Pub Date : 2020-04-15DOI: 10.5089/9781513536811.086
Countries of the Middle East and Central Asia region have been hit by two large and reinforcing shocks, resulting in significantly weaker growth projections in 2020. In addition to the devastating toll on human health, the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in oil prices are causing economic turmoil in the region, with fragile and conflict affected states particularlyhard-hit given already large humanitarian and refugee challenges and weak health infrastructures. The immediate priority for policies is to save lives with needed health spending, regardless of fiscal space, while preserving engines of growth with targeted support to households and hard-hit sectors. In this context, the IMF has been providing emergency assistance to help countries in the region during these challenging times. Further ahead, economic recoveries should be supported with broad fiscal and monetary measures where policy space is available, and by seeking external assistance where space is limited.
{"title":"Regional Economic Outlook, April 2020, Middle East and Central Asia","authors":"","doi":"10.5089/9781513536811.086","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513536811.086","url":null,"abstract":"Countries of the Middle East and Central Asia region have\u0000been hit by two large and reinforcing shocks, resulting in significantly weaker growth projections in 2020. In addition to the devastating toll on human health, the COVID-19 pandemic and the plunge in oil prices are causing economic turmoil in the region, with fragile and conflict affected states particularlyhard-hit given already large humanitarian and refugee challenges and weak health infrastructures. The immediate priority for policies is to save lives with needed health spending, regardless of fiscal space, while preserving\u0000engines of growth with targeted support to households and hard-hit sectors. In this context, the IMF has been providing emergency assistance to help countries\u0000in the region during these challenging times. Further ahead, economic recoveries should be supported with broad fiscal and monetary measures where\u0000policy space is available, and by seeking external assistance where space is limited.","PeriodicalId":280739,"journal":{"name":"Regional Economic Outlook","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126606241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-04-15DOI: 10.5089/9781513536835.086
Sub-Saharan Africa is facing an unprecedented health and economic crisis that threatens to throw the region off its stride, reversing the encouraging development progress of recent years. Furthermore, by exacting a heavy human toll, upending livelihoods, and damaging business and government balance sheets, the crisis threatens to retard the region’s growth prospects in the years to come. Previous crises tended to impact affect countries in the region differentially, but no country will be spared this time.
{"title":"Regional Economic Outlook, April 2020, Sub-Saharan Africa","authors":"","doi":"10.5089/9781513536835.086","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513536835.086","url":null,"abstract":"Sub-Saharan Africa is facing an unprecedented health and economic crisis that threatens to throw the region off its stride, reversing the encouraging development progress of recent years. Furthermore, by exacting a heavy human toll, upending livelihoods, and damaging business and government balance sheets, the crisis threatens to retard the region’s growth prospects in the years to come. Previous crises tended to impact affect countries in the region differentially, but no country will be spared this time.","PeriodicalId":280739,"journal":{"name":"Regional Economic Outlook","volume":"7 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114042621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-11-06DOI: 10.5089/9781513514000.086
Growth in the near term remains subdued for oil exporters in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region, amid volatile oil prices, precarious global growth, elevated fiscal vulnerabilities, and heightened geopolitical tensions. In addition, declining productivity is dampening medium-term growth prospects. To reduce dependence on oil prices and pave the way for more sustainable growth, fiscal consolidation needs to resume, underpinned by improved medium-term fiscal frameworks. In parallel, structural reforms and further financial sector development would boost foreign direct investment (FDI) and domestic private investment and foster diversification, thus contributing to improved productivity and potential growth.
