data from 2005 to 2020 and Generalized Least Squares estimators as a technique. The results obtained show that the severity of the COVID-19 significantly impacted the economies of the sub-region and their ability to be resilient. Further, the results are robust regardless of the economic resilience indicator considered. Pro-cyclical capital adjustments in the pandemic context have a positive impact on resilience, thereby reducing exposure to economic vulnerabilities. It is advisable to promote countercyclical adjustments of regulatory capital to improve economic resilience. This is regardless the fact that under COVID-19, economic contractions may induce banks to adopt more pro-cyclical behavior in order to reduce the vulnerability of economies.
本文分析了顺周期监管资本调整对CEMAC经济体从新冠肺炎疫情中复苏能力的影响。为了实现这一目标,它使用了2005年至2020年的季度数据和广义最小二乘估计方法。所获得的结果表明,COVID-19的严重程度严重影响了该次区域的经济及其抵御能力。此外,无论考虑何种经济弹性指标,结果都是稳健的。大流行背景下的顺周期资本调整对复原力产生了积极影响,从而减少了经济脆弱性的风险。促进监管资本逆周期调整,提高经济韧性是可取的。这并没有考虑到在新冠肺炎疫情下,经济收缩可能会促使银行采取更多的顺周期行为,以降低经济的脆弱性。
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