Wen Wang, Deng Yusong, Shao Ting, Wang Ruimin, Niu Sanyuan, Liu Xin
{"title":"China’s urbanisation in the new technological revolution","authors":"Wen Wang, Deng Yusong, Shao Ting, Wang Ruimin, Niu Sanyuan, Liu Xin","doi":"10.2307/j.ctv1zcm2t6.10","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1zcm2t6.10","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":326269,"journal":{"name":"China's Challenges in Moving towards a High-income Economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115681168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Since the beginning of the reform and opening-up period, China’s foreign trade has become one of the important drivers of economic growth. The proportion of exports in total gross domestic product (GDP) increased from less than 4 per cent in the initial period of opening up to its highest value, of 34.5 per cent, in 2007. China’s export growth has been largely related to the rapid development of processing trade. Before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), processing trade accounted for more than 50 per cent of China’s exports. Processing trade has made great contributions to employment, industrialisation and foreign trade in China.
{"title":"The transformation and upgrading of processing trade and its impact on firms’ productivity","authors":"Kun Li, Haoran Hu","doi":"10.2307/j.ctv1zcm2t6.14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1zcm2t6.14","url":null,"abstract":"Since the beginning of the reform and opening-up period, China’s foreign trade has become one of the important drivers of economic growth. The proportion of exports in total gross domestic product (GDP) increased from less than 4 per cent in the initial period of opening up to its highest value, of 34.5 per cent, in 2007. China’s export growth has been largely related to the rapid development of processing trade. Before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), processing trade accounted for more than 50 per cent of China’s exports. Processing trade has made great contributions to employment, industrialisation and foreign trade in China.","PeriodicalId":326269,"journal":{"name":"China's Challenges in Moving towards a High-income Economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133332221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Revenue and profit growth have slowed in China’s corporate sector in recent years, alongside a broader moderation in China’s economic momentum. The slowdown has been most severe for labour-intensive private companies, particularly export-oriented manufacturing firms. The government has responded by announcing a range of measures aimed at easing financial conditions faced by the private sector. Earlier efforts by the Chinese authorities to reduce risks in China’s financial system appear to have been successful in stabilising leverage in the state-owned sector, but the financial position of private sector firms is more fragile, and risks remain elevated in the real estate industry. Introduction Conditions in China’s corporate sector are important for Chinese economic growth and financial stability, and have significant implications for China’s major trading partners, including Australia. Chinese business investment has been an important source of economic growth, and driven demand for resource commodities. However, by the same token, the corporate sector has been the largest contributor to non-financial sector leverage, and corporate debt remains very high by international standards. Analysis of the activities and financial health of China’s companies is also helpful for forming assessments about the broader trajectory of the Chinese economy and the effectiveness of government policies affecting businesses. A range of previous studies has examined conditions in China’s corporate sector.[1] These analyses have documented the decline in corporate profitability and rise in leverage since 2008–09, which stemmed from the rapid increase in debtfunded investment that formed part of the Chinese Government’s stimulus response to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This article provides an update on recent developments by drawing upon official industrial survey data. However, the official survey data only cover a limited number of industries and are restricted to B U L L E T I N – D E C E M B E R 2 0 1 9 7 1 companies above a certain size.[2] Therefore, for more detailed sector-level analysis, this article uses alternative data derived from the financial statements of listed companies. As at the end of 2018, more than 3,300 non-financial companies were listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, with a combined value of CNY58 trillion in assets.[3] Listed companies represent a relatively small but growing share of China’s broader corporate sector: these firms accounted for around 10 per cent of non-financial enterprise assets in 2016 and around 10 per cent of non-financial corporate debt in 2018. Revenue and Profit Growth Has Weakened, Driven by the Private Sector A range of indicators suggests that growth in revenue and profits of Chinese firms has slowed noticeably in the past few years. The profitability of industrial firms captured in the official industrial survey had been trending lower following the 2008–09 stimulus. In large part, this downwa
