"This paper considers the problem of social evaluation in a model where population size, individual lifetime utilities, lengths of life, and birth dates vary across states. In an intertemporal framework, we investigate principles for social evaluation that allow history to matter to some extent. Using an axiom called independence of the utilities of the dead, we provide a characterization of critical-level generalized utilitarian rules. As a by-product of our analysis, we show that social discounting is ruled out in an intertemporal welfarist environment. A simple population-planning example is also discussed."
{"title":"Intertemporal population ethics: critical-level utilitarian principles.","authors":"C. Blackorby, W. Bossert, D. Donaldson","doi":"10.2307/2171771","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/2171771","url":null,"abstract":"\"This paper considers the problem of social evaluation in a model where population size, individual lifetime utilities, lengths of life, and birth dates vary across states. In an intertemporal framework, we investigate principles for social evaluation that allow history to matter to some extent. Using an axiom called independence of the utilities of the dead, we provide a characterization of critical-level generalized utilitarian rules. As a by-product of our analysis, we show that social discounting is ruled out in an intertemporal welfarist environment. A simple population-planning example is also discussed.\"","PeriodicalId":320174,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society","volume":"63 6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1995-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129475428","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
"In this paper, we formulate a statistical model of dynamic intrafamily investment behavior incorporating endowment heterogeneity and heritability. We use the model's estimates to evaluate alternative estimation procedures that have exploited family and kinship data to obtain estimates of the determinants of human capital." The sequential decision-making framework developed is applied to data on birthweight and gestation of children born to mothers surveyed in the U.S. National Survey of Labor Market Experience youth cohort. "The empirical results imply that the least restrictive statistical formulation, consistent with dynamic behavior and heterogeneity among siblings, fits the data best. All of the estimation procedures that control for a family-specific endowment indicate, however, that the biological effect of having a birth at younger ages is to marginally increase birthweight and to increase fetal growth."
{"title":"Sisters, siblings, and mothers: the effect of teen-age childbearing on birth outcomes in a dynamic family context.","authors":"M. Rosenzweig, K. Wolpin","doi":"10.2307/2951628","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/2951628","url":null,"abstract":"\"In this paper, we formulate a statistical model of dynamic intrafamily investment behavior incorporating endowment heterogeneity and heritability. We use the model's estimates to evaluate alternative estimation procedures that have exploited family and kinship data to obtain estimates of the determinants of human capital.\" The sequential decision-making framework developed is applied to data on birthweight and gestation of children born to mothers surveyed in the U.S. National Survey of Labor Market Experience youth cohort. \"The empirical results imply that the least restrictive statistical formulation, consistent with dynamic behavior and heterogeneity among siblings, fits the data best. All of the estimation procedures that control for a family-specific endowment indicate, however, that the biological effect of having a birth at younger ages is to marginally increase birthweight and to increase fetal growth.\"","PeriodicalId":320174,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1995-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114830989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
"This paper estimates semiparametric reduced-form neoclassical models of life-cycle fertility in Sweden.... The estimated model integrates aspects of life cycle fertility that have previously been studied in isolation of each other: completed fertility, childlessness, interbirth intervals, and the time series of annual birth rates. The main objective of this paper is to determine which aspects of life cycle fertility, if any, are sensitive to male income and female wages."
{"title":"The relationship between wages and income and the timing and spacing of births: evidence from Swedish longitudinal data.","authors":"J. Heckman, J. R. Walker","doi":"10.2307/2938322","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/2938322","url":null,"abstract":"\"This paper estimates semiparametric reduced-form neoclassical models of life-cycle fertility in Sweden.... The estimated model integrates aspects of life cycle fertility that have previously been studied in isolation of each other: completed fertility, childlessness, interbirth intervals, and the time series of annual birth rates. The main objective of this paper is to determine which aspects of life cycle fertility, if any, are sensitive to male income and female wages.\"","PeriodicalId":320174,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1990-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128815475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
"This paper discusses two approaches that economists have taken in analyzing the timing of births. It formulates an empirical model appropriate for one of these approaches and demonstrates its usefulness using household survey data from Costa Rica. The hazard rate technique employed in this paper is a natural way of modeling a broad class of problems where the occurrence of an event is uncertain." The study also indicates that "historical data can be used to determine whether the strong trend in the relationship between regional mortality levels and the age at first birth is real or the result of inappropriate data. Additionally, data from other countries might be employed to determine whether the significant effect of male education levels on the risk of subsequent births is a general result. Finally..., the predictions of theoretical models dealing with the number and pace of births can be tested using data from younger women."
