Pub Date : 2023-10-17DOI: 10.33458/uidergisi.1358275
Adil YILDIZ
How does the rise of China challenge the existing international order? What are the possible outcomes of the interplay between China’s rise and the current trajectory of the Russian and Turkish regimes? Based on a qualitative analysis, I find twomajor dilemmas for the current power dynamics have resulted from China’s challenging behavior in the international system. First, while China promotes steady relationships based on mutual interests facilitated by the rule-based international order, it also carries out actions which feed its aspirations for exploiting the current international institutions. Second, while China underlines the importance of a Westphalian style of sovereignty and non-interference, it also takes interventionist actions in both cyberspace and territorial space. Based on identification of ChinaRussia and China-Turkey interactions through the variations in the most ‘central’ domestic issues of the current governments in Russia and Turkey, I predict four possible outcomes, shedding light on the future policy directions in Russia and Turkey: 1) a prolongation of Putin’s campaign in Ukraine, 2) an acceleration in the process of de-dollarization, 3) lasting Chinese influence on Turkey’s Kurdish issue, and 4) an increase in Turkey’s tendency toward a Chinese-style ‘growth’ model.
{"title":"The Rise of China and its Interplay with the Russian and Turkish Regimes","authors":"Adil YILDIZ","doi":"10.33458/uidergisi.1358275","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.33458/uidergisi.1358275","url":null,"abstract":"How does the rise of China challenge the existing international order? What are the possible outcomes of the interplay between China’s rise and the current trajectory of the Russian and Turkish regimes? Based on a qualitative analysis, I find twomajor dilemmas for the current power dynamics have resulted from China’s challenging behavior in the international system. First, while China promotes steady relationships based on mutual interests facilitated by the rule-based international order, it also carries out actions which feed its aspirations for exploiting the current international institutions. Second, while China underlines the importance of a Westphalian style of sovereignty and non-interference, it also takes interventionist actions in both cyberspace and territorial space. Based on identification of ChinaRussia and China-Turkey interactions through the variations in the most ‘central’ domestic issues of the current governments in Russia and Turkey, I predict four possible outcomes, shedding light on the future policy directions in Russia and Turkey: 1) a prolongation of Putin’s campaign in Ukraine, 2) an acceleration in the process of de-dollarization, 3) lasting Chinese influence on Turkey’s Kurdish issue, and 4) an increase in Turkey’s tendency toward a Chinese-style ‘growth’ model.","PeriodicalId":43730,"journal":{"name":"Uluslararasi Iliskiler-International Relations","volume":"83 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135944777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-17DOI: 10.33458/uidergisi.1358280
Orxan GAFARLI, Julia ROKNIFARD
In the past two decades, the Turkish government has been seeking strategic autonomy in international relations by trying different foreign policy styles. Throughout that time, Turkey strongly prioritized its own interests in relations with other regional and global powers, and pursued a multilateral and balanced policy, seeing it as a window for more opportunities to maneuver in foreign policy. Part of Turkey’s approach to strategic autonomy relied on hedging, even if it resulted in the emergence of asymmetric relations with others. For example, Turkey developed not always economically and politically symmetric relations with Russia that had strong implications for the Middle East, South Caucasus, Black Sea region and Central Asia. On 24 February 2022, after Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine, Turkey did not join in with Western sanctions against Russia, and instead attempted to mediate between Kyiv and Moscow. This decision was not spontaneous, as it was premised on years of building and strengthening bilateral ties with Russia, despite some devastating incidents between the two. This article is an inquiry into the search for strategic autonomy in Turkey’s foreign policy with a focus on its relations with Russia.
{"title":"Relations with Russia in The Context of Turkey’s Policy in Constructing its ‘Strategic Autonomy’","authors":"Orxan GAFARLI, Julia ROKNIFARD","doi":"10.33458/uidergisi.1358280","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.33458/uidergisi.1358280","url":null,"abstract":"In the past two decades, the Turkish government has been seeking strategic autonomy in international relations by trying different foreign policy styles. Throughout that time, Turkey strongly prioritized its own interests in relations with other regional and global powers, and pursued a multilateral and balanced policy, seeing it as a window for more opportunities to maneuver in foreign policy. Part of Turkey’s approach to strategic autonomy relied on hedging, even if it resulted in the emergence of asymmetric relations with others. For example, Turkey developed not always economically and politically symmetric relations with Russia that had strong implications for the Middle East, South Caucasus, Black Sea region and Central Asia. On 24 February 2022, after Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine, Turkey did not join in with Western sanctions against Russia, and instead attempted to mediate between Kyiv and Moscow. This decision was not spontaneous, as it was premised on years of building and strengthening bilateral ties with Russia, despite some devastating incidents between the two. This article is an inquiry into the search for strategic autonomy in Turkey’s foreign policy with a focus on its relations with Russia.","PeriodicalId":43730,"journal":{"name":"Uluslararasi Iliskiler-International Relations","volume":"56 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135944778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-17DOI: 10.33458/uidergisi.1357630
Dimitar BECHEV
The article studies the dynamics behind the unprecedented rapprochement between Turkey and Russia since the 2000s. It explains the growing degree of co-operation between Ankara and Moscow through the role of political leadership as well as to Turkey’s adjustment to the changing balance of power at the regional and global level. At the same time, the article highlights the competitive aspects of the relationship. It does so with reference to a series of case studies: the war in Syria, Turkey’s intervention in Libya since 2019, the purchase of S-400 surface to air missiles, energy security in the Black Sea the Southern Caucasus, and Turkey’s response to Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