近年来，中国企业的收入和利润增长有所放缓，同时中国经济增长势头普遍放缓。经济放缓对劳动密集型私营企业最为严重，尤其是出口导向型制造企业。作为回应，中国政府宣布了一系列措施，旨在缓解私营部门面临的财务状况。中国当局早些时候为降低中国金融体系风险所做的努力，似乎在稳定国有部门的杠杆方面取得了成功，但私营部门企业的财务状况更为脆弱，房地产行业的风险仍然很高。中国企业的状况对中国的经济增长和金融稳定至关重要，对包括澳大利亚在内的中国主要贸易伙伴也有重大影响。中国的商业投资一直是经济增长的重要来源，并推动了对资源性商品的需求。然而，出于同样的原因，企业部门一直是非金融部门杠杆的最大贡献者，以国际标准衡量，企业债务仍然很高。对中国企业的活动和财务健康状况的分析，也有助于形成对中国经济更广泛轨迹的评估，以及对企业产生影响的政府政策的有效性。之前的一系列研究考察了中国企业部门的状况这些分析记录了自2008-09年以来企业盈利能力的下降和杠杆率的上升，这源于债务融资投资的快速增长，这是中国政府应对全球金融危机(GFC)刺激措施的一部分。本文利用官方工业调查数据提供了最近发展的最新情况。然而，官方调查数据只涵盖有限的几个行业，并且仅限于B U L L E E I N - D E C E M B E R 2 0 1 7 1家规模以上的公司因此，为了进行更详细的行业层面分析，本文使用了来自上市公司财务报表的替代数据。截至2018年底，在沪深证券交易所上市的非金融类公司超过3300家，总资产规模达58万亿元上市公司在中国更广泛的企业部门中所占的份额相对较小，但在不断增长:2016年，这些公司占非金融企业资产的10%左右，2018年占非金融企业债务的10%左右。一系列指标表明，中国企业的收入和利润增长在过去几年中明显放缓。官方工业调查显示，在2008-09年的经济刺激之后，工业企业的盈利能力一直呈下降趋势。在很大程度上，这种下降趋势反映了这样一个事实，即在刺激期间出现的极大的投资提振之后，新的大型资本支出的回报下降了。在“供给侧结构性改革”的政策框架下，政府努力减少产能过剩、杠杆和经营成本，盈利能力在2016年和2017年出现反弹(见Boulter 2018)。然而，在过去两年中，收入和利润的增长再次放缓，净资产收益率大幅下降(图1)。上市公司也出现了类似的趋势(图2)。最近上市公司和非上市公司报告的营业收入和利润增长放缓表明，总体而言，供给侧政策只能暂时限制企业利润的下行压力。此外，中国监管机构降低金融体系风险的努力似乎加剧了经济放缓;这些努力导致了对监管较少的信贷来源的挤压，而私营企业更依赖于这些信贷来源。盈利能力的恶化也可能与全球制造业和贸易的普遍放缓有关，这种放缓削弱了出口导向型企业的现金流。上市公司报告的更细粒度的所有权和行业层面的数据，使我们能够更详细地分析企业部门盈利能力放缓的驱动因素。数据表明，自2017年以来的放缓是由私营企业推动的(图3)相比之下，国有企业的盈利能力一直呈上升趋势。国有企业的盈利能力很可能继续受到政府实施供给侧政策的支持，因为这些企业的高杠杆率和产能过剩特征使它们成为这些政策的主要目标。
{"title":"Conditions in China’s corporate sector","authors":"Joel P. Bowman","doi":"10.2307/j.ctv1zcm2t6.13","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1zcm2t6.13","url":null,"abstract":"Revenue and profit growth have slowed in China’s corporate sector in recent years, alongside a broader moderation in China’s economic momentum. The slowdown has been most severe for labour-intensive private companies, particularly export-oriented manufacturing firms. The government has responded by announcing a range of measures aimed at easing financial conditions faced by the private sector. Earlier efforts by the Chinese authorities to reduce risks in China’s financial system appear to have been successful in stabilising leverage in the state-owned sector, but the financial position of private sector firms is more fragile, and risks remain elevated in the real estate industry. Introduction Conditions in China’s corporate sector are important for Chinese economic growth and financial stability, and have significant implications for China’s major trading partners, including Australia. Chinese business investment has been an important source of economic growth, and driven demand for resource commodities. However, by the same token, the corporate sector has been the largest contributor to non-financial sector leverage, and corporate debt remains very high by international standards. Analysis of the activities and financial health of China’s companies is also helpful for forming assessments about the broader trajectory of the Chinese economy and the effectiveness of government policies affecting businesses. A range of previous studies has examined conditions in China’s corporate sector.[1] These analyses have documented the decline in corporate profitability and rise in leverage since 2008–09, which stemmed from the rapid increase in debtfunded investment that formed part of the Chinese Government’s stimulus response to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This article provides an update on recent developments by drawing upon official industrial survey data. However, the official survey data only cover a limited number of industries and are restricted to B U L L E T I N – D E C E M B E R 2 0 1 9 7 1 companies above a certain size.[2] Therefore, for more detailed sector-level analysis, this article uses alternative data derived from the financial statements of listed companies. As at the end of 2018, more than 3,300 non-financial companies were listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, with a combined value of CNY58 trillion in assets.[3] Listed companies represent a relatively small but growing share of China’s broader corporate sector: these firms accounted for around 10 per cent of non-financial enterprise assets in 2016 and around 10 per cent of non-financial corporate debt in 2018. Revenue and Profit Growth Has Weakened, Driven by the Private Sector A range of indicators suggests that growth in revenue and profits of Chinese firms has slowed noticeably in the past few years. The profitability of industrial firms captured in the official industrial survey had been trending lower following the 2008–09 stimulus. In large part, this downwa","PeriodicalId":326269,"journal":{"name":"China's Challenges in Moving towards a High-income Economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116210148","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
