Neural networks have been used as a nonparametric method for option pricing and hedging since the early 1990s. Far over a hundred papers have been published on this topic. This note intends to provide a comprehensive review. Papers are compared in terms of input features, output variables, benchmark models, performance measures, data partition methods, and underlying assets. Furthermore, related work and regularisation techniques are discussed.
{"title":"Neural Networks for Option Pricing and Hedging: A Literature Review","authors":"J. Ruf, Weiguan Wang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3486363","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3486363","url":null,"abstract":"Neural networks have been used as a nonparametric method for option pricing and hedging since the early 1990s. Far over a hundred papers have been published on this topic. This note intends to provide a comprehensive review. Papers are compared in terms of input features, output variables, benchmark models, performance measures, data partition methods, and underlying assets. Furthermore, related work and regularisation techniques are discussed.","PeriodicalId":351155,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other Political Methods: Quantitative Methods (Topic)","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126974046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
When missing data are produced by a non-ignorable nonresponse mechanism, analysis of the observed data should include a model for the probabilities of responding. In this paper we propose such models for nonresponse in survey questions which are treated as multiple-item measures of latent constructs and analysed using latent variable models. The nonresponse models that we describe include additional latent variables (latent response propensities) which determine the response probabilities. We argue that this model should be specified as flexibly as possible, and propose models where the response propensity is a categorical variable (a latent response class). This can be combined with any latent variable model for the survey items themselves, and an association between the latent variables measured by the items and the latent response propensities implies a model with non-ignorable nonresponse. We consider in particular the analysis of data from cross-national surveys, where the nonresponse model may also vary across the countries. The models are applied to analyse data on welfare attitudes in 29 countries in the European Social Survey.
{"title":"Latent Variable Modelling with Non-Ignorable Item Nonresponse: A General Framework and Multigroup Models for Cross-National Analysis","authors":"J. Kuha, M. Katsikatsou, I. Moustaki","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2822202","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2822202","url":null,"abstract":"When missing data are produced by a non-ignorable nonresponse mechanism, analysis of the observed data should include a model for the probabilities of responding. In this paper we propose such models for nonresponse in survey questions which are treated as multiple-item measures of latent constructs and analysed using latent variable models. The nonresponse models that we describe include additional latent variables (latent response propensities) which determine the response probabilities. We argue that this model should be specified as flexibly as possible, and propose models where the response propensity is a categorical variable (a latent response class). This can be combined with any latent variable model for the survey items themselves, and an association between the latent variables measured by the items and the latent response propensities implies a model with non-ignorable nonresponse. We consider in particular the analysis of data from cross-national surveys, where the nonresponse model may also vary across the countries. The models are applied to analyse data on welfare attitudes in 29 countries in the European Social Survey.","PeriodicalId":351155,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other Political Methods: Quantitative Methods (Topic)","volume":"151 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121497604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Interpersonal influence is an important, yet difficult to measure factor mediating legislative outcomes in the United States Congress. Building on theories that conceptualize a legislator's influence as an individual property, I cast influence in a relational framework, recognizing that influence is exercised through legislators’ social and political networks. I develop a novel measure of legislative influence using temporal patterns in bill cosponsorship data as an instrument to infer a latent network of influence relationships between legislators. I then validate the measure of legislative influence I derive from these networks in several contexts. For example, scholars have observed a decrease in the power of committee chairs relative to party leadership over time, yet existing quantitative measures of interpersonal influence do not agree with these findings at a micro level. I find that my measure performs like an effective measure of interpersonal influence in Congress.
