We provide an updated and comprehensive review of China's financial system and explore the possible challenges in the future. First, China's financial system has been dominated by a large banking sector, which has played an important role in financing the real economy in the past decades. With the interest rate liberalization, the profitability of banks will go down and the competition in the banking sector will become stronger in the future. Moreover, this sector still needs to meet the challenge to reduce the amount of nonperforming loans. Second, the role of the stock market in allocating resources in the economy has been limited and ineffective. However, with the rapid growth of the markets and the introduction of more financial products, financial markets are expected to play a more important role in the economy going forward. Third, a nonstandard sector that consists of alternative financing channels is the most successful part of the financial system in terms of supporting the growth in the past decades. The co-existence of this sector with banks and markets can continue to support the growth of private and local government firms. Finally, in order to sustain the economic growth in China, policies need to reduce the likelihood of damaging financial crises, including a banking sector crisis, a real estate or stock market crash, and a "twin crisis" in the currency market and banking sector.
{"title":"China's Financial System: Growth and Risk","authors":"Franklin Allen, Jun Qian, Xian Gu","doi":"10.1561/0500000029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1561/0500000029","url":null,"abstract":"We provide an updated and comprehensive review of China's financial system and explore the possible challenges in the future. First, China's financial system has been dominated by a large banking sector, which has played an important role in financing the real economy in the past decades. With the interest rate liberalization, the profitability of banks will go down and the competition in the banking sector will become stronger in the future. Moreover, this sector still needs to meet the challenge to reduce the amount of nonperforming loans. Second, the role of the stock market in allocating resources in the economy has been limited and ineffective. However, with the rapid growth of the markets and the introduction of more financial products, financial markets are expected to play a more important role in the economy going forward. Third, a nonstandard sector that consists of alternative financing channels is the most successful part of the financial system in terms of supporting the growth in the past decades. The co-existence of this sector with banks and markets can continue to support the growth of private and local government firms. Finally, in order to sustain the economic growth in China, policies need to reduce the likelihood of damaging financial crises, including a banking sector crisis, a real estate or stock market crash, and a \"twin crisis\" in the currency market and banking sector.","PeriodicalId":38595,"journal":{"name":"Foundations and Trends in Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1561/0500000029","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67069117","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) asserts that, at all times, the price of a security reflects all available information about its fundamental value. The implication of the EMH for investors is that, to the extent that speculative trading is costly, speculation must be a loser's game. Hence, under the EMH, a passive strategy is bound eventually to beat a strategy that uses active management, where active management is characterized as trading that seeks to exploit mispriced assets relative to a risk-adjusted benchmark. The EMH has been refined over the past several decades to reflect the realism of the marketplace, including costly information, transactions costs, financing, agency costs, and other real-world frictions. The most recent expressions of the EMH thus allow a role for arbitrageurs in the market who may profit from their comparative advantages. These advantages may include specialized knowledge, lower trading costs, low management fees or agency costs, and a financing structure that allows the arbitrageur to undertake trades with long verification periods. The actions of these arbitrageurs cause liquid securities markets to be generally fairly efficient with respect to information, despite some notable anomalies.
{"title":"The Efficient Market Theory and Evidence: Implications for Active Investment Management","authors":"Andrew Ang, W. Goetzmann, S. Schaefer","doi":"10.1561/0500000034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1561/0500000034","url":null,"abstract":"The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) asserts that, at all times, the price of a security reflects all available information about its fundamental value. The implication of the EMH for investors is that, to the extent that speculative trading is costly, speculation must be a loser's game. Hence, under the EMH, a passive strategy is bound eventually to beat a strategy that uses active management, where active management is characterized as trading that seeks to exploit mispriced assets relative to a risk-adjusted benchmark. The EMH has been refined over the past several decades to reflect the realism of the marketplace, including costly information, transactions costs, financing, agency costs, and other real-world frictions. The most recent expressions of the EMH thus allow a role for arbitrageurs in the market who may profit from their comparative advantages. These advantages may include specialized knowledge, lower trading costs, low management fees or agency costs, and a financing structure that allows the arbitrageur to undertake trades with long verification periods. The actions of these arbitrageurs cause liquid securities markets to be generally fairly efficient with respect to information, despite some notable anomalies.","PeriodicalId":38595,"journal":{"name":"Foundations and Trends in Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80482392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper aims to assess the technical efficiency of Japanese trust banks by using the stochastic distance function approach, which is suitable for analyzing complex trust banks but has never applied for Japanese trust banks. Although the trust banking industry has been one of the most restricted financial sectors in Japan, it has recently been deregulated, particularly in terms of entry restrictions. Most noteworthy was the approval of the entry of the foreign-owned trust banks that represented the financial liberalization at that time. The traditional theory expects that allowing new entry makes market more competitive and therefore players become more efficient to survive. Therefore, it is interesting to investigate whether the liberalization made Japanese banks more efficient. The results indicate that the traditional domestic trust banks possess a technical efficiency superior to new entrants (i.e., foreign-owned trust banks). However, we failed to find an apparent tendency for trust banks to be more efficient now than in the pre-liberalization period.
