The California Independent System Operator (CAISO) aims to “support” and “facilitate” wholesale market participation by aggregations of distributed energy resources (DERs)—solar panels, batteries, and other energy technologies installed in small quantities at scattered locations. This reflect CAISO’s recognition that “[t]he number and diversity of these resources are growing and represent an increasingly important part of the future grid.” However, CAISO has also recognized that system operators can only draw on DERs if they perform reliably, their operation is predictable and transparent, and their contributions are large enough to be economical both to their owners and the grid as a whole. While the aggregation of multiple DERs can support each of these conditions, providing for such aggregation will require adjustments to existing wholesale market rules. CAISO is not alone in recognizing the potential contributions to market performance of aggregated DERs, but it was the first wholesale market operator to begin exploring how to make the adjustments necessary to enable their participation. Similar programs for the aggregation of demand response have existed in markets operated by CAISO and other independent system operators and regional transmission organizations (ISO/RTOs) for several years. Those programs do not, however, allow energy exports to the bulk power grid. To address this limitation, CAISO adopted a new program, which allows DERs to provide energy and ancillary services to the grid. At the time of writing, CAISO’s program had attracted just four participants—DER providers or “DERPs”—none of which had yet begun operating in the energy or ancillary services markets. Meanwhile, the other ISO/RTOs and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC or the Commission) that oversees them are following CAISO into the fray. The FERC is considering requiring all ISO/RTOs to adopt their own programs for DER aggregation, which may be modeled on the one currently used by CAISO. Despite this, however, there has been no comprehensive review of how the CAISO program is operating and why it has attracted so few participants. This article is intended to fill that gap, examining CAISO’s DER program after its first year of operation.
{"title":"Distributed Energy Resource Participation in Wholesale Markets: Lessons from the California ISO","authors":"Justin Gundlach, Romany M. Webb","doi":"10.7916/D8CR79T5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7916/D8CR79T5","url":null,"abstract":"The California Independent System Operator (CAISO) aims to “support” and “facilitate” wholesale market participation by aggregations of distributed energy resources (DERs)—solar panels, batteries, and other energy technologies installed in small quantities at scattered locations. This reflect CAISO’s recognition that “[t]he number and diversity of these resources are growing and represent an increasingly important part of the future grid.” However, CAISO has also recognized that system operators can only draw on DERs if they perform reliably, their operation is predictable and transparent, and their contributions are large enough to be economical both to their owners and the grid as a whole. While the aggregation of multiple DERs can support each of these conditions, providing for such aggregation will require adjustments to existing wholesale market rules. \u0000CAISO is not alone in recognizing the potential contributions to market performance of aggregated DERs, but it was the first wholesale market operator to begin exploring how to make the adjustments necessary to enable their participation. Similar programs for the aggregation of demand response have existed in markets operated by CAISO and other independent system operators and regional transmission organizations (ISO/RTOs) for several years. Those programs do not, however, allow energy exports to the bulk power grid. To address this limitation, CAISO adopted a new program, which allows DERs to provide energy and ancillary services to the grid. \u0000At the time of writing, CAISO’s program had attracted just four participants—DER providers or “DERPs”—none of which had yet begun operating in the energy or ancillary services markets. Meanwhile, the other ISO/RTOs and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC or the Commission) that oversees them are following CAISO into the fray. The FERC is considering requiring all ISO/RTOs to adopt their own programs for DER aggregation, which may be modeled on the one currently used by CAISO. Despite this, however, there has been no comprehensive review of how the CAISO program is operating and why it has attracted so few participants. This article is intended to fill that gap, examining CAISO’s DER program after its first year of operation.","PeriodicalId":359296,"journal":{"name":"The Energy Law Journal","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134497607","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
