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Improving forecasting accuracy using quantile regression neural network combined with unrestricted mixed data sampling 利用分位数回归神经网络结合无限制混合数据采样提高预测精度
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-11-13 DOI: 10.46481/jnsps.2023.1394
Umaru Hassan, Mohd Tahir Ismail
A traditional regression method involving time series variables is often observed at the same frequencies. In a situation where the frequencies differ, the higher ones are averaged or aggregated to the lower frequency. A Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) regression model was introduced to address such problems. In any country, stakeholders are interested in monitoring and forecasting accurately the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) using the dynamics of macroeconomic variables. We applied the hybrid QRNN-U-MIDAS model to forecast quarterly GDP using monthly and weekly data. The Quantile Regression Neural Network (QRNN) is designed to model nonlinear relationships amongst data sampled at the same frequency. Therefore, we take advantage of QRNN skills using the optimization techniques of gradient descent-based algorithms to optimise the estimated loss function Ea (tau), and introduce them into the U-MIDAS framework, which can handle mixed data frequencies, and construct a QRNN-U-MIDAS model. The suggested hybrid QRNN-U-MIDAS model was implemented in an R-package that we created to perform both simulation and real-time data applications. The findings indicate that the QRNN-U-MIDAS regression model outperforms competing models in terms of its capacity for prediction across the conditional distribution of a response variable with a comprehensive view of the information contained in the variables, which is lacking in other competing models like U-MIDAS, ANN-U-MIDAS etc. More so, this novel model will add to the existing works of literature on robust forecasting models.
涉及时间序列变量的传统回归方法通常在相同频率下观察到。在频率不同的情况下,较高的频率被平均或聚合到较低的频率。引入混合数据采样(MIDAS)回归模型来解决这些问题。在任何国家,利益相关者都对利用宏观经济变量的动态来准确监测和预测国内生产总值(GDP)感兴趣。我们应用混合QRNN-U-MIDAS模型使用月度和每周数据预测季度GDP。分位数回归神经网络(Quantile Regression Neural Network, QRNN)的目的是对相同频率采样数据之间的非线性关系进行建模。因此,我们利用基于梯度下降算法的优化技术来优化估计的损失函数Ea (tau),并将其引入可以处理混合数据频率的U-MIDAS框架中,构建QRNN-U-MIDAS模型。建议的混合QRNN-U-MIDAS模型在我们创建的r包中实现,用于执行仿真和实时数据应用。研究结果表明,QRNN-U-MIDAS回归模型在对响应变量的条件分布进行预测的能力方面优于其他竞争模型,并能全面了解变量中包含的信息,这是其他竞争模型如U-MIDAS、ANN-U-MIDAS等所缺乏的。更重要的是,这个新颖的模型将增加现有的关于稳健预测模型的文献。
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引用次数: 0
Synthesis and characterization of silica xerogel and aerogel from rice husk ash and pulverized beach sand via sol-gel route 以稻壳灰和沙粒为原料,溶胶-凝胶法制备二氧化硅干凝胶和气凝胶及其表征
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-11-13 DOI: 10.46481/jnsps.2023.1609
K. M. Omatolaa, A. D. Onojah, A. N. Amah, I. Ahemen
The high cost and toxicity associated with the use of orthosilicates as silica precursors drive growing interest in an environmentally friendly and cost - efficient natural silica source. Rice husk (a biomass) and beach sand are both natural and non - toxic and the extraction of silica from each using sodium hydroxide makes the process green for the production of nanosilica gels (xerogel and aerogel) via the sol – gel route. The gels from the ash of rice husk and pulverized beach sand were dried by the use of a laboratory oven and supercritical extraction methods. The structures of the gels were studied through X-ray diffraction (XRD), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), selected area electron diffraction (SAED), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), X - ray fluorescence (XRF) spectroscopy and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopic analyses. XRF spectroscopy revealed silicon in its oxide form as the prominent element with low levels of trace elements concentrations. XRD results showed the crystalline nature of the prepared silica. TEM images confirmed the crystalline and nanometric structures of the streak - free xerogel and aerogel. SAED confirmed that the gels were polycrystalline with no streaks. SEM monographs showed varied globes of fine surfaces indicating the high level of purity of the gels. FTIR showed the absorption peaks of the silanol-OH bond and Si-O-Si vibration, confirming the gels as nanometric structures. The high yield, crystalline nature, purity and crystallographic features of the produced silica suggest rice husk ash and pulverized beach sand as alternative silica sources for the production of silica gels nanoparticles with potential applications in biomedical field, nanofiltration and as additive for improving the strength of materials.
