La movilidad en Costa Rica es un tema complejo debido a la falta de ordenamiento territorial de la Gran Área Metropolitana (GAM). La crisis sanitaria global causada por la pandemia del COVID-19 cambió considerablemente los patrones de movilidad en el país a causa de restricciones vehiculares, y de actividades económicas, impuestas por el gobierno para contener los contagios del virus. Con el uso de las técnicas de textit{big data} y los datos de Waze, se analiza la congestión vial (como textit{proxy} de la movilidad de población) antes (2019) y durante la pandemia (marzo a diciembre de 2020). Además, se analiza la relación entre los flujos de movilidad de la población, junto con variables sociodemográficas, y los contagios de COVID-19. Los análisis realizados muestran que la movilidad de población cambió drásticamente con la pandemia, y que la movilidad y las variables sociodemográficas estudiadas están asociadas con la cantidad de contagios por COVID-19. Estos resultados sirven como una inspección del fenómeno ocurrido tan complejo, y también como un insumo para valorar la factibilidad de aplicar medidas sobre el tránsito en condiciones posteriores a la pandemia, con el fin de reducir los tiempos perdidos por la congestión, la contaminación y otras externalidades negativas que produce el fuerte embotellamiento en la GAM.
{"title":"Patrones de movilidad en tiempos de COVID-19","authors":"Steffan Gómez-Campos, Shu Wei Chou-Chen","doi":"10.15517/es.2023.55398","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15517/es.2023.55398","url":null,"abstract":"La movilidad en Costa Rica es un tema complejo debido a la falta de ordenamiento territorial de la Gran Área Metropolitana (GAM). La crisis sanitaria global causada por la pandemia del COVID-19 cambió considerablemente los patrones de movilidad en el país a causa de restricciones vehiculares, y de actividades económicas, impuestas por el gobierno para contener los contagios del virus. Con el uso de las técnicas de textit{big data} y los datos de Waze, se analiza la congestión vial (como textit{proxy} de la movilidad de población) antes (2019) y durante la pandemia (marzo a diciembre de 2020). Además, se analiza la relación entre los flujos de movilidad de la población, junto con variables sociodemográficas, y los contagios de COVID-19. Los análisis realizados muestran que la movilidad de población cambió drásticamente con la pandemia, y que la movilidad y las variables sociodemográficas estudiadas están asociadas con la cantidad de contagios por COVID-19. Estos resultados sirven como una inspección del fenómeno ocurrido tan complejo, y también como un insumo para valorar la factibilidad de aplicar medidas sobre el tránsito en condiciones posteriores a la pandemia, con el fin de reducir los tiempos perdidos por la congestión, la contaminación y otras externalidades negativas que produce el fuerte embotellamiento en la GAM.","PeriodicalId":314389,"journal":{"name":"Epi-SCIENCE","volume":"102 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116411547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this research, we study the impacts of the traceable mobility in a two-patch environment when the population in each patch exhibits strong Allee effects. Traveling individuals are traced across patches by budgeting the average time spent in each patch while keeping their place of residency. Particularly, we focus on the impact that the effective population (residents and visitors) produces on regional dynamics.Our results show that low mobility across regions produces simple dynamics, where orbits converge to single or double extinction, or to a coexistence steady state. We derive mobility conditions under which an endangered population may benefit of the presence of a visitant one and avoid extinction -- the rescue effect. Nonetheless, increments in the visiting population would also lead the resident population to extinction -- the induced extinction effect.
