Pub Date : 2023-12-17DOI: 10.46281/amfbr.v8i1.2149
In their efforts to stabilize the price level, central banks often rely on the growth rate in the stock of money as an intermediate target variable. Usually, the premise underlying this approach is that the income velocity of money, defined as the ratio of nominal GDP to the stock of money, either randomly fluctuates around a constant mean or can, at least, be predicted with sufficient accuracy. The purpose of this paper is to put this assumption to the test. We do so by applying a first-order autoregressive model, supplemented by a set of lagged exogenous regressors, to the quarterly changes in velocity in the U.S. Our results confirm previous findings that dynamic dependencies exist between changes in the income velocity of money over successive periods of time. They also support the assertion that rising long-term interest rates lower the demand for money. Perhaps most importantly, however, we find that all else being equal, the degree of financialization in the economy, measured by the ratio of financial assets to GDP, has a positive and statistically significant effect on velocity. A possible explanation of this finding is the increasing availability of tradable, non-monetary financial instruments that are close substitutes for bank deposits.
中央银行在稳定价格水平的过程中，往往依靠货币存量的增长率作为中间目标变量。通常，这种方法的前提是货币收入速度（定义为名义 GDP 与货币存量的比率）要么围绕一个恒定的平均值随机波动，要么至少可以足够准确地预测。本文旨在检验这一假设。我们将一阶自回归模型应用于美国的季度货币流通速度变化，并辅以一组滞后的外生回归因子。我们的研究结果证实了之前的发现，即连续时期的货币收入速度变化之间存在动态依赖关系。这些结果还支持了长期利率上升会降低货币需求的论断。然而，也许最重要的是，我们发现在其他条件相同的情况下，经济的金融化程度（以金融资产占国内生产总值的比例来衡量）对货币流通速度有积极的、统计上显著的影响。对这一发现的一个可能解释是，可交易的非货币金融工具越来越多，而这些金融工具是银行存款的近似替代品。
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Pub Date : 2023-08-27DOI: 10.46281/amfbr.v8i1.2071
Ejem Chukwu
This study evaluated the argument that the capital market is efficient such that all information from both the past, present, and unpublished have already been reflected in the market price of security as a guide for investors in the market and that the behavior of the same investors could affect the performance of the market. To address the above concern, the researcher employed various suitable final metric tools such as the Normality/Random Walk test, Variance ratio test, EGARCH models, etc., to analyze the daily historical data from prominent capital markets, each from all the continents around the world. From the results of these tools employed, none of the markets under study follow the random walk theory within the scope of the study. The results of EGARCH and volatility clustering tests also revealed that all the countries under study exhibited the property of stock returns distribution called volatility clustering or volatility pooling, a kind of heteroscedasticity, suggesting the nonconformity of the random walk theory. The failure of the various results to corroborate the random walk theory shows that investors are rational and unpredictable. These results have rightly positioned the behavioral finance theory as a veritable tool that can guide economic agents on capital market investment decisions. That means the behavior of investors makes share prices deviate from the economic fundamentals or assumptions. Considering the above findings, the researcher boldly advocates for a paradigm shift to behavioral finance theory, where emotions and psychology or mindsets of investors influence the investment decision-making process and financial markets, hence a veritable guide for decisions on stock market investments. Therefore, the researcher suggested that emotional and psychological checks be carried out on all stock market investors, mainly when an innovation or new policy is promulgated.
{"title":"SOLIDITY AND IMMUTABILITY OF BEHAVIOURAL FINANCE THEORY IN CAPITAL MARKET INVESTMENT: A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE","authors":"Ejem Chukwu","doi":"10.46281/amfbr.v8i1.2071","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46281/amfbr.v8i1.2071","url":null,"abstract":"This study evaluated the argument that the capital market is efficient such that all information from both the past, present, and unpublished have already been reflected in the market price of security as a guide for investors in the market and that the behavior of the same investors could affect the performance of the market. To address the above concern, the researcher employed various suitable final metric tools such as the Normality/Random Walk test, Variance ratio test, EGARCH models, etc., to analyze the daily historical data from prominent capital markets, each from all the continents around the world. From the results of these tools employed, none of the markets under study follow the random walk theory within the scope of the study. The results of EGARCH and volatility clustering tests also revealed that all the countries under study exhibited the property of stock returns distribution called volatility clustering or volatility pooling, a kind of heteroscedasticity, suggesting the nonconformity of the random walk theory. The failure of the various results to corroborate the random walk theory shows that investors are rational and unpredictable. These results have rightly positioned the behavioral finance theory as a veritable tool that can guide economic agents on capital market investment decisions. That means the behavior of investors makes share prices deviate from the economic fundamentals or assumptions. Considering the above findings, the researcher boldly advocates for a paradigm shift to behavioral finance theory, where emotions and psychology or mindsets of investors influence the investment decision-making process and financial markets, hence a veritable guide for decisions on stock market investments. Therefore, the researcher suggested that emotional and psychological checks be carried out on all stock market investors, mainly when an innovation or new policy is promulgated.","PeriodicalId":371589,"journal":{"name":"American Finance & Banking Review","volume":"29 4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131063134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-09-04DOI: 10.46281/amfbr.v7i1.1793
Despite this, there have been conducted outnumber of studies on the relationship between trade and unemployment around the world. The purpose of this study is to investigate the nexus between trade and unemployment, and whether trade creates or destroys jobs in the context of Afghanistan. To answer this question, the data was gathered from various sources including the World Bank, and the National Statistics and Information Authority of Afghanistan, from 1990 to 2018. Using ADF (Augmented Dicky Fuller) stationarity test, ARDL Bound test, and causality test. The empirical evidence showed only short-run consequences in one variable which is Gross Domestic Products Per Capita. Further, the study employed diagnostic and stability tests to understand the fitness of the model. Hence, this study surely answers the questions and shows that there is no link between trade and unemployment. Finally, the study evinced only the influence of GDP Per Capita on unemployment. Besides, there is a unilateral causality running from GDP Per Capita toward Unemployment and also the study analyzed that GDP Per Capita has a negative and significant impact on Unemployment in the short run. Eventually, the study suggests that the government needs to reform policy in regard to tackling unemployment through domestic investment.
{"title":"THE NEXUS OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF AFGHANISTAN","authors":"","doi":"10.46281/amfbr.v7i1.1793","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.46281/amfbr.v7i1.1793","url":null,"abstract":"Despite this, there have been conducted outnumber of studies on the relationship between trade and unemployment around the world. The purpose of this study is to investigate the nexus between trade and unemployment, and whether trade creates or destroys jobs in the context of Afghanistan. To answer this question, the data was gathered from various sources including the World Bank, and the National Statistics and Information Authority of Afghanistan, from 1990 to 2018. Using ADF (Augmented Dicky Fuller) stationarity test, ARDL Bound test, and causality test. The empirical evidence showed only short-run consequences in one variable which is Gross Domestic Products Per Capita. Further, the study employed diagnostic and stability tests to understand the fitness of the model. Hence, this study surely answers the questions and shows that there is no link between trade and unemployment. Finally, the study evinced only the influence of GDP Per Capita on unemployment. Besides, there is a unilateral causality running from GDP Per Capita toward Unemployment and also the study analyzed that GDP Per Capita has a negative and significant impact on Unemployment in the short run. Eventually, the study suggests that the government needs to reform policy in regard to tackling unemployment through domestic investment.","PeriodicalId":371589,"journal":{"name":"American Finance & Banking Review","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129987445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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