正硅酸盐作为二氧化硅前驱体的高成本和毒性促使人们对环保和经济高效的天然二氧化硅源越来越感兴趣。稻壳(一种生物质)和沙滩沙都是天然且无毒的,使用氢氧化钠从每一种材料中提取二氧化硅,使得通过溶胶-凝胶途径生产纳米二氧化硅凝胶(干凝胶和气凝胶)的过程变得绿色。采用实验室烘箱和超临界萃取法对稻壳灰分和沙粉中的凝胶进行干燥。通过X射线衍射(XRD)、透射电子显微镜(TEM)、选择区域电子衍射(SAED)、扫描电子显微镜(SEM)、X射线荧光(XRF)光谱和傅里叶变换红外(FTIR)光谱分析研究了凝胶的结构。XRF光谱显示,硅的氧化物形式是主要元素,微量元素浓度低。XRD结果表明所制备的二氧化硅具有结晶性。TEM图像证实了无条纹干凝胶和气凝胶的晶体结构和纳米结构。SAED证实凝胶是多晶的,没有条纹。扫描电镜专著显示了不同的精细表面球体,表明凝胶的纯度很高。FTIR显示了硅醇- oh键和Si-O-Si振动的吸收峰,证实了凝胶为纳米结构。所生产的二氧化硅的高产率、结晶性、纯度和结晶学特征表明,稻壳灰和粉碎的沙滩沙是生产二氧化硅纳米颗粒的替代二氧化硅来源,在生物医学领域、纳滤和作为提高材料强度的添加剂具有潜在的应用前景。
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引用次数: 0
On sentinel method of one-phase Stefan problem 单相Stefan问题的前哨方法
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-11-08 DOI: 10.46481/jnsps.2023.1772
Merabti Nesrine Lamya, Iqbal M. Batiha, Imad Rezzoug, Adel Ouannas, Taki-Eddine Ouassaeif
This paper is interested in studying the one-phase Stefan problem. For this purpose, we use the nonlinear sentinel method, which relies typically on the approximate controllability and the Fanchel-Rockafellar duality of the minimization problem, to prove the existence and uniqueness of a solution to this problem. In particular, our research focuses on the application of the nonlinear sentinel method to the single-phase Stefan problem. This approach aids in identifying an unspecified boundary section within the domain undergoing a liquid-solid phase transition. We track the evolution of the temperature profile in the liquid-solid material and the corresponding movement of its interface over time. Eventually, the local convergence used for the iterative numerical scheme is demonstrated.
本文主要研究单相Stefan问题。为此,我们使用非线性哨兵方法,该方法通常依赖于最小化问题的近似可控性和Fanchel-Rockafellar对偶性,来证明该问题解的存在唯一性。特别地,我们的研究重点是非线性前哨方法在单相Stefan问题中的应用。这种方法有助于在经历液固相变的区域内识别未指定的边界部分。我们跟踪了液-固材料中温度分布的演变及其界面随时间的相应运动。最后,证明了迭代数值格式的局部收敛性。
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引用次数: 0
Identification and Quantification of Bioactive Compounds in Different Extracts of Morinda lucida Benth (Rubiaceae) Root Using GC–MS Analysis 用气相色谱-质谱分析方法鉴定并定量分析桑椹根不同提取物的活性成分
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.46481/jnsps.2023.1534
David Adekunle, Esther Faboro, Labunmi Lajide
This study aims to analyze and describe the chemical constituents of various crude extracts derived from the root of Morinda lucida Benth (Rubiaceae), an ethnomedicinal plant commonly found in Nigeria. The root of Morinda lucida was dried at room temperature and pulverized into powder. The soxhlet extraction technique was used with solvents of different polarities, namely hexane, chloroform, and methanol, to obtain three distinct extracts. Subsequently, gas chromatography-mass spectrometry analysis was carried out on the extracts. A total of 69 compounds were identified from the different extracts of M. lucida root. The hexane extract had 3 major compounds and 8 minor ones, with diethyl phthalate being the most prominent with 87.10% peak area. The chloroform extract had 24 compounds, with phthalic acid, 2-Ethylhexyl isohexyl ester being the highest with 16.61% peak area. Six of these compounds had more than 5%, while the remaining 18 ranged from 2.50% to 1.00%. The ethanol extract contained 36 compounds, with 6 compounds being greater than 5% and the remaining 30 less than 5%. The highest percentage in the ethanol extract was 2-Pyrrolidinone, 1-methyl-, at 16.05%. In terms of the biological and pharmacology benefits, these chemicals are regarded as crucial. Also, each of the three extracts has a few similarities in their physicochemical properties that can be related to the natural substances that are abundantly found in M. lucida root. The GC-MS analysis of different extracts of M. lucida revealed the presence of several bioactive compounds that have potential therapeutic properties.