PRIVATE EMPIRE: EXXONMOBIL AND AMERICAN POWER By Steve Coll, Penguin Press 2012Readers of this Journal should be intrigued with Private Empire,1 which promises an inside look at ExxonMobil and how it acts like a sovereign ("a corporate state within the American State"),2 exercising its own "foreign policy" in 200 nations.3 Unfortunately, Private Empire does not deliver on its promise, breaks no new ground, nor produces evidence of corporate wrong-doing.4 Private Empire's nearly 700 pages and twenty-eight chapters are a wordy, anecdotal review of disparate incidents involving ExxonMobil in locales such as Alaska; Chad; Venezuela; Indonesia; Nigeria; and Jacksonville, Maryland.5This could have been a more compelling work, especially if it documented a rationale that international, leviathan corporations-energy or otherwise-deserve special government oversight. Private Empire doesn't prove its thesis that big is "bad" or offer a solution if there is an endemic problem with large, multinational corporations.6 Surprisingly, there is no discussion of the anti-trust laws or how ExxonMobil evolved from Standard Oil.7Stylistically, Private Empire tends to over-dramatize, assign pejorative meaning to terms like "K Street" and "private jets," provide unneeded information about minor players ("a descendant of an English cricket captain"),8 and offer irrelevant information such as: the Saudi Ambassador's home in Beverly Hills was next to Drew Barrymore's9 or a description of the Japanese synthesizing pearls in Qatar.10Private Empire is also littered with purple prose and non-sequiturs, to wit:"Alaska's storm-swept seas and icy glaciers might look forbidding, but at least they were situated in a nation that welcomed private capital."11Private Empire unsuccessfully searches for a villain. However, the best it comes up with is former CEO Lee Raymond, who, at worst, comes offas a curmudgeon who has a long friendship with Vice President Cheney. The author summarily concludes:"Lee Raymond would manage Exxon's global position after 1989 as a confident sovereign, a peer of the White House's rotating occupants. Raymond aligned Exxon with America but he was not always in sync[.]"12Private Empire makes no attempt to analyze the reasons for ExxonMobil's success. For example, in describing the company's lobbying in Washington, Private Empire glibly states:"ExxonMobil's strategy was not so much to dazzle or manipulate Washington as to manage and outlast it."13According to the author, "ExxonMobil did not want anything from the American government, but it did not want the government to do anything to the company, either."14 What does that "insight" mean?In conclusion, Private Empire may be on to something. Large, multinational corporations, particularly those that operate in essential industries, such as energy, and require large investments, may require special oversight by the government. …
{"title":"Private Empire: Exxonmobil and American Power","authors":"William A. Mogel","doi":"10.5860/choice.50-1560","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5860/choice.50-1560","url":null,"abstract":"PRIVATE EMPIRE: EXXONMOBIL AND AMERICAN POWER By Steve Coll, Penguin Press 2012Readers of this Journal should be intrigued with Private Empire,1 which promises an inside look at ExxonMobil and how it acts like a sovereign (\"a corporate state within the American State\"),2 exercising its own \"foreign policy\" in 200 nations.3 Unfortunately, Private Empire does not deliver on its promise, breaks no new ground, nor produces evidence of corporate wrong-doing.4 Private Empire's nearly 700 pages and twenty-eight chapters are a wordy, anecdotal review of disparate incidents involving ExxonMobil in