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The New Party Challenge最新文献

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The Old and the New 旧的和新的
Pub Date : 2020-12-15 DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780198812920.003.0004
T. Haughton, K. deegan-Krause
New parties are different from the more established parties in terms of their organization, appeals, and leadership. Not only do they often take the cosmetic step of avoiding the word ‘party’ in their names, but they also usually choose very different organizational structures, with far fewer members and party branches. Furthermore, in contrast to the more established parties whose pitch is based on left–right economic positioning or their socially conservative or socially liberal stances, new parties make a pitch to the electorate based around their novelty, the personality and celebrity of their leader, and an anti-corruption appeal. Finally, many of these new parties are much more leader-dominated vehicles than the longer-established parties. These choices made by the new parties may have positive impacts on their chances of initial success, but have negative impacts on their chances of longer-term survival.
新党在组织、号召力、领导能力等方面都不同于老牌政党。他们不仅经常在名字中避免使用“党”这个词,而且通常选择非常不同的组织结构,成员和党支部都要少得多。此外,与基于左右经济定位或社会保守或社会自由立场的更成熟的政党相比,新政党根据其新颖性,其领导人的个性和名人以及反腐败呼吁向选民进行宣传。最后,与历史悠久的政党相比,许多新政党在更大程度上是由领导人主导的。新政党做出的这些选择可能对其最初成功的机会产生积极影响,但对其长期生存的机会产生消极影响。
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引用次数: 0
Cycles and Subsystems 循环与子系统
Pub Date : 2020-12-15 DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780198812920.003.0006
T. Haughton, K. deegan-Krause
Most accounts of the emergence of new parties are episodic, but to understand the rise and breakthrough of new parties in Central Europe requires an understanding of the links between party death and party birth, between one cohort of new parties and the next. Parties proclaiming their novelty, anti-corruption appeals, and the celebrity of their leader usually do not survive for long. Their death creates space for a newer party to emerge and break through. This chapter illustrates the dynamic in terms of a new party subsystem. Tracing the movement of voters from one election to the next offers clear evidence that once voters have chosen a new party in one election, they are more likely to choose a newer party in the subsequent election. Computer simulations help to illustrate the dynamics of new party emergence and gauge the impact of specific factors in explaining new party emergence.
大多数关于新政党出现的描述都是断断续续的,但要理解中欧新政党的崛起和突破,需要理解政党死亡和政党诞生之间的联系,以及一群新政党和下一群新政党之间的联系。标榜自己的新颖性、反腐败诉求以及领导人的知名度的政党通常不会长久存在。它们的死亡为新势力的出现和突破创造了空间。本章从一个新的政党子系统的角度阐述了这种动态。追踪选民从一次选举到下一次选举的运动提供了明确的证据,即选民一旦在一次选举中选择了一个新的政党,他们就更有可能在随后的选举中选择一个新的政党。计算机模拟有助于说明新政党出现的动态,并衡量解释新政党出现的特定因素的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Neither Older nor Wiser? What Continual Party Change Means for the Quality of Democracy 既不老也不聪明?政党的不断变化对民主质量意味着什么
Pub Date : 2020-12-15 DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780198812920.003.0008
T. Haughton, K. deegan-Krause
New party emergence poses major questions for the quality of democracy. New parties can help remove incompetent and corrupt politicians from power, re-engage citizens, represent neglected interests and issues, respond to changes in society, and provoke established parties to perform better. But new party emergence can also bring into public office inexperienced individuals offering easy and unworkable solutions to society’s woes. When they fail to deliver, they can further undermine trust in democracy, and fuel cynicism and disillusionment in politics more broadly. New parties may be responsive, but they are less likely to be responsible. Moreover, new parties tend to focus on the present, with a series of shorter-term goals. With their longer-term time horizons, well-developed and institutionalized parties are much more likely to help foster environments conducive to the innovation and technological progress integral to long-run economic development.
新政党的出现对民主的质量提出了重大问题。新政党可以帮助将无能和腐败的政客赶下台,重新吸引公民,代表被忽视的利益和问题,对社会变化做出反应,并促使老牌政党表现得更好。但是,新政党的出现也可能使缺乏经验的个人进入公职,为社会的困境提供简单而不可行的解决方案。当他们未能兑现承诺时,他们会进一步破坏人们对民主的信任,并在更广泛的范围内助长政治上的玩世不恭和幻灭。新政党可能会做出反应,但他们不太可能负责任。此外,新政党倾向于关注当前,有一系列短期目标。从长远来看,发达和制度化的各方更有可能帮助营造有利于创新和技术进步的环境,这是长期经济发展所不可或缺的。
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引用次数: 0
The Living and the Dead 生者与死者
Pub Date : 2020-12-15 DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780198812920.003.0005
T. Haughton, K. deegan-Krause
Although the party systems of Central Europe have witnessed significant turbulence, some parties have survived. Endurance is more common among parties that built well-developed organizational structures, took a clear ideological stance as a standard-bearer on a major enduring issue divide of politics, and developed internal institutional structures that allow for a passing of the leadership baton when leaders had outlived their usefulness. In contrast, many new parties created in Central Europe do not have these characteristics. Their chances of survival are often diminished further by participation in government when they find it hard to deliver on their promises. Given the way that new parties begin, it is therefore not much of a surprise that most do not survive for more than a few election cycles. A few new parties were able to survive, but they did so mainly by actively choosing to acquire characteristics of the long-established parties.