{"title":"Influence in the United States Senate","authors":"Matthew J. Denny","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2465309","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2465309","url":null,"abstract":"Interpersonal influence is an important, yet difficult to measure factor mediating legislative outcomes in the United States Congress. Building on theories that conceptualize a legislator's influence as an individual property, I cast influence in a relational framework, recognizing that influence is exercised through legislators’ social and political networks. I develop a novel measure of legislative influence using temporal patterns in bill cosponsorship data as an instrument to infer a latent network of influence relationships between legislators. I then validate the measure of legislative influence I derive from these networks in several contexts. For example, scholars have observed a decrease in the power of committee chairs relative to party leadership over time, yet existing quantitative measures of interpersonal influence do not agree with these findings at a micro level. I find that my measure performs like an effective measure of interpersonal influence in Congress.","PeriodicalId":351155,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other Political Methods: Quantitative Methods (Topic)","volume":"88 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115422303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The research on social science eventually comes through any meaning about the human and society. Its message is directed to the society and the principal object of research would be its components, generally research participants or samples in terms of research method. As for nature, it is per se obvious that humans or populace act on various factors to influence their decision. This complex nature of human strands generally prevail that the multivariate analysis is an usual challenge for the social science researchers. For example, the researchers may like to know the relationship of special training on math and achievement of math score. He or she may apply a multivariate analysis from several variables, in which one may be controlled and pretest or post test will be administered. So he groups two classes in test and for a longitudinal study over one semester between the specially trained students and normal class. Then he adds one other variable of family income level that he supposes one important factor to affect the achievement of student in math subject. This would be quantitatively answered by applying a multivariate test, called specifically as factoral ANOVA. The simple ANOVA test may be dosed in several times to understand more a complex interaction or control among the variables. Nevertheless, it has the weakness that unnecessary time and effort would be consumed. Additionally, MANOVA or other multivariate analysis of data would lead us to the more intense and precise result when the variables in consideration all interact to affect the outcome variables. It can be made distinct from mere aggregation of each result from one way ANOVA or univariate and bivariate analysis. Like these, in various ways. the quantitative studies are used to find the scientific truth. Through the Quantitative Reasoning and Analysis (QRA), we could achieve much progress which would be helpful to accelerate the interest and skills in the empirical studies. Most of all, the studies in concern of quantitative method might be a leapfrog for one, who fears of the difficult quantitative skills of analysis. Many of researchers may be fragile since the math courses in the high school and one pass in the college days are all we may have experienced. It is challenging also because the days might be far gone of middle age. For this reason, it never is a puffery that we would fear of quantitative skills. I hope that this paper could be a small help to adapt with the quantitative paradigm. Additionally, it would be great to realize that the quantitative reasoning is fairly powerful and very persuasive to frame a scientific message not only for the peer professionals, but also for lay world. We don’t have to cite the belief of empiricists and its modern evolution backed up by the mathematicians and statisticians. The benefit from this research method is obvious from many realities. The SPSS program facilitates to save from the difficult hand-on works in the earlier quanti
社会科学的研究最终是通过对人类和社会的任何意义来实现的。它的信息是针对社会的，研究的主要对象是它的组成部分，一般是研究参与者或研究方法方面的样本。就自然而言，很明显，人类或民众会根据各种因素来影响他们的决定。由于人类基因链的复杂性，对社会科学研究者来说，多变量分析是一个常见的挑战。例如，研究人员可能想知道数学特殊训练与数学成绩的关系。他或她可以应用多个变量的多变量分析，其中一个变量可以被控制，并将进行前测或后测。因此，他将两个班级分成两组进行测试，并在一个学期内对受过特殊训练的学生和普通班级进行纵向研究。然后，他加入了另一个变量家庭收入水平，他认为这是影响学生数学成绩的一个重要因素。这将通过应用多变量检验来定量地回答，具体称为因子方差分析。简单的方差分析检验可以多次进行，以了解变量之间更复杂的相互作用或控制。然而，它的缺点是会消耗不必要的时间和精力。此外，当考虑的变量都相互作用影响结果变量时，方差分析或其他数据的多变量分析将使我们得到更强烈和精确的结果。它可以区别于单因素方差分析或单因素和双因素分析的每个结果的单纯汇总。就像这些，以不同的方式。定量研究是用来寻找科学真理的。通过定量推理与分析(Quantitative Reasoning and Analysis, QRA)，我们可以取得很大的进展，这将有助于提高实证研究的兴趣和技能。最重要的是，有关定量方法的研究可能是一个跨越式的人，谁害怕困难的定量分析技能。许多研究者可能是脆弱的，因为我们可能只经历过高中的数学课和大学的一次及格。这也是一个挑战，因为中年的日子可能已经远去了。出于这个原因，我们对量化技能的恐惧从来都不是夸大其词。我希望本文能对适应定量范式有所帮助。此外，认识到定量推理是相当强大的，非常有说服力的，不仅对同行专业人士，而且对非专业人士来说，都是一个科学信息的框架。我们不必引用经验主义者的信仰，以及由数学家和统计学家支持的现代演变。从许多实际情况来看，这种研究方法的好处是显而易见的。SPSS程序有助于从早期定量研究中困难的动手工作中节省。实证研究，特别是在定量研究领域，通常与大量的调查实验有关，这给研究界带来了一种政治嫁接的味道。
{"title":"On the Method: Quantitative Reasonsing and Social Science","authors":"Kiyoung Kim","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2595633","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2595633","url":null,"abstract":"The research on social science eventually comes through any meaning about the human and society. Its message is directed to the society and the principal object of research would be its components, generally research participants or samples in terms of research method. As for nature, it is per se obvious that humans or populace act on various factors to influence their decision. This complex nature of human strands generally prevail that the multivariate analysis is an usual challenge for the social science researchers. For example, the researchers may like to know the relationship of special training on math and achievement of math score. He or she may apply a multivariate analysis from several variables, in which one may be controlled and pretest or post test will be administered. So