locales such as Alaska; Chad; Venezuela; Indonesia; Nigeria; and Jacksonville, Maryland.5This could have been a more compelling work, especially if it documented a rationale that international, leviathan corporations-energy or otherwise-deserve special government oversight. Private Empire doesn't prove its thesis that big is \"bad\" or offer a solution if there is an endemic problem with large, multinational corporations.6 Surprisingly, there is no discussion of the anti-trust laws or how ExxonMobil evolved from Standard Oil.7Stylistically, Private Empire tends to over-dramatize, assign pejorative meaning to terms like \"K Street\" and \"private jets,\" provide unneeded information about minor players (\"a descendant of an English cricket captain\"),8 and offer irrelevant information such as: the Saudi Ambassador's home in Beverly Hills was next to Drew Barrymore's9 or a description of the Japanese synthesizing pearls in Qatar.10Private Empire is also littered with purple prose and non-sequiturs, to wit:\"Alaska's storm-swept seas and icy glaciers might look forbidding, but at least they were situated in a nation that welcomed private capital.\"11Private Empire unsuccessfully searches for a villain. However, the best it comes up with is former CEO Lee Raymond, who, at worst, comes offas a curmudgeon who has a long friendship with Vice President Cheney. The author summarily concludes:\"Lee Raymond would manage Exxon's global position after 1989 as a confident sovereign, a peer of the White House's rotating occupants. Raymond aligned Exxon with America but he was not always in sync[.]\"12Private Empire makes no attempt to analyze the reasons for ExxonMobil's success. For example, in describing the company's lobbying in Washington, Private Empire glibly states:\"ExxonMobil's strategy was not so much to dazzle or manipulate Washington as to manage and outlast it.\"13According to the author, \"ExxonMobil did not want anything from the American government, but it did not want the government to do anything to the company, either.\"14 What does that \"insight\" mean?In conclusion, Private Empire may be on to something. Large, multinational corporations, particularly those that operate in essential industries, such as energy, and require large investments, may require special oversight by the government. …","PeriodicalId":359296,"journal":{"name":"The Energy Law Journal","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116922029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Article depostied after permission was granted by publisher of Energy Law Journal, 02/01/2011.
2011年2月1日，《能源法》杂志出版，经许可后，本文已存存。
{"title":"LONG-TERM LIABILITY FOR CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE IN DEPLETED NORTH AMERICAN OIL AND GAS RESERVOIRS A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS","authors":"N. Nielson, A. Ingelson, Anne Kleffner","doi":"10.11575/PRISM/34003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11575/PRISM/34003","url":null,"abstract":"Article depostied after permission was granted by publisher of Energy Law Journal, 02/01/2011.","PeriodicalId":359296,"journal":{"name":"The Energy Law Journal","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134049301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
THE QUEST: ENERGY, SECURITY, AND THE REMAKING OF THE MODERN WORLD By Daniel Yergin, Penguin Press 2011 Daniel Yergin has done much for the reputation of oil as a central figure on the world stage over the course of the 20th Century. While others have chronicled the careers of those who developed and profited from the resource, Yergin gave the substance itself the starring role it deserves in his 1992 work, The Prize.1 Yergin won a Pulitzer for the book, and he deserved it for so well telling the story of oil's career as it rose from coal's less prominent cousin at the outset of 20th Century to its starring role as the world's predominant energy resource. Yergin's tale of oil's influence on world events includes the riveting back story leading to World War II, as Japanese naval strategists pressed for the attack on Pearl Harbor as a means of securing oil supplies in the Pacific. The Prize concluded with the rise of OPEC, and the profound resulting shift in the axis of world power, as developed nations adjusted to a new and relatively less self-sufficient