{"title":"A hazard rate approach to the timing of births.","authors":"J. Newman, C. McCulloch","doi":"10.2307/1911192","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/1911192","url":null,"abstract":"\"This paper discusses two approaches that economists have taken in analyzing the timing of births. It formulates an empirical model appropriate for one of these approaches and demonstrates its usefulness using household survey data from Costa Rica. The hazard rate technique employed in this paper is a natural way of modeling a broad class of problems where the occurrence of an event is uncertain.\" The study also indicates that \"historical data can be used to determine whether the strong trend in the relationship between regional mortality levels and the age at first birth is real or the result of inappropriate data. Additionally, data from other countries might be employed to determine whether the significant effect of male education levels on the risk of subsequent births is a general result. Finally..., the predictions of theoretical models dealing with the number and pace of births can be tested using data from younger women.\"","PeriodicalId":320174,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1984-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131949598","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Comments on a study by Conger and Campbell which postulated a 6 equation dynamic model including a fertility equation, estimated by 2 stage least squares on the basis of aggregate data for the U.S. The authors present a table with 3 sets of estimates for each of the 6 structural equations specified in the earlier study; 2 stage least squares estimates obtained for 1946-70 and 1946-76 and the estimates obtained by Conger and Campbell are indicated. The authors report that they were unable to obtain the results reported by the latter; their estimates were quite different and did not seem to support the conclusions offered in the earlier study. Estimates for the longer period were substantially different from those for the shorter. The authors believe that the Conger Campbell data also do not support the Conger-Campbell conclusions. Each point is discussed, with reference to the table. The equations are used to evaluate fertility, female participation, infant mortality, income, education, and medical expenditure.
{"title":"Simultaneous equations analysis of fertility in the U.S.: a comment.","authors":"B. Biswas, R. Ram","doi":"10.2307/1913399","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/1913399","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Comments on a study by Conger and Campbell which postulated a 6 equation dynamic model including a fertility equation, estimated by 2 stage least squares on the basis of aggregate data for the U.S. The authors present a table with 3 sets of estimates for each of the 6 structural equations specified in the earlier study; 2 stage least squares estimates obtained for 1946-70 and 1946-76 and the estimates obtained by Conger and Campbell are indicated. The authors report that they were unable to obtain the results reported by the latter; their estimates were quite different and did not seem to support the conclusions offered in the earlier study. Estimates for the longer period were substantially different from those for the shorter. The authors believe that the Conger Campbell data also do not support the Conger-Campbell conclusions. Each point is discussed, with reference to the table. The equations are used to evaluate fertility, female participation, infant mortality, income, education, and medical expenditure.\u0000","PeriodicalId":320174,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1982-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114512417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Estimation results are presented for the probability of working the hourly wage rate and the annual hours of work for wives in seven different age groups in both the U.S. and Canada. Federal and state or provincial taxes are incorporated into the analysis. An iterative estimation method is employed to circumvent the statistical problems resulting from the dependence of the hours of work on the tax rate and the dependence of the tax rate on the hours of work. (authors)
{"title":"A comparison of the labor force behavior of married women in the United States and Canada, with special attention to the impact of income taxes.","authors":"A. Nakamura, M. Nakamura","doi":"10.2307/1913321","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/1913321","url":null,"abstract":"Estimation results are presented for the probability of working the hourly wage rate and the annual hours of work for wives in seven different age groups in both the U.S. and Canada. Federal and state or provincial taxes are incorporated into the analysis. An iterative estimation method is employed to circumvent the statistical problems resulting from the dependence of the hours of work on the tax rate and the dependence of the tax rate on the hours of work. (authors)","PeriodicalId":320174,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1981-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114811954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Interstate labor force migration in Venezuela was estimated for 3 groups of migrants classified by their own educational levels. Regional educational levels and education-specific average wages were included as explanatory variables in order to distinguish between the various effects of education on migration and to estimate differences in the response of educated and uneducated migrants to other explanatory variables. The basic model resembled that used in other econometric studies of migration; migration was assumed to be a function of a number of origin and destination state characteristics which were believed likely to represent costs and benefits of living in various states for most persons. Migration rates rather than absolute numbers were the dependent variable. Zellner's regression technique was employed, and appropriate F statistics were used to test the null hypothesis of equal response of migrants to each of the explanatory variables across educational levels. A substantial proportion of the variance in migration rates was explained for each level of education. The results showed that educated members of the labor force in Venezuela are more mobile and also that there are significant differences in the responses of educated and uneducated migrants to variables which reflect the costs and benefits of alternative locations. The educated were less deterred by increased distance and more responsive to wage rates in alternative locations. The educated appear to be more mobile because of their greater access to information and greater incentives to make additional investments in search of better opportunities. Both educated and uneducated migrants are attracted to more populated regions but the elasticity is almost twice as high for the educated. Educational opportunity was found to be an important locational advantage for those who already had attended secondary school. The less educated are less likely to move to states with high educational levels, perhaps because they fear job competition from the educated. Destination unemployment variables were not highly significant for the uneducated. Results of the study indicate that disaggregation of migration by educational levels is necessary for a clear understanding of the complex relationships involved.