{"title":"Efficiency in the Japanese Trust Banking Industry: A Stochastic Distance Function Approach","authors":"Nobuyoshi Yamori, Kozo Harimaya","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1570445","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1570445","url":null,"abstract":"This paper aims to assess the technical efficiency of Japanese trust banks by using the stochastic distance function approach, which is suitable for analyzing complex trust banks but has never applied for Japanese trust banks. Although the trust banking industry has been one of the most restricted financial sectors in Japan, it has recently been deregulated, particularly in terms of entry restrictions. Most noteworthy was the approval of the entry of the foreign-owned trust banks that represented the financial liberalization at that time. The traditional theory expects that allowing new entry makes market more competitive and therefore players become more efficient to survive. Therefore, it is interesting to investigate whether the liberalization made Japanese banks more efficient. The results indicate that the traditional domestic trust banks possess a technical efficiency superior to new entrants (i.e., foreign-owned trust banks). However, we failed to find an apparent tendency for trust banks to be more efficient now than in the pre-liberalization period.","PeriodicalId":38595,"journal":{"name":"Foundations and Trends in Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91290090","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Valuation lies at the heart of much of what we do in finance, whether it is the study of market efficiency and questions about corporate governance or the comparison of different investment decision rules in capital budgeting. In this paper, we consider the theory and evidence on valuation approaches. We begin by surveying the literature on discounted cash flow valuation models, ranging from the first mentions of the dividend discount model to value stocks to the use of excess return models in more recent years. In the second part of the paper, we examine relative valuation models and, in particular, the use of multiples and comparables in valuation and evaluate whether relative valuation models yield more or less precise estimates of value than discounted cash flow models. In the final part of the paper, we set the stage for further research in valuation by noting the estimation challenges we face as companies globalize and become exposed to risk in multiple countries.
{"title":"Valuation Approaches and Metrics: A Survey of the Theory and Evidence","authors":"A. Damodaran","doi":"10.1561/0500000013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1561/0500000013","url":null,"abstract":"Valuation lies at the heart of much of what we do in finance, whether it is the study of market efficiency and questions about corporate governance or the comparison of different investment decision rules in capital budgeting. In this paper, we consider the theory and evidence on valuation approaches. We begin by surveying the literature on discounted cash flow valuation models, ranging from the first mentions of the dividend discount model to value stocks to the use of excess return models in more recent years. In the second part of the paper, we examine relative valuation models and, in particular, the use of multiples and comparables in valuation and evaluate whether relative valuation models yield more or less precise estimates of value than discounted cash flow models. In the final part of the paper, we set the stage for further research in valuation by noting the estimation challenges we face as companies globalize and become exposed to risk in multiple countries.","PeriodicalId":38595,"journal":{"name":"Foundations and Trends in Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74190672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1900-01-01DOI: 10.1002/9781119209164.ch7
V. Agarwal, Narayan Naik
Hedge Funds summarizes the academic research on hedge funds and commodity trading advisors. The hedge fund industry has grown tremendously over the recent years. According to some industry estimates, hedge funds have increased from USD 39 million in 1990 to about USD 972 million in 2004 and the total number of hedge funds has gone up from 610 to 7,436 over the same period. At the same time, hedge fund strategies have changed significantly. In 1990 the macro strategy dominated the industry while in 2004 the equity hedge strategy had the largest share of the market. There has also been a shift in the type of investor in hedge funds. In the early 1990s the typical investor was a high net-worth individual investor, today the typical investor is an institutional investor. Thus, the hedge fund market has not only grown tremendously, but the nature of the market has changed. Despite the enormous growth of this industry, there is limited information available on hedge funds. As a result, there is a need for rigorous research from both the investors’ and regulators’ point of view. Investors need research to better understand their investment and their risk exposure. This research also helps investors recognize the extent of diversification benefits hedge funds offer in combination with investments in traditional asset classes, such as stocks and bonds. Regulators can use this research to identify situations where regulation may be needed to protect investors’ interests and to understand the impact hedge funds trading strategies have on the stability of the financial markets. The first part of Hedge Funds summarizes hedge fund performance, including comparisons of risk-return characteristics of hedge funds with those of mutual funds, factors driving hedge fund returns, and persistence in hedge fund performance. The second part reviews research regarding the unique contractual features and characteristics of hedge funds and their influence on the risk-return trade offs. The third part reviews the role of hedge funds in a portfolio including the extent of diversification benefits and limitations of standard mean-variance framework for asset allocation. Finally, the authors summarize the research on the biases in hedge fund databases.
{"title":"Hedge Funds","authors":"V. Agarwal, Narayan Naik","doi":"10.1002/9781119209164.ch7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119209164.ch7","url":null,"abstract":"Hedge Funds summarizes the academic research on hedge funds and commodity trading advisors. The hedge fund industry has grown tremendously over the recent years. According to some industry estimates, hedge funds have increased from USD 39 million in 1990 to about USD 972 million in 2004 and the total number of hedge funds has gone up from 610 to 7,436 over the same period. At the same time, hedge fund strategies have changed significantly. In 1990 the macro strategy dominated the industry while in 2004 the equity hedge strategy had the largest share of the market. There has also been a shift in the type of investor in hedge funds. In the early 1990s the typical investor was a high net-worth individual investor, today the typical investor is an institutional investor. Thus, the hedge fund market has not only grown tremendously, but the nature of the market has changed. Despite the enormous growth of this industry, there is limited information available on hedge funds. As a result, there is a need for rigorous research from both the investors’ and regulators’ point of view. Investors need research to better understand their investment and their risk exposure. This research also helps investors recognize the extent of diversification benefits hedge funds offer in combination with investments in traditional asset classes, such as stocks and bonds. Regulators can use this research to identify situations where regulation may be needed to protect investors’ interests and to understand the impact hedge funds trading strategies have on the stability of the financial markets. The first part of Hedge Funds summarizes hedge fund performance, including comparisons of risk-return characteristics of hedge funds with those of mutual funds, factors driving hedge fund returns, and persistence in hedge fund performance. The second part reviews research regarding the unique contractual features and characteristics of hedge funds and their influence on the risk-return trade offs. The third part reviews the role of hedge funds in a portfolio including the extent of diversification benefits and limitations of standard mean-variance framework for asset allocation. Finally, the authors summarize the research on the biases in hedge fund databases.","PeriodicalId":38595,"journal":{"name":"Foundations and Trends in Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85077198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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