he groups two classes in test and for a longitudinal study over one semester between the specially trained students and normal class. Then he adds one other variable of family income level that he supposes one important factor to affect the achievement of student in math subject. This would be quantitatively answered by applying a multivariate test, called specifically as factoral ANOVA. The simple ANOVA test may be dosed in several times to understand more a complex interaction or control among the variables. Nevertheless, it has the weakness that unnecessary time and effort would be consumed. Additionally, MANOVA or other multivariate analysis of data would lead us to the more intense and precise result when the variables in consideration all interact to affect the outcome variables. It can be made distinct from mere aggregation of each result from one way ANOVA or univariate and bivariate analysis. Like these, in various ways. the quantitative studies are used to find the scientific truth. Through the Quantitative Reasoning and Analysis (QRA), we could achieve much progress which would be helpful to accelerate the interest and skills in the empirical studies. Most of all, the studies in concern of quantitative method might be a leapfrog for one, who fears of the difficult quantitative skills of analysis. Many of researchers may be fragile since the math courses in the high school and one pass in the college days are all we may have experienced. It is challenging also because the days might be far gone of middle age. For this reason, it never is a puffery that we would fear of quantitative skills. I hope that this paper could be a small help to adapt with the quantitative paradigm. Additionally, it would be great to realize that the quantitative reasoning is fairly powerful and very persuasive to frame a scientific message not only for the peer professionals, but also for lay world. We don’t have to cite the belief of empiricists and its modern evolution backed up by the mathematicians and statisticians. The benefit from this research method is obvious from many realities. The SPSS program facilitates to save from the difficult hand-on works in the earlier quanti","PeriodicalId":351155,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other Political Methods: Quantitative Methods (Topic)","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133870466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tax limitations (TLs) represent a class of lawmaking that often pits voters against the incentives of their elected representatives. Thus, are voter backed TLs successful in changing state government fiscal behavior? Using agency theory, we discuss how TLs will likely be ineffective at their stated goals in the face of hostile legislative interests. We test the effectiveness of these measures through use of the Synthetic Control Method presented by Abadie, Diamond, and Hainmueller (2010), which allows us to analyze the passage of TLs in each state individually by comparing them to constructed counterfactuals that estimate what constant-level taxes would have been in each state had its TL never been passed. Using this approach, we show that these TLs are almost always ineffective at reducing taxes or expenditures. This result is consistent with recent studies that highlight the ineffectiveness of initiatives. We will argue that the ineffectiveness of TLs is also true generally, for the same reasons that initiatives are typically ineffective in that there is no means for the people to implement, oversee, or enforce the limits and legislatures will often be unwilling to enforce these limitations themselves.
{"title":"Cheating on Their Taxes: When are Tax Limitations Effective at Limiting State Taxes, Expenditures, and Budgets?","authors":"Colin H. McCubbins, Mathew D. McCubbins","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2417868","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2417868","url":null,"abstract":"Tax limitations (TLs) represent a class of lawmaking that often pits voters against the incentives of their elected representatives. Thus, are voter backed TLs successful in changing state government fiscal behavior? Using agency theory, we discuss how TLs will likely be ineffective at their stated goals in the face of hostile legislative interests. We test the effectiveness of these measures through use of the Synthetic Control Method presented by Abadie, Diamond, and Hainmueller (2010), which allows us to analyze the passage of TLs in each state individually by comparing them to constructed counterfactuals that estimate what constant-level taxes would have been in each state had its TL never been passed. Using this approach, we show that these TLs are almost always ineffective at reducing taxes or expenditures. This result is consistent with recent studies that highlight the ineffectiveness of initiatives. We will argue that the ineffectiveness of TLs is also true generally, for the same reasons that initiatives are typically ineffective in that there is no means for the people to implement, oversee, or enforce the limits and legislatures will often be unwilling to enforce these limitations themselves.","PeriodicalId":351155,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other Political Methods: Quantitative Methods (Topic)","volume":"53 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122602615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
As voters switch political preferences from election to election, understanding the magnitude of voter flows among parties and transitions between voters and non-voters is an essential element of political analysis. As exit polls are uncommon in Canada, voter migration can also be estimated using suitable statistical techniques. Backing out micro-level voter migration probabilities from macro-level election data is a problem of `ecological inference.' This paper uses the method of generalized maximum entropy (GME) to estimate voter migration patterns for the two most recent recent Canadian federal elections (2004 and 2006) and the most recent provincial election in British Columbia (2005). The estimation results answer important questions about voter behaviour in Canada. These results will be of interest to political scientists, historians, and politicians, as well as econometric practicioners who wish to estimate voter migration.