{"title":"Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019, Middle East and Central Asia","authors":"","doi":"10.5089/9781513514000.086","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513514000.086","url":null,"abstract":"Growth in the near term remains subdued for\u0000oil exporters in the Middle East, North Africa,\u0000Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region, amid\u0000volatile oil prices, precarious global growth, elevated\u0000fiscal vulnerabilities, and heightened geopolitical\u0000tensions. In addition, declining productivity is\u0000dampening medium-term growth prospects. To\u0000reduce dependence on oil prices and pave the way for\u0000more sustainable growth, fiscal consolidation needs\u0000to resume, underpinned by improved medium-term\u0000fiscal frameworks. In parallel, structural reforms\u0000and further financial sector development would\u0000boost foreign direct investment (FDI) and domestic\u0000private investment and foster diversification,\u0000thus contributing to improved productivity and\u0000potential growth.","PeriodicalId":280739,"journal":{"name":"Regional Economic Outlook","volume":"321 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114057461","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-10-28DOI: 10.5089/9781513513959.086
The global economy has slowed, with important consequences for growth prospects in Latin America and the Caribbean. The slowdown in economic activity has been broad-based among advanced economies and more pronounced in emerging markets and developing economies, partly reflecting trade and geopolitical tensions. Global growth is projected to decline to the lowest level since the global financial crises, before recovering in 2020. More importantly, growth is projected to decline in 2019–20 in the United States and China, which are LAC’s two main trading partners. The ongoing sluggishness of global growth and trade is affecting export growth in LAC, posing significant headwinds to the outlook. External demand for the region remains subdued, with trading partner growth (including China, Europe, other LAC countries, and the United States) projected to decline in 2019, before recovering modestly over the medium term. Moreover, commodity prices (notably energy and metals), key drivers of growth in LAC in the past, are projected to decline with a likely modest negative impact on regional growth going forward.
{"title":"Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019, Western Hemisphere Department","authors":"","doi":"10.5089/9781513513959.086","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513513959.086","url":null,"abstract":"The global economy has slowed, with important consequences for growth prospects in Latin America and the Caribbean. The slowdown in economic activity has been broad-based among advanced economies and more pronounced in emerging markets and developing economies, partly reflecting trade and geopolitical tensions. Global growth is projected to decline to the lowest level since the global financial crises, before recovering in 2020. More importantly, growth is projected to decline in 2019–20 in the United States and China, which are LAC’s two main trading partners. The ongoing sluggishness of global growth and trade is affecting export growth in LAC, posing significant headwinds to the outlook. External demand for the region remains subdued, with trading partner growth (including China, Europe, other LAC countries, and the United States) projected to decline in 2019, before recovering modestly over the medium term. Moreover, commodity prices (notably energy and metals), key drivers of growth in LAC in the past, are projected to decline with a likely modest negative impact on regional growth going forward.","PeriodicalId":280739,"journal":{"name":"Regional Economic Outlook","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127916111","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-10-23DOI: 10.5089/9781513513966.086
Growth in Asia is expected to moderate to 5.0 percent in 2019 and 5.1 percent in 2020 (0.4 and 0.3 percentage point lower than projected last April, respectively). A marked deceleration in merchandise trade and investment, driven by distortionary trade measures and an uncertain policy environment, is weighing on activity, particularly in the manufacturing sector.
{"title":"Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019, Asia Pacific","authors":"","doi":"10.5089/9781513513966.086","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513513966.086","url":null,"abstract":"Growth in Asia is expected to moderate to\u00005.0 percent in 2019 and 5.1 percent in 2020\u0000(0.4 and 0.3 percentage point lower than\u0000projected last April, respectively). A marked\u0000deceleration in merchandise trade and investment,\u0000driven by distortionary trade measures and an\u0000uncertain policy environment, is weighing on\u0000activity, particularly in the manufacturing sector.","PeriodicalId":280739,"journal":{"name":"Regional Economic Outlook","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124901597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-10-18DOI: 10.5089/9781513514055.086
Growth in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to pick up, though at a slower pace than previously expected. This revision reflects a more challenging external environment, continued output disruptions in oil-exporting countries, and a weaker-than-anticipated growth in South Africa. The challenge for the region is to boost growth to create jobs for the growing labor force, while protecting against debt vulnerabilities and risks from a difficult global environment.
{"title":"Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019, Sub-Saharan Africa","authors":"","doi":"10.5089/9781513514055.086","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513514055.086","url":null,"abstract":"Growth in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to pick up, though at a slower pace than previously expected. This revision reflects a more challenging external environment, continued output disruptions in oil-exporting countries, and a weaker-than-anticipated growth in South Africa. The challenge for the region is to boost growth to create jobs for the growing labor force, while protecting against debt vulnerabilities and risks from a difficult global environment.","PeriodicalId":280739,"journal":{"name":"Regional Economic Outlook","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114323420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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