Pub Date : 2023-06-22DOI: 10.60165/metusd.v50i1.1288
Erol Taymaz, Ebru Voyvoda
Current account deficit, which has reached to 48.8 billion dollars, or 5.3 % of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022, has been one of the main indicators of “fragility” for the Turkish economy. Although Turkish economy has long been identified with its dependency on foreign resources to sustain economic growth, the post-2000 period has also marked a structural change in the relationship between foreign capital flows and the current account balance. Before the 1980s, a growth cycle through increased domestic demand for the Turkish economy, traditionally increased import demand, led to current account deficit and created the need for foreign savings. Yet, in the aftermath of the liberalization of the current and financial accounts, the direction of the causality has been reversed. Here, autonomous flows of (short-term) foreign capital have been the main drivers of the growth cycles of the economy, hence the dynamics of the current account balance. The aim of this study is to assess the structural determinants of the now chronic and serious current account deficit of the Turkish economy. To this end, we first look into the main drivers of this structural change in the relationship between the growth, foreign capital flows and current account balance. Next, we discuss the contribution of structural change, investment dynamics and de-industrialization to the problem of current account deficit of the economy.
{"title":"Türkiye ekonomisinde dış ticaret, cari denge ve yapısal dönüşüm","authors":"Erol Taymaz, Ebru Voyvoda","doi":"10.60165/metusd.v50i1.1288","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.60165/metusd.v50i1.1288","url":null,"abstract":"Current account deficit, which has reached to 48.8 billion dollars, or 5.3 % of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022, has been one of the main indicators of “fragility” for the Turkish economy. Although Turkish economy has long been identified with its dependency on foreign resources to sustain economic growth, the post-2000 period has also marked a structural change in the relationship between foreign capital flows and the current account balance. Before the 1980s, a growth cycle through increased domestic demand for the Turkish economy, traditionally increased import demand, led to current account deficit and created the need for foreign savings. Yet, in the aftermath of the liberalization of the current and financial accounts, the direction of the causality has been reversed. Here, autonomous flows of (short-term) foreign capital have been the main drivers of the growth cycles of the economy, hence the dynamics of the current account balance. The aim of this study is to assess the structural determinants of the now chronic and serious current account deficit of the Turkish economy. To this end, we first look into the main drivers of this structural change in the relationship between the growth, foreign capital flows and current account balance. Next, we discuss the contribution of structural change, investment dynamics and de-industrialization to the problem of current account deficit of the economy.","PeriodicalId":416257,"journal":{"name":"METU Studies in Development","volume":"62 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132639839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-22DOI: 10.60165/metusd.v50i1.1284
Mustafa Türkeş
Kemalism is a topic that occupies national and international historiography and provokes fruitful and controversial debates. This paper has four objectives: firstly, to place Kemalism in its historical context; secondly, to discuss whether Kemalism was an ideological continuation of the Unionists and to review the ideological programme of the Kemalist administration; thirdly, to discuss the political structure of the Kemalist administration; and fourthly, to characterize the Kemalist administration in socio-economic terms. The paper argues that Turkey experienced a double revolution during the transition from the Ottoman Empire to the Turkish Republic. On the question of ideological continuity of the Unionists, the paper stresses both continuity and departure. On the political structure, the paper suggests that during the Kemalist era, power was concentrated in the hands of a few leading military-civilian bureaucrats, and thus the political structure was authoritarian, although it should be stressed that Kemalists retained essential institutions of representative democracy. In terms of the socio-economic characterization of the Kemalist administration, the paper argues that it was a coalition of military-civilian bureaucrats within which the disagreements occurred. The paper concludes that Kemalism was a national response aimed at bringing Turkey into the modern state-system.