{"title":"Consequences of Traceable Mobility in Populations Exhibiting Strong Allee Effect","authors":"B. Espinoza, Yun Kang, Oyita Udiani","doi":"10.15517/es.2023.55393","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15517/es.2023.55393","url":null,"abstract":"In this research, we study the impacts of the traceable mobility in a two-patch environment when the population in each patch exhibits strong Allee effects. Traveling individuals are traced across patches by budgeting the average time spent in each patch while keeping their place of residency. Particularly, we focus on the impact that the effective population (residents and visitors) produces on regional dynamics.Our results show that low mobility across regions produces simple dynamics, where orbits converge to single or double extinction, or to a coexistence steady state. We derive mobility conditions under which an endangered population may benefit of the presence of a visitant one and avoid extinction -- the rescue effect. Nonetheless, increments in the visiting population would also lead the resident population to extinction -- the induced extinction effect.","PeriodicalId":314389,"journal":{"name":"Epi-SCIENCE","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116075910","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Se discute el abordaje sobre el sufrimiento psíquico que presentan los pacientes que se atienden en el Centro Diurno para la Salud Mental. El escrito se apoya en un proyecto que se denomina ``Dispositivo de Atención Comunitaria Especializada del Hospital Dr. Roberto Chacón Paut'', que fue presentado a la Gerencia Médica de la Caja Costarricense del Seguro Social (CCSS) en el año 2021. Este fue elaborado por dos médicos psiquiatras en conjunto con una serie de especialistas de la institución. En su gestión, participó personal de psiquiatría, enfermería, psicología, nutrición, trabajo social y terapia ocupacional. Para comprender el surgimiento de esta iniciativa en el contexto actual, es necesario realizar una discusión epistemológica, ontológica y ética respecto a las políticas en salud pública y las prácticas para la atención clínica, en Costa Rica y en otras partes del mundo, así como, un debate sobre distintos enfoques, tales como el biomédico intervencionista, la antipsiquiatría, la psiquiatría comunitaria y el psicoanálisis. En este caso, se defiende una visión integral acerca del sujeto, atendiendo a sus necesidades, a sus relaciones sociales, así como, de sus condiciones materiales y subjetivas de existencia, de manera que se opta por entender su padecimiento, desde el espacio más cercano a su vida cotidiana: la comunidad. Con esto se procura aportar a las discusiones sobre las condiciones que promueven bienestar y malestar psíquico, la historia de la institucionalidad psiquiátrica, el abordaje clínico y la atención comunitaria en salud mental. Este artículo forma parte de una investigación sobre la historia del hospital, que se realiza en conjunto con la Universidad de Costa Rica (UCR) y con la CCSS, y de manera específica, en el Instituto de Investigaciones Sociales (IIS) y el Hospital Dr. Roberto Chacón Paut, respectivamente. El mismo se basa en una metodología que integra revisión de literatura científica, análisis del discurso de hemeroteca, sistematización de documentos de archivo y entrevistas.
{"title":"Sufrimiento psíquico y salud pública.","authors":"M. Molina, A. Sánchez, J. L. Núñez","doi":"10.15517/es.2023.55395","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15517/es.2023.55395","url":null,"abstract":"Se discute el abordaje sobre el sufrimiento psíquico que presentan los pacientes que se atienden en el Centro Diurno para la Salud Mental. El escrito se apoya en un proyecto que se denomina ``Dispositivo de Atención Comunitaria Especializada del Hospital Dr. Roberto Chacón Paut'', que fue presentado a la Gerencia Médica de la Caja Costarricense del Seguro Social (CCSS) en el año 2021. Este fue elaborado por dos médicos psiquiatras en conjunto con una serie de especialistas de la institución. En su gestión, participó personal de psiquiatría, enfermería, psicología, nutrición, trabajo social y terapia ocupacional. Para comprender el surgimiento de esta iniciativa en el contexto actual, es necesario realizar una discusión epistemológica, ontológica y ética respecto a las políticas en salud pública y las prácticas para la atención clínica, en Costa Rica y en otras partes del mundo, así como, un debate sobre distintos enfoques, tales como el biomédico intervencionista, la antipsiquiatría, la psiquiatría comunitaria y el psicoanálisis. En este caso, se defiende una visión integral acerca del sujeto, atendiendo a sus necesidades, a sus relaciones sociales, así como, de sus condiciones materiales y subjetivas de existencia, de manera que se opta por entender su padecimiento, desde el espacio más cercano a su vida cotidiana: la comunidad. Con esto se procura aportar a las discusiones sobre las condiciones que promueven bienestar y malestar psíquico, la historia de la institucionalidad psiquiátrica, el abordaje clínico y la atención comunitaria en salud mental. Este artículo forma parte de una investigación sobre la historia del hospital, que se realiza en conjunto con la Universidad de Costa Rica (UCR) y con la CCSS, y de manera específica, en el Instituto de Investigaciones Sociales (IIS) y el Hospital Dr. Roberto Chacón Paut, respectivamente. El mismo se basa en una metodología que integra revisión de literatura científica, análisis del discurso de hemeroteca, sistematización de documentos de archivo y entrevistas.","PeriodicalId":314389,"journal":{"name":"Epi-SCIENCE","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115673872","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dengue vaccination, long in development, has become controversial as it may cause antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) in dengue-seronegatives. Under partial vaccine failure, ADE increases case severity and may also affect Zika infections since the two viruses are closely related.From an individual perspective, the vaccination of others appears beneficial, but becoming vaccinated oneself may increase the risk of ADE and thus serious illness, for both diseases. From a population-level perspective, vaccination is expected to reduce the spread of dengue but increase Zika incidence. Nevertheless, prior mathematical modeling research has shown that in some cases, a small number of dengue vaccinations may reduce the final size of a Zika outbreak despite increasing its ability to spread. This study reconciles these results and then evaluates individual risks to both the vaccinated and the unvaccinated in order to connect to broader themes in complex vaccination decisions, such as free riders and the tragedy of the commons. A substantial new finding is that a dual outbreak may change which vaccination decision minimizes risk, compared to single-outbreak scenarios.
