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The Effect of Bank Loan Dependence on Management and Analyst Forecasts 银行贷款依赖对管理和分析师预测的影响
Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.11640/TJAR.9.2019.01
Saori Nara, Mikiharu Noma
This paper investigates whether and how dependence on bank loans affects management and analyst forecasts in Japan, where indirect finance has played an important role in financial arrangements for many years. We study 4,681 firm-year observations listed on the Japanese equity market from 2001 to 2011, and we show the following results. First, the dependence on bank loans increases management forecast errors. Second, the dependence on bank loans increases analyst forecast errors and dispersions but decreases analyst coverage. Third, dependence on bank loans decreases the value relevance of management and analyst forecasts. These empirical results show that disclosure and information environment are not good for firms that depend on bank loans. Furthermore, management and analyst forecasts are less incorporated in stock prices because investors rely on bank monitoring and do not utilize firms’ public disclosures or other information, such as analyst forecasts, for those who depend on bank loan. Analyst coverage, analyst forecast accuracy, and forecast agreement are all lower for firms having long term-established relationships with banks in Japan. By contrast, our research contributes two things. First, we show that disclosure of firms that are dependent on bank loans are inadequate. More specifically, management forecasts of firms that are dependent on bank loans are less accurate. Second, we reveal that management and analyst forecasts are less incorporated in stock prices in firms that are reliant on bank loans.
本文调查了对银行贷款的依赖是否以及如何影响日本的管理和分析师预测,日本的间接融资多年来在财务安排中发挥了重要作用。我们研究了从2001年到2011年在日本股票市场上市的4681家公司的年度观察结果,我们显示了以下结果。首先,对银行贷款的依赖增加了管理层预测的误差。其次,对银行贷款的依赖增加了分析师预测的误差和分散性,但降低了分析师的覆盖范围。第三,对银行贷款的依赖降低了管理层和分析师预测的价值相关性。这些实证结果表明,依赖银行贷款的企业的信息披露和信息环境不佳。此外,管理层和分析师的预测很少被纳入股价,因为投资者依赖银行监控,而不利用公司的公开披露或其他信息,如分析师的预测,对于那些依赖银行贷款的人来说。与日本银行有长期合作关系的公司的分析师覆盖率、分析师预测准确性和预测一致性都较低。相比之下,我们的研究贡献了两点。首先,我们发现依赖银行贷款的公司信息披露不足。更具体地说,依赖银行贷款的公司的管理层预测不太准确。其次,我们发现,在依赖银行贷款的公司中,管理层和分析师的预测较少被纳入股价。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of Managerial Ability in the Japanese Setting 日本环境下的管理能力评价
Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2018-12-31 DOI: 10.11640/TJAR.8.2018.01
Hsihui Chang, Souhei Ishida, Takuma Kochiyama
Following Demerjian, Lev, and McVay (2012), we quantify managerial ability using a sample of Japanese listed firms for the period 2005-2015. Consistent with their findings, we find that the estimated managerial ability is strongly correlated with manager fixed effects. Further, we find that the managerial ability is economically and significantly associated with the stock price reactions to CEO turnovers and changes in future return on assets following CEO turnovers. Our results are robust to alternative specifi ations of DEA models and inputs used in the estimation of firm efficiency. We contribute to the literature by generalizing the validity of the managerial ability introduced by Demerjian, Lev, and McVay (2012) to a non-US setting.
继Demerjian、Lev和McVay(2012)之后,我们使用2005-2015年期间的日本上市公司样本来量化管理能力。与他们的研究结果一致,我们发现估计的管理能力与管理者固定效应密切相关。此外,我们发现,管理能力在经济上与股价对CEO离职的反应以及CEO离职后未来资产回报率的变化显著相关。我们的结果对DEA模型的替代规范和用于估计企业效率的输入是稳健的。我们通过将Demerjian、Lev和McVay(2012)引入的管理能力的有效性推广到非美国环境来为文献做出贡献。
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引用次数: 4
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Japanese Accounting Review
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