{"title":"Kemalism revisited","authors":"Mustafa Türkeş","doi":"10.60165/metusd.v50i1.1284","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.60165/metusd.v50i1.1284","url":null,"abstract":"Kemalism is a topic that occupies national and international historiography and provokes fruitful and controversial debates. This paper has four objectives: firstly, to place Kemalism in its historical context; secondly, to discuss whether Kemalism was an ideological continuation of the Unionists and to review the ideological programme of the Kemalist administration; thirdly, to discuss the political structure of the Kemalist administration; and fourthly, to characterize the Kemalist administration in socio-economic terms. The paper argues that Turkey experienced a double revolution during the transition from the Ottoman Empire to the Turkish Republic. On the question of ideological continuity of the Unionists, the paper stresses both continuity and departure. On the political structure, the paper suggests that during the Kemalist era, power was concentrated in the hands of a few leading military-civilian bureaucrats, and thus the political structure was authoritarian, although it should be stressed that Kemalists retained essential institutions of representative democracy. In terms of the socio-economic characterization of the Kemalist administration, the paper argues that it was a coalition of military-civilian bureaucrats within which the disagreements occurred. The paper concludes that Kemalism was a national response aimed at bringing Turkey into the modern state-system.","PeriodicalId":416257,"journal":{"name":"METU Studies in Development","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124134828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-22DOI: 10.60165/metusd.v50i1.1287
Ümit Akçay
This article examines the post-2002 monetary policy in Turkey, specifically the CBRT's monetary policy experiment between 2021 and 2023. The article argues that overlapping priorities of the political power and the capitalists who advocate an export-led growth model based on price competitiveness has been one of the main drivers of changes in monetary policy. The study contends that the crisis of dependent financialization after 2013 prompted policy makers to adopt new strategies. This new orientation was accompanied by the change in the balance of power between the "established large capital groups" and "other capital groups" within the power bloc. The monetary policy experiment after 2021 was successful in alleviating the monetary policy dilemma faced by policy makers for a while and in maintaining employment, but failed in transitioning to an export-led growth model.
{"title":"Türkiye’de 2002-2023 arası uygulanan para politikalarının ekonomi politiği","authors":"Ümit Akçay","doi":"10.60165/metusd.v50i1.1287","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.60165/metusd.v50i1.1287","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines the post-2002 monetary policy in Turkey, specifically the CBRT's monetary policy experiment between 2021 and 2023. The article argues that overlapping priorities of the political power and the capitalists who advocate an export-led growth model based on price competitiveness has been one of the main drivers of changes in monetary policy. The study contends that the crisis of dependent financialization after 2013 prompted policy makers to adopt new strategies. This new orientation was accompanied by the change in the balance of power between the \"established large capital groups\" and \"other capital groups\" within the power bloc. The monetary policy experiment after 2021 was successful in alleviating the monetary policy dilemma faced by policy makers for a while and in maintaining employment, but failed in transitioning to an export-led growth model.","PeriodicalId":416257,"journal":{"name":"METU Studies in Development","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129212134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-22DOI: 10.60165/metusd.v50i1.1283
Hasan Cömert, T. Öncü
{"title":"İkili Açmaz çerçevesinden Türkiye’de yakın dönem merkez bankacılığı ve kur krizlerini anlamak","authors":"Hasan Cömert, T. Öncü","doi":"10.60165/metusd.v50i1.1283","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.60165/metusd.v50i1.1283","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":416257,"journal":{"name":"METU Studies in Development","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128258127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-22DOI: 10.60165/metusd.v50i1.1286
Özgür Orhangazi, A. E. Yeldan
After the initiation of the Central Bank's interest rate cut cycle in the autumn of 2021 the decline in the lira's value has triggered a rapid surge in both the inflation rate and inflation expectations. In December 2021, the lira entered a steep decline, which was only halted by a late-night announcement of Exchange Rate Protected Turkish Lira Denominated Deposit Accounts and later by a series of changes in banking regulations, aimed at curbing the increasing demand for foreign currency among residents. The government has defended these policies as a transition to a new economic model. In this paper, we will analyze the causes and consequences of this policy shift. We will demonstrate that Turkey's macroeconomic dynamics have long been influenced by the influx of foreign capital, which has resulted in the accumulation of vulnerabilities within the economy. Periods characterized by high global liquidity, such as 2002-2007 and 2010-2013, witnessed substantial inflows of foreign capital, leading to episodes of high growth, low inflation, and an overvalued exchange rate. Therefore, the policy framework implemented since the autumn of 2021 ought to be understood within this historical macroeconomic context. As to be expected, the outcome of this policy framework has significantly impacted the distribution of national income, resulting in a sharp decline in labor's share. We illustrate this and other macroeconomic consequences.