本研究旨在分析和描述尼日利亚常见的民族药植物Morinda lucida Benth (Rubiaceae)根的各种粗提物的化学成分。将桑椹根在室温下干燥,粉碎成粉末。采用索氏萃取法,在正己烷、氯仿和甲醇三种不同极性的溶剂下,得到三种不同的萃取物。随后,对提取物进行气相色谱-质谱分析。从露珠根不同提取物中共鉴定出69个化合物。己烷提取物中主要化合物3种,次要化合物8种,其中邻苯二甲酸二乙酯含量最高,峰面积达87.10%。氯仿提取物中含有24个化合物,其中邻苯二甲酸、2-乙基己基异己基酯含量最高,峰面积为16.61%。其中6种化合物的含量超过5%,其余18种化合物的含量在2.50%至1.00%之间。乙醇提取物中含有36个化合物,其中6个化合物含量大于5%,其余30个化合物含量小于5%。乙醇提取物中2-吡咯烷酮,1-甲基含量最高,为16.05%。在生物学和药理学方面,这些化学物质被认为是至关重要的。此外,这三种提取物中的每一种在物理化学性质上都有一些相似之处,这些相似之处可能与在露琪达根中大量发现的天然物质有关。GC-MS分析表明,不同提取物中含有几种具有潜在治疗作用的生物活性化合物。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of a fractional order climate model due to excessive emission and accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere 由于大气中二氧化碳的过度排放和积累造成的分数阶气候模式的分析
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-10-18 DOI: 10.46481/jnsps.2023.1749
Peter Urane Achimugwu, Mathew Ngugi Kinyanjui, David Mumo Malonza
The devastating consequences of climate change on our planet cannot be taken lightly. Greenhouse gas emissions due to the various activities of the increasing human population are solely responsible for this change. The chief and most significant of these gases is carbon dioxide. A fractional-order model of five compartments is considered. The uniqueness and existence, the positivity, and the boundedness of the model solution are established. The equilibrium points of the model are given. By formulating different Lyapunov functions, the global stability of the four equilibrium points was determined. The numerical simulation of the model was done using the Predict-Evaluate-Correct-Evaluate method of Adam-Bashforth-Moulton by considering four different orders of 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, and 1.0. According to the results, excessive concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can be reduced by the joint employment of mitigation measures.
气候变化给地球带来的灾难性后果不容小觑。不断增长的人口的各种活动造成的温室气体排放是造成这一变化的唯一原因。这些气体中最主要和最重要的是二氧化碳。考虑了一种五室的分数阶模型。建立了模型解的唯一性、存在性、正性和有界性。给出了模型的平衡点。通过构造不同的Lyapunov函数,确定了四个平衡点的全局稳定性。采用Adam-Bashforth-Moulton的Predict-Evaluate-Correct-Evaluate方法,分别考虑0.7、0.8、0.9和1.0四个不同的阶数,对模型进行了数值模拟。根据研究结果,可以通过联合采取减缓措施来降低大气中过高的二氧化碳浓度。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of different electrolytes on the structure and yield ofgraphene oxide produced via electrochemical exfoliation 不同电解质对电化学剥离氧化石墨烯结构和产率的影响
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-10-12 DOI: 10.46481/jnsps.2023.1183
Oluwole Adigun, Lasisi Egibunu Umoru, Temidayo Nancy Iwatan
The most suitable electrolyte for graphene oxide synthesis, in terms of both production efficiency and quality, using the electrochemical exfoliation technique has been investigated and reported in this study. Simultaneous anodic and cathodic graphene oxide production using ten (10) different electrolytes, including acids (H2SO4, HCl, HNO3), bases (KOH, Ca(OH)2, Mg(OH)2, NaOH), and salts (NaCl, (NH4)2SO4, K2SO4), was studied under the same experimental conditions of bias voltage, graphite nature, exfoliation time, electrolyte molarity, and post-exfoliation treatments. Assessment of the graphene oxide structures and production rates was supported using Raman spectroscopy, high-resolution scanning electron microscopy (HRSEM), and EDS (energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy), attached to the scanning electron microscope. Analysis of the results obtained reveals that H2SO4 showed the highest graphene oxide yield (86%) but with comparably low graphene oxide quality in terms of defect concentration, presence of oxygen functional group contamination, and crystallite properties. The aqueous NaCl, Ca(OH)2 and Mg(OH)2 electrolytes did not show any graphene oxide exfoliation effect. However, from the series of electrolytes examined, aqueous (NH4)2SO4 exhibited an excellent combination of efficient graphene oxide yield and high-quality characteristics due to its relatively high yield of 74% and superior quality of the produced graphene oxide with the comparatively lowest defect density, ?D, and highest C/O (carbon-to-oxygen) ratio. The tortuous, agglomerated, and planar layers of the distinct 2D graphene oxide sheets were also clearly revealed by the SEM images. In essence, the roles played by dissociated sulfate (SO42?), nitrate (NO32?), chlorides (Cl?), and hydroxides (OH?) ions in the series of complex electrochemical reactions toward the intercalation, exfoliation, yield, and properties of graphene oxide produced are discussed. From the series of electrolytes tested, aqueous (NH4)2SO4 emerged as the most relatively suitable electrolyte for the synthesis of graphene oxide because it combines both high yield and fine quality.