reality. In The Quest,2 Yergin picks up the thread of the story in the latter part of the 20th Century, a time in which fossil fuels have shared the stage with other forms of energy more favored by certain policy makers, while the world reeled from the break-up of the Soviet Union and the emergence of newly independent oil-producing nations in the former Soviet Republics. These events have dramatically altered oil production scenarios and the calculus undertaken by those who look after the security of the nation's energy supplies. This is a story with many diverse threads, though many aspects of the tale have been told elsewhere and in more detail. Still, Yergin weaves together an effective narrative. Now nearly one year old, The Quest received generally good reviews from major outlets, including the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal, and indeed much is praiseworthy. The book is readable, and it provides a comprehensive survey of the broad sweep of issues involved in energy commerce and policy. Through it all, Yergin maintains a keen sense for the story-line and a journalist's eye for character-driven events. Yet, this is a frustrating book with respect to its two most important themes: the role of oil in the 21st Century and its analysis of the climate debate. As to oil, The Quest leaves one to accept on faith Yergin's conclusion that oil will remain relatively plentiful for the remainder of the 21st Century. As to the climate change debate, the book suffers from a failure to do more than scratch the surface of the science that is at the core of this critical issue. The book will also frustrate scholars. Its citations are sparse, and while there is a reasonably extensive bibliography, it is not at all clear where a good deal of the information comes from. With respect to oil's future, Yergin sees an endless horizon for the resource. Rejecting what he describes as the commonly-held view t
《追求:能源、安全与现代世界的重塑》丹尼尔·耶金著，企鹅出版社2011年出版，丹尼尔·耶金在20世纪的世界舞台上为石油的声誉做了很多贡献。虽然其他人已经记录了那些开发并从这种资源中获利的人的职业生涯，但尤金在他1992年的著作《大奖》中，把这种物质本身赋予了它应得的主角地位。尤金凭借这本书获得了普利策奖，他很好地讲述了石油的职业生涯，从20世纪初煤炭的不太出名的兄弟，到成为世界主要能源的主角，他当之无愧。Yergin关于石油对世界事件的影响的故事包括导致第二次世界大战的引人入胜的背景故事，当时日本海军战略家迫切要求袭击珍珠港，作为确保太平洋石油供应的一种手段。随着石油输出国组织的崛起，随着发达国家适应一个相对不那么自给自足的新现实，这个奖项结束了，世界权力轴心也随之发生了深刻的变化。在《探索》一书中，叶金从20世纪后半叶的故事线索出发，当时化石燃料与其他形式的能源共享舞台，受到某些政策制定者的青睐，而世界正因苏联解体和前苏联加盟共和国中新独立的石油生产国的出现而陷入困境。这些事件极大地改变了石油生产的前景和那些负责国家能源供应安全的人的计算。这是一个有许多不同线索的故事，尽管这个故事的许多方面已经在其他地方被更详细地讲述过。尽管如此，尤金还是编织了一个有效的故事。《The Quest》问世已近一年，从包括《纽约时报》(New York Times)和《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)在内的主要媒体那里得到了普遍好评，而且确实有很多值得称赞的地方。这本书是可读的，它提供了涉及能源商业和政策的广泛问题的全面调查。通过这一切，Yergin保持了对故事情节的敏锐感觉和记者对人物驱动事件的眼睛。然而，就其两个最重要的主题而言，这是一本令人沮丧的书:石油在21世纪的作用和对气候辩论的分析。至于石油，《探索》一书让人相信尤金的结论，即在21世纪余下的时间里，石油仍将相对丰富。至于气候变化的争论，这本书的缺点在于，它只是触及了这个关键问题的核心科学的表面。这本书也会让学者们感到沮丧。它的引用很少，虽然有一个相当广泛的参考书目，但它根本不清楚大量信息的来源。关于石油的未来，耶金认为这种资源的前景是无限的。Yergin不同意他所描述的普遍观点，即世界石油产量将很快达到峰值，随后会大幅下降，相反，他预测到2030年，供应将增加20%，然后是平稳期，之后是温和下降根据Yergin的说法:峰值可能是未来供应的最广为人知的图像。但还有另一种更合适的方式来描述供应过程:将其视为平台期。世界石油产量还会有几十年的进一步增长，然后才会趋于平缓，进入一个平稳期——也许在本世纪中叶的某个时候——届时将开始更加缓慢的下降他对“石油峰值”理论家不屑一顾，这些理论家认为石油产量将在近期或中期达到峰值，此后将大幅下降。他将这些理论家的历史追溯到1885年宾夕法尼亚州的一位州地质学家，这位地质学家显然担心丰富的石油是一种“正在消失的现象”。耶金接着发现，伍德罗·威尔逊、第三帝国陆军元帅隆美尔和前总统吉米·卡特等不同的历史人物都表达了这种非理性的恐惧，他将这种思维方式与罗马俱乐部联系起来，后者在其标志性著作《增长的极限》中预言了西方经济增长的自然极限。…
{"title":"The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World","authors":"J. Schneider","doi":"10.5860/choice.49-4584","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5860/choice.49-4584","url":null,"abstract":"THE QUEST: ENERGY, SECURITY, AND THE REMAKING OF THE MODERN WORLD By Daniel Yergin, Penguin Press 2011 Daniel Yergin has done much for the reputation of oil as a central figure on the world stage over the course of the 20th Century. While others have chronicled the careers of those who developed and profited from the resource, Yergin gave the substance itself the starring role it deserves in his 1992 work, The Prize.1 Yergin won a Pulitzer for the book, and he deserved it for so well telling the story of oil's career as it rose from coal's less prominent cousin at the outset of 20th Century to its starring role as the world's predominant energy resource. Yergin's tale of oil's influence on world events includes the riveting back story leading to World War II, as Japanese naval strategists pressed for the attack on Pearl Harbor as