{"title":"Impact of dengue vaccination choice on Zika risk: free riders and the tragedy of the commons","authors":"C. Kribs","doi":"10.15517/es.2023.55392","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15517/es.2023.55392","url":null,"abstract":"Dengue vaccination, long in development, has become controversial as it may cause antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) in dengue-seronegatives. Under partial vaccine failure, ADE increases case severity and may also affect Zika infections since the two viruses are closely related.From an individual perspective, the vaccination of others appears beneficial, but becoming vaccinated oneself may increase the risk of ADE and thus serious illness, for both diseases. From a population-level perspective, vaccination is expected to reduce the spread of dengue but increase Zika incidence. Nevertheless, prior mathematical modeling research has shown that in some cases, a small number of dengue vaccinations may reduce the final size of a Zika outbreak despite increasing its ability to spread. This study reconciles these results and then evaluates individual risks to both the vaccinated and the unvaccinated in order to connect to broader themes in complex vaccination decisions, such as free riders and the tragedy of the commons. A substantial new finding is that a dual outbreak may change which vaccination decision minimizes risk, compared to single-outbreak scenarios.","PeriodicalId":314389,"journal":{"name":"Epi-SCIENCE","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129366734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The COVID-19 pandemic is only one devastating example of the pressing need to effectively apply science to solve real-world problems in today’s global environment. Mathematical modelling applied to population health research and management is one effective tool to bridge that gap, but we are not using it to its full potential. This article presents a reflection on some lessons from successfully applying mathematical models to guide decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic in Costa Rica. We assembled an inter- and cross-disciplinary team with three key characteristics: robust cutting-edge technical skills for mathematical modelling, an effective pathway to communicate with the decision-makers, and the capacity to translate what the decision-makers needed to know into parameters in the model, and vice versa. Lessons from this experience can guide on how to transform the use of mathematics to understand and improve population health and its determinants, to help us face the next humanitarian crises, now.
{"title":"Can we use the lessons of the pandemic to face the next humanitarian crises, now?","authors":"Gustavo Mery","doi":"10.15517/es.2023.55399","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15517/es.2023.55399","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic is only one devastating example of the pressing need to effectively apply science to solve real-world problems in today’s global environment. Mathematical modelling applied to population health research and management is one effective tool to bridge that gap, but we are not using it to its full potential. This article presents a reflection on some lessons from successfully applying mathematical models to guide decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic in Costa Rica. We assembled an inter- and cross-disciplinary team with three key characteristics: robust cutting-edge technical skills for mathematical modelling, an effective pathway to communicate with the decision-makers, and the capacity to translate what the decision-makers needed to know into parameters in the model, and vice versa. Lessons from this experience can guide on how to transform the use of mathematics to understand and improve population health and its determinants, to help us face the next humanitarian crises, now.","PeriodicalId":314389,"journal":{"name":"Epi-SCIENCE","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123609017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Urban areas with larger and more connected populations offer an auspicious environment for contagion processes such as the spread of pathogens. Empirical evidence has revealed a systematic increase in the rates of certain sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in urban areas with larger population sizes. With rampant urbanization worldwide, it is increasingly important to improve our understanding of the key drivers of these systemic infection patterns. Using confirmed-case data for three STDs in U.S. metropolitan areas, we investigate the scaling patterns of the incidence of these infectious diseases in urban areas. The most salient features of these patterns are that, on average, the incidence of infectious diseases that transmit with less ease i) scale more steeply with population size, ii) are more variable across cities of similar size, and iii) are less predictable across time. These features are explained using a simple mathematical model of contagion and also through the lens of a new theory of urban scaling. These theoretical frameworks help us reveal the links between the factors that determine the transmissibility of infectious diseases and the properties of their scaling patterns across cities.
{"title":"On the scaling patterns of infectious disease incidence in cities","authors":"O. Patterson-Lomba, A. Gómez-Liévano","doi":"10.15517/es.2023.55397","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15517/es.2023.55397","url":null,"abstract":"Urban areas with larger and more connected populations offer an auspicious environment for contagion processes such as the spread of pathogens. Empirical evidence has revealed a systematic increase in the rates of certain sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in urban areas with larger population sizes. With rampant urbanization worldwide, it is increasingly important to improve our understanding of the key drivers of these systemic infection patterns. Using confirmed-case data for three STDs in U.S. metropolitan areas, we investigate the scaling patterns of the incidence of these infectious diseases in urban areas. The most salient features of these patterns are that, on average, the incidence of infectious diseases that transmit with less ease i) scale more steeply with population size, ii) are more variable across cities of similar size, and iii) are less predictable across time. These features are explained using a simple mathematical model of contagion and also through the lens of a new theory of urban scaling. These theoretical frameworks help us reveal the links between the factors that determine the transmissibility of infectious diseases and the properties of their scaling patterns across cities.","PeriodicalId":314389,"journal":{"name":"Epi-SCIENCE","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121556921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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