从生产效率和质量两方面研究了电化学剥离技术合成氧化石墨烯最合适的电解质。在相同的实验条件下,研究了在偏置电压、石墨性质、剥离时间、电解质摩尔浓度和剥离后处理等条件下,使用酸(H2SO4、HCl、HNO3)、碱(KOH、Ca(OH)2、Mg(OH)2、NaOH)和盐(NaCl、(NH4)2SO4、K2SO4)等10种不同电解质同时阳极和阴极制备氧化石墨烯的工艺。利用拉曼光谱、高分辨率扫描电子显微镜(HRSEM)和EDS(能量色散x射线光谱)对氧化石墨烯的结构和生产速度进行了评估。对所得结果的分析表明,H2SO4的氧化石墨烯产率最高(86%),但在缺陷浓度、氧官能团污染的存在和晶体性质方面,氧化石墨烯的质量相对较低。水溶液NaCl、Ca(OH)2和Mg(OH)2电解质没有表现出氧化石墨烯的剥离作用。然而,从测试的电解质系列来看,水溶液(NH4)2SO4表现出了高效氧化石墨烯产率和高质量特性的完美结合,因为它的产率相对较高,达到74%,所生产的氧化石墨烯质量上乘,缺陷密度(D)相对最低,碳氧比(C/O)最高。二维氧化石墨烯片的弯曲、凝聚和平面层也被扫描电镜清晰地显示出来。从本质上讲,本文讨论了离解硫酸盐(SO42?)、硝酸盐(NO32?)、氯化物(Cl?)和氢氧化物(OH?)离子在一系列复杂的电化学反应中对氧化石墨烯的嵌入、剥离、收率和性能所起的作用。从测试的一系列电解质中,水溶液(NH4)2SO4成为合成氧化石墨烯最合适的电解质,因为它兼具高产率和优良品质。
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引用次数: 0
Unsteady Prandtl nanofluidic flow through stretching sheet due to mixed convection, first-order slip, and chemical reaction 基于混合对流、一阶滑移和化学反应的非定常普朗特纳米流体在拉伸片中的流动
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-10-08 DOI: 10.46481/jnsps.2023.1140
V. Ramanjini, G. Gopi Krishna, Mani Ramanuja, Hari Kamala Sree, S. R. Mishra
This article explores the unsteady flow, heat, and mass transport of a Prandtl nanofluid flow over a stretching sheet due to the existence of mixed convection, first-order slip, and chemical reaction. The flow characteristics are analysed for the interaction of thermal and solutal Biot numbers. The system of coupled non-linear leading partial differential equations (PDEs) is converted into non-linear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with the facilitation of given similarity transformations. Furthermore, these equations are solved by applying a semi-analytical method termed the “Optimal Homotopy Analysis Method” (OHAM) using the computational software MATHEMATICA. The tables and Figures present the numerical computations of the pertinent parameters of the flow problems. The essential findings of this study are for the growing values of the Prandtl parameter, the velocity profile is enhanced, and the temperature profiles show the opposite behaviour. Unsteady parameters reduced the thickness of the heat and moving boundary layers. The temperature profiles are enhanced as the thermal Biot number grows, and similar characteristics can be observed in the solutal Biot number on concentration profiles.