a means of securing oil supplies in the Pacific. The Prize concluded with the rise of OPEC, and the profound resulting shift in the axis of world power, as developed nations adjusted to a new and relatively less self-sufficient reality. In The Quest,2 Yergin picks up the thread of the story in the latter part of the 20th Century, a time in which fossil fuels have shared the stage with other forms of energy more favored by certain policy makers, while the world reeled from the break-up of the Soviet Union and the emergence of newly independent oil-producing nations in the former Soviet Republics. These events have dramatically altered oil production scenarios and the calculus undertaken by those who look after the security of the nation's energy supplies. This is a story with many diverse threads, though many aspects of the tale have been told elsewhere and in more detail. Still, Yergin weaves together an effective narrative. Now nearly one year old, The Quest received generally good reviews from major outlets, including the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal, and indeed much is praiseworthy. The book is readable, and it provides a comprehensive survey of the broad sweep of issues involved in energy commerce and policy. Through it all, Yergin maintains a keen sense for the story-line and a journalist's eye for character-driven events. Yet, this is a frustrating book with respect to its two most important themes: the role of oil in the 21st Century and its analysis of the climate debate. As to oil, The Quest leaves one to accept on faith Yergin's conclusion that oil will remain relatively plentiful for the remainder of the 21st Century. As to the climate change debate, the book suffers from a failure to do more than scratch the surface of the science that is at the core of this critical issue. The book will also frustrate scholars. Its citations are sparse, and while there is a reasonably extensive bibliography, it is not at all clear where a good deal of the information comes from. With respect to oil's future, Yergin sees an endless horizon for the resource. Rejecting what he describes as the commonly-held view t","PeriodicalId":359296,"journal":{"name":"The Energy Law Journal","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128099083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
THE BET: PAUL EHRLICH, JULIAN SIMON, AND OUR GAMBLE OVER EARTH'S FUTUREBy Paul Sabin, Yale University Press 2013It seems a matter of common sense that infinite resources do not exist, and we should, therefore, use our resources carefully. But it is a mistake to understate the impact of human ingenuity and market economics on the demand for resources we are inclined to think of as essential. This more complex truth was well understood by the Saudi Arabian oil minister, Sheikh Zaki Yamani, who famously stated that "[the] Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil."1 The story of this more complex truth about resource scarcity and its relationship to the modern environmental movement is well told by Paul Sabin in The Bet.2 The Bet has lessons for today's debate over climate change and should serve as a cautionary tale for activists on either side.The Bet recounts the rivalry between Paul Ehrlich, the biologist who wrote The Population Bomb 3 in 1968, and Julian Simon, an economist who wrote The Ultimate Resource4 in 1981. Ehrlich warned of the dangers of overpopulation and the destruction of the planet while Simon celebrated population growth and the ingenuity that enables humans to adapt to changing circumstances. Ehrlich relied on the simple logic that resources are finite, claiming that increased population would lead to mass starvation. Notwithstanding his doomsday message, he was immensely popular and appeared on The Tonight Show with Johnny Carson more than twenty times during the 1970s.5 Tempering that image, Sabin points out that early in his career Ehrlich and his allies called for the United States to refuse to send food to certain famine stricken countries because they had failed to adopt population control policies.6 Further, Ehrlich struggled to completely disassociate his group, Zero Population Growth, from the groups that promoted eugenics.7 Nonetheless, while Ehrlich's popularity soared, Simon liked to joke he would be lucky if five people showed up to hear