尽管中欧的政党制度经历了巨大的动荡,但一些政党幸存了下来。忍耐在政党中更为常见,这些政党建立了完善的组织结构,在政治分歧的重大问题上采取了明确的意识形态立场,并建立了内部制度结构,允许领导人在失去作用时移交领导权。相比之下,中欧许多新成立的政党并不具备这些特征。当他们发现很难兑现自己的承诺时,他们的生存机会往往会因参与政府而进一步减少。考虑到新政党成立的方式,大多数政党都撑不过几个选举周期也就不足为奇了。少数新政党得以生存,但它们主要是通过积极选择获得老牌政党的特征而得以生存。
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引用次数: 0
What’s New? How to Refine our Assessments of Party Novelty 有什么新鲜事吗?如何完善党的新颖性评价
Pub Date : 2020-12-15 DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780198812920.003.0002
T. Haughton, K. deegan-Krause
Scholars have disagreed over how to assess and measure what constitutes a ‘new’ political party. The different understandings of newness matter because they are used in attempts to measure the overall instability of party systems, often producing widely varying results for volatility calculations. There are multiple approaches to assessing novelty. Some are rooted in studying party origins, while others are based on party attributes, and there is a wide range of views on the thresholds for what counts as new. Combining the origin and attribute approaches provides the best way of understanding the degree of change. The chapter assesses parties on a multi-level range of change from ‘Continuation’ through to ‘Inception’. This range permits both stricter and looser definitions to be used to determine the level and extent of newness in a political system, and thus works around the problem of inconsistent evaluations of parties and conflicting methods of classification.
学者们在如何评估和衡量“新”政党的构成方面存在分歧。对新颖性的不同理解很重要,因为它们被用来衡量政党制度的整体不稳定性,通常会在波动性计算中产生大相径庭的结果。评估新颖性有多种方法。一些是基于对政党起源的研究,而另一些则是基于政党属性,对于什么是新事物的门槛,人们有各种各样的观点。结合起源和属性方法提供了理解变化程度的最佳方法。本章对各方从“延续”到“盗梦”的多层次变化进行评估。这个范围允许使用更严格和更宽松的定义来确定政治系统中的新颖性的水平和程度,从而解决对政党的评估不一致和分类方法冲突的问题。
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引用次数: 0
Maps and Measures 地图和测量
Pub Date : 2020-12-15 DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780198812920.003.0003
T. Haughton, K. deegan-Krause
In order to better understand the dynamics of party politics in Central Europe, it is necessary to map and measure the party systems and the rise of new parties. The chapter maps in graphic form the development of the party systems in eleven states (Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia) since 1989, showing the rise and fall of parties, and all the splits, splinters, and mergers. Using the party change and newness frameworks of Chapter 2, this chapter assess all eleven party systems using a variety of measures including volatility, party age, and weighted party age. Although the results show considerable variation across the region, all countries have seen significant volatility and the frequent appearance of sizeable new parties. These findings underline a process of continual change in the party systems of Central Europe.
为了更好地了解中欧政党政治的动态,有必要绘制和衡量政党制度和新政党的兴起。本章以图形形式描绘了1989年以来11个国家(保加利亚、克罗地亚、捷克共和国、爱沙尼亚、匈牙利、拉脱维亚、立陶宛、波兰、罗马尼亚、斯洛伐克和斯洛文尼亚)政党制度的发展,展示了政党的兴衰,以及所有的分裂、分裂和合并。本章使用第2章的政党变化和新颖性框架,使用包括波动性、政党年龄和加权政党年龄在内的各种措施评估所有11个政党制度。尽管结果显示整个区域的差异很大,但所有国家都出现了显著的波动,并且经常出现规模较大的新政党。这些发现强调了中欧政党制度不断变化的过程。
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引用次数: 0
Slovenia Is Everywhere? How New Party Subsystems and Cycles Extend Worldwide 斯洛文尼亚无处不在?新的聚会子系统和循环如何在全球范围内扩展
Pub Date : 2020-12-15 DOI: 10.1093/OSO/9780198812920.003.0007
T. Haughton, K. deegan-Krause
Many of the patterns of party politics we have witnessed in Central Europe are also in evidence in other regions of the world. From Iceland to Israel, from Greece, and Guatemala, and in countries as diverse as Peru and Japan, new parties and politicians have broken through, and some old, seemingly well-established, parties have lost significant levels of support or collapsed altogether. The emergence of new parties in many countries across the globe follow the patterns of their predecessors in Central Europe, with thin organization, celebrity leaders and appeals based on anti-corruption, and newness itself. Many of these new parties have also exhibited short shelf-lives, living fast and dying young, creating space and a voting base for a subsequent wave of new parties.
我们在中欧看到的许多政党政治模式在世界其他地区也有明显的表现。从冰岛到以色列,从希腊到危地马拉,从秘鲁到日本,在各种各样的国家,新的政党和政治家取得了突破,而一些看似稳固的旧政党则失去了大量的支持或完全崩溃。在全球许多国家,新政党的出现遵循了中欧前辈的模式,组织单薄,领袖名人,以反腐败为基础的呼吁,以及新事物本身。这些新政党中的许多也表现出了短暂的生存期,活得快,死得早,为随后一波新政党创造了空间和投票基础。
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引用次数: 0
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The New Party Challenge
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