本文探讨了由于混合对流、一阶滑移和化学反应的存在,普朗特纳米流体在拉伸薄片上的非定常流动、热量和质量传递。分析了热溶质Biot数与溶质Biot数相互作用下的流动特性。利用给定的相似变换,将耦合非线性前导偏微分方程系统转化为非线性常微分方程。此外,利用数学软件MATHEMATICA,采用一种称为“最优同伦分析法”(OHAM)的半解析方法求解这些方程。表格和图表给出了流动问题相关参数的数值计算。本研究的主要发现是,随着普朗特参数的增大,速度分布增强,而温度分布表现出相反的行为。非定常参数减小了热边界层和动边界层的厚度。温度分布随热Biot数的增加而增强,浓度分布上的溶质Biot数也有类似的特征。
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引用次数: 0
Experimental and computational studies of the corrosion inhibitive effects of Zingiber officinale rhizomes on mild steel corrosion in acidic solutions 生姜根茎在酸性溶液中对低碳钢缓蚀作用的实验与计算研究
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-08-12 DOI: 10.46481/jnsps.2023.1386
Chinonso Adindu, Simeon Nwanonenyi, Chinyere Ikpa
The study investigates the anticorrosion potentials of Zingiber officinale (ZO) on mild steel induced in 1.0 M HCl and 0.5 M H2SO4 acid solution respectively using structural characterization (gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy, GC-MS and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, FTIR) and electrochemical (electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, EIS and potentiodynamic polarization, PDP) techniques respectively and theoretical simulations. The structural characterization was performed to identify chemical constituents and functional groups present in the plant extract whereas electrochemical techniques and theoretical computations were used to examine the anticorrosion potentials of the extract and validate the experimental results. The GC-MS result revealed the presence of twenty-three (23) compounds within the extract and out of which three (1-(1,5-dimethyl-4-hexenyl)-4-methyl-, dodecanoic acid and 9-Octadecenoic acid (Z)-2-hydroxy-1-(hydroxymethyl)ethyl ester) were selected for computational simulation and the results of FTIR revealed the presence of the following functional groups (O-H, C=C, C=O, C-C and C-H) in the ZO extract. The results of EIS revealed that extract of ZO exhibited corrosion inhibition efficieny of 82.7% and 93.6 % for mild steel in 1 M HCl and 0.5 M H2SO4 solution respectively at maximum inhibitor concentration of 1000 mg/L for mild steel. Also, PDP results revealed that ZO extract functioned as mixed inhibitor because both the anodic and cathodic reaction process was altered. The quantum chemical calculation results revealed that 9- Octadecenoic acid (Z)-2-hydroxy-1-(hydroxymethyl) ethyl ester had a good energy gap (Delta E) compared to other two compounds, indicating its better adsorption interaction with the metal surface in sulfuric acid environment. This was further confirmed by its good adsorption energy of -355.55 Kcal/mol with mild steel surface in H2SO4 environment compared with -167.81Kcal/mol in HCl environment from the molecular dynamic simulation.
采用结构表征(气相色谱-质谱,GC-MS和傅里叶变换红外光谱,FTIR)和电化学表征(电化学阻抗谱,EIS和动电位极化,PDP)技术和理论模拟分别研究了在1.0 M HCl和0.5 M H2SO4酸溶液中诱导的Zingiber officinale (ZO)对低碳钢的腐蚀电位。通过结构表征来确定植物提取物中存在的化学成分和官能团,并使用电化学技术和理论计算来检查提取物的防腐电位并验证实验结果。GC-MS结果显示萃取物中存在23种化合物,其中选择3种(1-(1,5-二甲基-4-己烯基)-4-甲基-、十二烷酸和9-十八烯酸(Z)-2-羟基-1-(羟甲基)乙酯)进行计算模拟,FTIR结果显示萃取物中存在以下官能团(O- h, C=C, C=O, C-C和C- h)。EIS结果表明,在1 M HCl和0.5 M H2SO4溶液中,ZO提取物对低碳钢的缓蚀效率分别为82.7%和93.6%,缓蚀剂的最大浓度为1000 mg/L。此外,PDP结果表明,ZO提取物由于改变了阳极和阴极反应过程而具有混合抑制剂的功能。量子化学计算结果表明,与其他两种化合物相比,9-十八烯酸(Z)-2-羟基-1-(羟甲基)乙酯具有良好的能隙(Delta E),表明其在硫酸环境下与金属表面有更好的吸附相互作用。分子动力学模拟表明,低碳钢表面在H2SO4环境下的吸附能为-355.55 Kcal/mol,而在HCl环境下的吸附能为-167.81Kcal/mol。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Nigerian Society of Physical Sciences
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