China’s per capita income reached US$10,000 in 2019—an important milestone in measuring the significant improvement in wellbeing for 1.4 billion Chinese people resulting from the decades-long program of reform and development. In the same year, China’s total gross domestic product (GDP) reached US$14.3 trillion, accounting for 16.4 per cent of global GDP according to World Bank estimates, which matches closely to China’s share of about 18 per cent of global population. Along with the rise in per capita income and total GDP, the Chinese economy witnessed some fundamental changes in the pattern of industrialisation, continuing to move towards high value-added production, trade and investment, progress on innovation and technological change and large-scale poverty reduction. These changes reflect some key features associated with a new and more advanced stage of growth and development. These structural changes are expected to continue to deepen and will allow China to accomplish its goal of becoming a high-income economy, which is one marked by a level of per capita income above US$12,270.1
{"title":"Challenges and roadmaps for moving towards a high-income economy","authors":"Ligang Song, Yixiao Zhou","doi":"10.2307/j.ctv1zcm2t6.7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1zcm2t6.7","url":null,"abstract":"China’s per capita income reached US$10,000 in 2019—an important milestone in measuring the significant improvement in wellbeing for 1.4 billion Chinese people resulting from the decades-long program of reform and development. In the same year, China’s total gross domestic product (GDP) reached US$14.3 trillion, accounting for 16.4 per cent of global GDP according to World Bank estimates, which matches closely to China’s share of about 18 per cent of global population. Along with the rise in per capita income and total GDP, the Chinese economy witnessed some fundamental changes in the pattern of industrialisation, continuing to move towards high value-added production, trade and investment, progress on innovation and technological change and large-scale poverty reduction. These changes reflect some key features associated with a new and more advanced stage of growth and development. These structural changes are expected to continue to deepen and will allow China to accomplish its goal of becoming a high-income economy, which is one marked by a level of per capita income above US$12,270.1","PeriodicalId":326269,"journal":{"name":"China's Challenges in Moving towards a High-income Economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127143261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The China Financial Stability Report (Financial Stability Analysis Group of the People’s Bank of China 2019) pointed out that the factors threatening global financial stability will likely persist into the future, especially as unilateralism and trade-protectionist sentiments have only intensified globally, while financial markets are highly sensitive to trade—all of which has led to growing uncertainty around the world. As such, global systemic risk prevention and control remain vital. Consequently, analysis of the demand for safe havens and the allocation of safehaven assets appears extremely urgent. Traditionally, the main safe-haven currencies are the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen and the US dollar. However, these currencies do not exhibit the characteristics of a safe-haven asset all the time. Meanwhile, the large and concentrated demand for such assets is likely to lead to excessively high currency portfolio holding costs.
{"title":"The renminbi’s status as a safe-haven currency","authors":"Liqing Zhang, Libo Yin, You Wu","doi":"10.2307/j.ctv1zcm2t6.15","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1zcm2t6.15","url":null,"abstract":"The China Financial Stability Report (Financial Stability Analysis Group of the People’s Bank of China 2019) pointed out that the factors threatening global financial stability will likely persist into the future, especially as unilateralism and trade-protectionist sentiments have only intensified globally, while financial markets are highly sensitive to trade—all of which has led to growing uncertainty around the world. As such, global systemic risk prevention and control remain vital. Consequently, analysis of the demand for safe havens and the allocation of safehaven assets appears extremely urgent. Traditionally, the main safe-haven currencies are the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen and the US dollar. However, these currencies do not exhibit the characteristics of a safe-haven asset all the time. Meanwhile, the large and concentrated demand for such assets is likely to lead to excessively high currency portfolio holding costs.","PeriodicalId":326269,"journal":{"name":"China's Challenges in Moving towards a High-income Economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131811266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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