Oil dependence remains a potentially serious economic and strategic problem for the United States. This report updates previous estimates of the costs of oil dependence to the U.S. economy and introduces several methodological enhancements. Estimates of the costs to the U.S. economy of the oil market upheavals of the last 30 years are in the vicinity of $7 trillion, present value 1998 dollars, about as large as the sum total of payments on the national debt over the same period. Simply adding up historical costs in 1998 dollars without converting to present value results in a Base Case cost estimate of $3.4 trillion. Sensitivity analysis indicates that cost estimates are sensitive to key parameters. A lower bound estimate of $1.7 trillion and an upper bound of $7.1 trillion (not present value) indicate that the costs of oil dependence have been large under almost any plausible set of assumptions. These cost estimates do not include military, strategic or political costs associated with U.S. and world dependence on oil imports.
{"title":"Costs of Oil Dependence: A 2000 Update","authors":"D. Greene, N. I. Tishchishyna","doi":"10.2172/861710","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2172/861710","url":null,"abstract":"Oil dependence remains a potentially serious economic and strategic problem for the United States. This report updates previous estimates of the costs of oil dependence to the U.S. economy and introduces several methodological enhancements. Estimates of the costs to the U.S. economy of the oil market upheavals of the last 30 years are in the vicinity of $7 trillion, present value 1998 dollars, about as large as the sum total of payments on the national debt over the same period. Simply adding up historical costs in 1998 dollars without converting to present value results in a Base Case cost estimate of $3.4 trillion. Sensitivity analysis indicates that cost estimates are sensitive to key parameters. A lower bound estimate of $1.7 trillion and an upper bound of $7.1 trillion (not present value) indicate that the costs of oil dependence have been large under almost any plausible set of assumptions. These cost estimates do not include military, strategic or political costs associated with U.S. and world dependence on oil imports.","PeriodicalId":412713,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Quarterly","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117064583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The intercontinental transport network in much of the world dead-ends outside the major cities, and more than half of the world's people are stranded in rural hinterlands that are disconnected from the economic mainstream. While the mobile countries are affluent, immobility and poverty characterize large numbers of countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The question for world leaders and transport policy-makers is how these needs can be anticipated and appropriate efforts undertaken to hasten completion of the transportation system of the earth on which the world's development is so critically dependent.
{"title":"TRANSPORTATION AND WORLD DEVELOPMENT","authors":"W. Owen","doi":"10.2307/144076","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/144076","url":null,"abstract":"The intercontinental transport network in much of the world dead-ends outside the major cities, and more than half of the world's people are stranded in rural hinterlands that are disconnected from the economic mainstream. While the mobile countries are affluent, immobility and poverty characterize large numbers of countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The question for world leaders and transport policy-makers is how these needs can be anticipated and appropriate efforts undertaken to hasten completion of the transportation system of the earth on which the world's development is so critically dependent.","PeriodicalId":412713,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Quarterly","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1985-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130158642","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1900-01-01DOI: 10.1007/0-387-23260-5_22
J. Sussman
{"title":"TRANSITIONS IN THE WORLD OF TRANSPORTATION: A SYSTEMS VIEW","authors":"J. Sussman","doi":"10.1007/0-387-23260-5_22","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/0-387-23260-5_22","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":412713,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Quarterly","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125320843","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Most states use accident, traffic-volume, or delay data as guidelines for installing left-turn lanes. Computer simulation of these data compares statistics of intersections with left-turn lanes to those without. The study found that special lanes always lead to improvement in traffic flow, but noted that all intersections cannot accommodate a special lane. The recommendations specify the accident rate, critical-volume determination, and the rate of traffice conflicts which warrant a separate left-turn lane. 10 references, 6 figures, 4 tables. (DCK)
{"title":"WARRANTS FOR LEFT-TURN LANES","authors":"K. Agent","doi":"10.13023/KTC.RR.1982.19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.13023/KTC.RR.1982.19","url":null,"abstract":"Most states use accident, traffic-volume, or delay data as guidelines for installing left-turn lanes. Computer simulation of these data compares statistics of intersections with left-turn lanes to those without. The study found that special lanes always lead to improvement in traffic flow, but noted that all intersections cannot accommodate a special lane. The recommendations specify the accident rate, critical-volume determination, and the rate of traffice conflicts which warrant a separate left-turn lane. 10 references, 6 figures, 4 tables. (DCK)","PeriodicalId":412713,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Quarterly","volume":"107 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133390115","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"ITS: A SHORT HISTORY AND PERSPECTIVE ON THE FUTURE","authors":"J. Sussman","doi":"10.1007/0-387-23260-5_1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/0-387-23260-5_1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":412713,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Quarterly","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129044990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"THE NEW TRANSPORTATION FACULTY: THE EVOLUTION TO ENGINEERING SYSTEMS","authors":"J. Sussman","doi":"10.1007/0-387-23260-5_6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/0-387-23260-5_6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":412713,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Quarterly","volume":"143 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126916114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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