{"title":"Education and the decision to migrate: an econometric analysis of migration in Venezuela.","authors":"M. B. Levy, W. Wadycki","doi":"10.2307/1911985","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/1911985","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Interstate labor force migration in Venezuela was estimated for 3 groups of migrants classified by their own educational levels. Regional educational levels and education-specific average wages were included as explanatory variables in order to distinguish between the various effects of education on migration and to estimate differences in the response of educated and uneducated migrants to other explanatory variables. The basic model resembled that used in other econometric studies of migration; migration was assumed to be a function of a number of origin and destination state characteristics which were believed likely to represent costs and benefits of living in various states for most persons. Migration rates rather than absolute numbers were the dependent variable. Zellner's regression technique was employed, and appropriate F statistics were used to test the null hypothesis of equal response of migrants to each of the explanatory variables across educational levels. A substantial proportion of the variance in migration rates was explained for each level of education. The results showed that educated members of the labor force in Venezuela are more mobile and also that there are significant differences in the responses of educated and uneducated migrants to variables which reflect the costs and benefits of alternative locations. The educated were less deterred by increased distance and more responsive to wage rates in alternative locations. The educated appear to be more mobile because of their greater access to information and greater incentives to make additional investments in search of better opportunities. Both educated and uneducated migrants are attracted to more populated regions but the elasticity is almost twice as high for the educated. Educational opportunity was found to be an important locational advantage for those who already had attended secondary school. The less educated are less likely to move to states with high educational levels, perhaps because they fear job competition from the educated. Destination unemployment variables were not highly significant for the uneducated. Results of the study indicate that disaggregation of migration by educational levels is necessary for a clear understanding of the complex relationships involved.\u0000","PeriodicalId":320174,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1974-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126963267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The predictive content of the quantity-quality model of fertility and the empirical information required for verification under a minimal set of restrictions on the utility function is described. It is demonstrated that commodity-independent compensated price effects must be known to infer the existence of the unobservable interdependent shadow prices of the model with a relatively weak structure improsed on preference orderings. A method of using multiple birth events to substitute for these exogenous prices is proposed and applied to household data from India.
{"title":"Testing the quantity-quality fertility model: the use of twins as a natural experiment.","authors":"M. Rosenzweig, K. Wolpin","doi":"10.2307/1912026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/1912026","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The predictive content of the quantity-quality model of fertility and the empirical information required for verification under a minimal set of restrictions on the utility function is described. It is demonstrated that commodity-independent compensated price effects must be known to infer the existence of the unobservable interdependent shadow prices of the model with a relatively weak structure improsed on preference orderings. A method of using multiple birth events to substitute for these exogenous prices is proposed and applied to household data from India.\u0000","PeriodicalId":320174,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society","volume":"90 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125130341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A household time-allocative model which explicitly takes into account the economic contribution of children in agricultural areas of less-developed countries is applied to direct-level data pertaining to the rural population of India. Joint family decisions concerning fertility and the allocation of male and female child time to schooling and work activities are examined empirically in a simultaneous equations system. The properties of the formal model are used to derive inferences from the parameter estimates with respect to the shadow price configuration influencing these joint decisions.
{"title":"Fertility, schooling, and the economic contribution of children in rural India: an econometric analysis.","authors":"M. Rosenzweig, R. Evenson","doi":"10.2307/1914059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/1914059","url":null,"abstract":"A household time-allocative model which explicitly takes into account the economic contribution of children in agricultural areas of less-developed countries is applied to direct-level data pertaining to the rural population of India. Joint family decisions concerning fertility and the allocation of male and female child time to schooling and work activities are examined empirically in a simultaneous equations system. The properties of the formal model are used to derive inferences from the parameter estimates with respect to the shadow price configuration influencing these joint decisions.","PeriodicalId":320174,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127878108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
"This paper describes and analyzes movements of older men among labor force states [in the United States] using quarterly observations derived from the Retirement History Survey (RHS)." The results indicate "substantial undercounts in the biannual data, indicating that the prevalence of labor force movements at older ages has been underestimated previously.... The results show that labor force dynamics at older ages are important, including duration and spell occurrence dependence, and work experience effects. These effects are robust to nonparametric controls for unobserved heterogeneity. The estimates indicate that social security benefits have strong effects on the timing of labor force transitions at older ages, but that changes in social security benefit levels over time have not contributed much to the trend toward earlier labor force exit."
{"title":"Labor force dynamics of older men.","authors":"D. Blau","doi":"10.2307/2951478","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/2951478","url":null,"abstract":"\"This paper describes and analyzes movements of older men among labor force states [in the United States] using quarterly observations derived from the Retirement History Survey (RHS).\" The results indicate \"substantial undercounts in the biannual data, indicating that the prevalence of labor force movements at older ages has been underestimated previously.... The results show that labor force dynamics at older ages are important, including duration and spell occurrence dependence, and work experience effects. These effects are robust to nonparametric controls for unobserved heterogeneity. The estimates indicate that social security benefits have strong effects on the timing of labor force transitions at older ages, but that changes in social security benefit levels over time have not contributed much to the trend toward earlier labor force exit.\"","PeriodicalId":320174,"journal":{"name":"Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127706924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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