{"title":"“Türkiye Modeli” - 2021 ve Sonrası: Rastgele hedefler, gerçekleşmeler ve bir bilanço","authors":"Özgür Orhangazi, A. E. Yeldan","doi":"10.60165/metusd.v50i1.1286","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.60165/metusd.v50i1.1286","url":null,"abstract":"After the initiation of the Central Bank's interest rate cut cycle in the autumn of 2021 the decline in the lira's value has triggered a rapid surge in both the inflation rate and inflation expectations. In December 2021, the lira entered a steep decline, which was only halted by a late-night announcement of Exchange Rate Protected Turkish Lira Denominated Deposit Accounts and later by a series of changes in banking regulations, aimed at curbing the increasing demand for foreign currency among residents. The government has defended these policies as a transition to a new economic model. In this paper, we will analyze the causes and consequences of this policy shift. We will demonstrate that Turkey's macroeconomic dynamics have long been influenced by the influx of foreign capital, which has resulted in the accumulation of vulnerabilities within the economy. Periods characterized by high global liquidity, such as 2002-2007 and 2010-2013, witnessed substantial inflows of foreign capital, leading to episodes of high growth, low inflation, and an overvalued exchange rate. Therefore, the policy framework implemented since the autumn of 2021 ought to be understood within this historical macroeconomic context. As to be expected, the outcome of this policy framework has significantly impacted the distribution of national income, resulting in a sharp decline in labor's share. We illustrate this and other macroeconomic consequences.","PeriodicalId":416257,"journal":{"name":"METU Studies in Development","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127048504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-22DOI: 10.60165/metusd.v50i1.1222
Hulya Saygili, Aysun Türkvatan
In this study, using 4-digit product classification and the item weights for the year 2020, consumer price index of Turkey has been computed separately for tradable and non-tradable goods. The relationships between the changes in new price indices and the changes in real effective exchange rate, US dollar, Euro, foreign exchange basket and import prices as well as output gap, productivity and consumer credit interest rate have been examined. The study finds that in January 2004-December 2020 period, the average of tradable goods inflation was below the average of non-tradable goods inflation. The tradable inflation excluding energy is higher than tradable inflation; while non-tradable inflation excluding energy is below the non-tradable inflation. It has been found that the correlation between tradable goods inflation and domestic reference indicators as well as the correlation between inflation of non-tradable goods excluding energy-related items and not only domestic but also foreign reference indicators has been strengthened during the period of the effects of coronavirus outbreak in 2020. The findings confirm that tradable goods are more sensitive to external shocks and therefore their inflation may follow a different path from non-tradable goods inflation.
{"title":"Ticarete konu olan ve olmayan mallarda enflasyon dinamikleri","authors":"Hulya Saygili, Aysun Türkvatan","doi":"10.60165/metusd.v50i1.1222","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.60165/metusd.v50i1.1222","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, using 4-digit product classification and the item weights for the year 2020, consumer price index of Turkey has been computed separately for tradable and non-tradable goods. The relationships between the changes in new price indices and the changes in real effective exchange rate, US dollar, Euro, foreign exchange basket and import prices as well as output gap, productivity and consumer credit interest rate have been examined. The study finds that in January 2004-December 2020 period, the average of tradable goods inflation was below the average of non-tradable goods inflation. The tradable inflation excluding energy is higher than tradable inflation; while non-tradable inflation excluding energy is below the non-tradable inflation. It has been found that the correlation between tradable goods inflation and domestic reference indicators as well as the correlation between inflation of non-tradable goods excluding energy-related items and not only domestic but also foreign reference indicators has been strengthened during the period of the effects of coronavirus outbreak in 2020. The findings confirm that tradable goods are more sensitive to external shocks and therefore their inflation may follow a different path from non-tradable goods inflation.","PeriodicalId":416257,"journal":{"name":"METU Studies in Development","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130016109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-22DOI: 10.60165/metusd.v50i1.1285
Ali Çufadar
Turkey ended the period of high inflation and low growth in the 1990s with inflation targeting strategy. Between 2002 and 2016, policies focused on price stability achieved low inflation and supported stable growth. Starting from 2017, the gradual decline in the CBRT's independence, the increase in weight of growth in monetary policy decisions, and the active role of the Credit Guarantee Fund and public banks in credit policies increased investments and growth in the short term. However, with the abandonment of price stability-oriented policies, especially after September 2021, the role of CBRT's inflation target as a nominal anchor has eroded, inflation rates have risen significantly, foreign exchange reserves have fallen to critical levels, and the country's risk premium has increased. Current indicators, particularly the low CBRT reserves, show that the current monetary policy operational framework is not sustainable and that it needs to be revised.