{"title":"Estimating Voter Migration in Canada Using Generalized Maximum Entropy","authors":"Werner Antweiler","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.930232","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.930232","url":null,"abstract":"As voters switch political preferences from election to election, understanding the magnitude of voter flows among parties and transitions between voters and non-voters is an essential element of political analysis. As exit polls are uncommon in Canada, voter migration can also be estimated using suitable statistical techniques. Backing out micro-level voter migration probabilities from macro-level election data is a problem of `ecological inference.' This paper uses the method of generalized maximum entropy (GME) to estimate voter migration patterns for the two most recent recent Canadian federal elections (2004 and 2006) and the most recent provincial election in British Columbia (2005). The estimation results answer important questions about voter behaviour in Canada. These results will be of interest to political scientists, historians, and politicians, as well as econometric practicioners who wish to estimate voter migration.","PeriodicalId":351155,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other Political Methods: Quantitative Methods (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129921802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Scope: Qualitative research in worldly action; Towards paradigm and procedure; Five traditions-of-inquiry (Biography, Phenomenology, Grounded Theory, Ethnography, Case Study); Further 'genres of research' (Phenomenography, Hermeneutics, Action Research, Delphi); Looking laterally at qualitative, quantitative, empirical distinctions. Posted on websites from 2006.Context. This Thinking-Working Paper was prepared as a Professional Inquiry project.It starts from basics and includes features that would likely be unwelcome in a paper heading toward formal publication. Such as, mechanics, personal reflection and rhetorical comment tangled with the investigation and analysis. Also sizeable quotes and listings of potential sources! For me, these provide context, illustrative evidence, and a record for later reference and usage. More books and articles have materialised since - but this covers enough ground! I particularly like my analysis around 'empirical' and its nuanced usage. sjwContents:1 Inquiry in Context 2 Strategically searching and scoping 3 A sweep of methodologies i. Qualitative research in worldly action ii. Towards paradigm and procedure iii. Five traditions-of-inquiry - Biography, Phenomenology, Grounded Theory, Ethnography, Case Study iv. Other ‘genres of research’ - Phenomenography, Hermeneutics, Action Research, Delphi Technique v. Looking laterally – qualitative, quantitative, empirical 4 Towards deeper and clearer.
{"title":"FIT for PURPOSE? A Consumer Look into Qualitative Research Models","authors":"Sandra J. Welsman","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1396129","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1396129","url":null,"abstract":"Scope: Qualitative research in worldly action; Towards paradigm and procedure; Five traditions-of-inquiry (Biography, Phenomenology, Grounded Theory, Ethnography, Case Study); Further 'genres of research' (Phenomenography, Hermeneutics, Action Research, Delphi); Looking laterally at qualitative, quantitative, empirical distinctions. Posted on websites from 2006.Context. This Thinking-Working Paper was prepared as a Professional Inquiry project.It starts from basics and includes features that would likely be unwelcome in a paper heading toward formal publication. Such as, mechanics, personal reflection and rhetorical comment tangled with the investigation and analysis. Also sizeable quotes and listings of potential sources! For me, these provide context, illustrative evidence, and a record for later reference and usage. More books and articles have materialised since - but this covers enough ground! I particularly like my analysis around 'empirical' and its nuanced usage. sjwContents:1 Inquiry in Context 2 Strategically searching and scoping 3 A sweep of methodologies i. Qualitative research in worldly action ii. Towards paradigm and procedure iii. Five traditions-of-inquiry - Biography, Phenomenology, Grounded Theory, Ethnography, Case Study iv. Other ‘genres of research’ - Phenomenography, Hermeneutics, Action Research, Delphi Technique v. Looking laterally – qualitative, quantitative, empirical 4 Towards deeper and clearer.","PeriodicalId":351155,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Other Political Methods: Quantitative Methods (Topic)","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132616893","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：