his ideas about how human beings and their innovative abilities are our ultimate resource.8But Simon persisted, and in 1981 wrote an article in Social Science Quarterly that, referring to Ehrlich, began with the question: "How often does a prophet have to be wrong before we no longer believe that he or she is a true prophet?"9 He then challenged Ehrlich to a bet: Ehrlich could choose any five metals and Simon would bet him that those metals would be less expensive in ten years then they were at that time.10 "Ehrlich took the bait," saying that he would accept Simon's "'astonishing offer before other greedy people jump in.'"11 Ehrlich consulted with two of his scientist friends and chose five: chromium, copper, nickel, tin, and tungsten.12 They seemed like good choices as each had a critical role and its price had increased significantly during the 1970s.13Ten years later the world's population had increased by 800 millio
{"title":"The Bet: Paul Ehrlich, Julian Simon, and Our Gamble over Earth's Future","authors":"Richard B. Miller","doi":"10.5860/choice.51-3963","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5860/choice.51-3963","url":null,"abstract":"THE BET: PAUL EHRLICH, JULIAN SIMON, AND OUR GAMBLE OVER EARTH'S FUTUREBy Paul Sabin, Yale University Press 2013It seems a matter of common sense that infinite resources do not exist, and we should, therefore, use our resources carefully. But it is a mistake to understate the impact of human ingenuity and market economics on the demand for resources we are inclined to think of as essential. This more complex truth was well understood by the Saudi Arabian oil minister, Sheikh Zaki Yamani, who famously stated that \"[the] Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil.\"1 The story of this more complex truth about resource scarcity and its relationship to the modern environmental movement is well told by Paul Sabin in The Bet.2 The Bet has lessons for today's debate over climate change and should serve as a cautionary tale for activists on either side.The Bet recounts the rivalry between Paul Ehrlich, the biologist who wrote The Population Bomb 3 in 1968, and Julian Simon, an economist who wrote The Ultimate Resource4 in 1981. Ehrlich warned of the dangers of overpopulation and the destruction of the planet while Simon celebrated population growth and the ingenuity that enables humans to adapt to changing circumstances. Ehrlich relied on the simple logic that resources are finite, claiming that increased population would lead to mass starvation. Notwithstanding his doomsday message, he was immensely popular and appeared on The Tonight Show with Johnny Carson more than twenty times during the 1970s.5 Tempering that image, Sabin points out that early in his career Ehrlich and his allies called for the United States to refuse to send food to certain famine stricken countries because they had failed to adopt population control policies.6 Further, Ehrlich struggled to completely disassociate his group, Zero Population Growth, from the groups that promoted eugenics.7 Nonetheless, while Ehrlich's popularity soared, Simon liked to joke he would be lucky if five people showed up to hear his ideas about how human beings and their innovative abilities are our ultimate resource.8But Simon persisted, and in 1981 wrote an article in Social Science Quarterly that, referring to Ehrlich, began with the question: \"How often does a prophet have to be wrong before we no longer believe that he or she is a true prophet?\"9 He then challenged Ehrlich to a bet: Ehrlich could choose any five metals and Simon would bet him that those metals would be less expensive in ten years then they were at that time.10 \"Ehrlich took the bait,\" saying that he would accept Simon's \"'astonishing offer before other greedy people jump in.'\"11 Ehrlich consulted with two of his scientist friends and chose five: chromium, copper, nickel, tin, and tungsten.12 They seemed like good choices as each had a critical role and its price had increased significantly during the 1970s.13Ten years later the world's population had increased by 800 millio","PeriodicalId":359296,"journal":{"name":"The Energy Law Journal","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125602268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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