{"title":"Türkiye’de yakın dönem merkez bankacılığı ve uygulanan politikaların sonuçları","authors":"Ali Çufadar","doi":"10.60165/metusd.v50i1.1285","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.60165/metusd.v50i1.1285","url":null,"abstract":"Turkey ended the period of high inflation and low growth in the 1990s with inflation targeting strategy. Between 2002 and 2016, policies focused on price stability achieved low inflation and supported stable growth. Starting from 2017, the gradual decline in the CBRT's independence, the increase in weight of growth in monetary policy decisions, and the active role of the Credit Guarantee Fund and public banks in credit policies increased investments and growth in the short term. However, with the abandonment of price stability-oriented policies, especially after September 2021, the role of CBRT's inflation target as a nominal anchor has eroded, inflation rates have risen significantly, foreign exchange reserves have fallen to critical levels, and the country's risk premium has increased. Current indicators, particularly the low CBRT reserves, show that the current monetary policy operational framework is not sustainable and that it needs to be revised.","PeriodicalId":416257,"journal":{"name":"METU Studies in Development","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122117228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2008-08-25DOI: 10.4324/9780203983911-40
W. Semmler, G. Gong
Recently, the dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model, or its more popular version, the Real Business Cycle Model, has become a dominant paradigm in macroeconomics. Also many New Keynesians have embraced this new paradigm. Keynes in his General Theory has extensively responded to and criticized classical economics that was dominant at his time. This paper elaborates on how Keynes would have responded to this new paradigm. Moreover, we discuss some major macroeconomic issues and show of how differences in traditional Keynesian and the DGE models may arise. We also elaborate of why certain Keynesian ideas can usefully be applied to modern macroeconomics which may help to resolve some important puzzles of modern macroeconomic theory.
{"title":"Keynes and Modern Macroeconomics","authors":"W. Semmler, G. Gong","doi":"10.4324/9780203983911-40","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203983911-40","url":null,"abstract":"Recently, the dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model, or its more popular version, the Real Business Cycle Model, has become a dominant paradigm in macroeconomics. Also many New Keynesians have embraced this new paradigm. Keynes in his General Theory has extensively responded to and criticized classical economics that was dominant at his time. This paper elaborates on how Keynes would have responded to this new paradigm. Moreover, we discuss some major macroeconomic issues and show of how differences in traditional Keynesian and the DGE models may arise. We also elaborate of why certain Keynesian ideas can usefully be applied to modern macroeconomics which may help to resolve some important puzzles of modern macroeconomic theory.","PeriodicalId":416257,"journal":{"name":"METU Studies in Development","volume":"109 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127674814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1900-01-01DOI: 10.1057/9780230276147_12
E. Nell
{"title":"Aggregate Demand, Employment and Equilibrium with Marginal Productivity: Keynesian Adjustment in the Craft Economy","authors":"E. Nell","doi":"10.1057/9780230276147_12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230276147_12","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":416257,"journal":{"name":"METU Studies in Development","volume":"60 2 Pt A 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126279769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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