{"title":"Worst of Friends, Best of Rivals: Agency vs Structure in Turkey-Russia Relations","authors":"Dimitar BECHEV","doi":"10.33458/uidergisi.1357630","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.33458/uidergisi.1357630","url":null,"abstract":"The article studies the dynamics behind the unprecedented rapprochement between Turkey and Russia since the 2000s. It explains the growing degree of co-operation between Ankara and Moscow through the role of political leadership as well as to Turkey’s adjustment to the changing balance of power at the regional and global level. At the same time, the article highlights the competitive aspects of the relationship. It does so with reference to a series of case studies: the war in Syria, Turkey’s intervention in Libya since 2019, the purchase of S-400 surface to air missiles, energy security in the Black Sea the Southern Caucasus, and Turkey’s response to Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.","PeriodicalId":43730,"journal":{"name":"Uluslararasi Iliskiler-International Relations","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135944772","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-17DOI: 10.33458/uidergisi.1357714
Çağrı ADİL
The paper discusses the institutional factors that influence the development of think tanks in different political systems, with a focus on Russia and Turkey. It identifies various institutional factors such as the structure of the decision-making process, the type of regime, bureaucratic structure, level of democratization, approach of decision-makers, presence of pluralism, effectiveness of political parties, strength of foundations, legal norms, state of civil society, presence of an open public debate culture, and autonomy of the business world that influence the operation of think tanks. The study examines the similarities and differences between the institutional environment of Russia and Turkey, provides examples of how political and institutional factors in different periods in Turkey and Russia have had a facilitating or complicating effect on the establishment and development of think tanks. This paper contributes to the literature by highlighting the importance of institutional factors in the formation, development, role, and structure of think tanks.
{"title":"Russian and Turkish Foreign Policy Think Tanks: Institutional Barriers to Influence over Decision-Making","authors":"Çağrı ADİL","doi":"10.33458/uidergisi.1357714","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.33458/uidergisi.1357714","url":null,"abstract":"The paper discusses the institutional factors that influence the development of think tanks in different political systems, with a focus on Russia and Turkey. It identifies various institutional factors such as the structure of the decision-making process, the type of regime, bureaucratic structure, level of democratization, approach of decision-makers, presence of pluralism, effectiveness of political parties, strength of foundations, legal norms, state of civil society, presence of an open public debate culture, and autonomy of the business world that influence the operation of think tanks. The study examines the similarities and differences between the institutional environment of Russia and Turkey, provides examples of how political and institutional factors in different periods in Turkey and Russia have had a facilitating or complicating effect on the establishment and development of think tanks. This paper contributes to the literature by highlighting the importance of institutional factors in the formation, development, role, and structure of think tanks.","PeriodicalId":43730,"journal":{"name":"Uluslararasi Iliskiler-International Relations","volume":"212 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135944773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-02DOI: 10.33458/uidergisi.1371674
Zeynep ARIÖZ, Derya TOPDAĞ
State fragility has received increasing attention in recent decades as a result of the nexus between development and international stability. This study investigates the empirical drivers of state fragility in sub-Saharan Africa from 2007 to 2019. We shed light on the explanatory variables of government effectiveness, political stability, per-capita GDP, grow GDP%, International Monetary Fund loans, and official development assistance. Using panel data analysis and a 39-country sample, our study finds that government efficiency and political stability, in contrast to foreign aid, has a significant effect on reducing fragility in sub-Saharan Africa. In light of these findings, the article proposes delivering foreign aid in ways that strengthen state capacity.
{"title":"Fragile States and Aid Allocation for Sub-Saharan African Countries: An Empirical Research","authors":"Zeynep ARIÖZ, Derya TOPDAĞ","doi":"10.33458/uidergisi.1371674","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.33458/uidergisi.1371674","url":null,"abstract":"State fragility has received increasing attention in recent decades as a result of the nexus between development and international stability. This study investigates the empirical drivers of state fragility in sub-Saharan Africa from 2007 to 2019. We shed light on the explanatory variables of government effectiveness, political stability, per-capita GDP, grow GDP%, International Monetary Fund loans, and official development assistance. Using panel data analysis and a 39-country sample, our study finds that government efficiency and political stability, in contrast to foreign aid, has a significant effect on reducing fragility in sub-Saharan Africa. In light of these findings, the article proposes delivering foreign aid in ways that strengthen state capacity.","PeriodicalId":43730,"journal":{"name":"Uluslararasi Iliskiler-International Relations","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135901477","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-24DOI: 10.33458/uidergisi.1357686
Sercan CANBOLAT, Stephen Benedict DYSON
Why was the United States, despite its overwhelming superiority in power, unable to prevent North Korea from developing nuclear weapons? Why did North Korea persist in its nuclear pursuit in the face of U.S. opposition? In this article, we represent nuclear proliferation and counter-proliferation as situations of subjective strategic interaction between states. We measure preferences over strategies and outcomes using operational codes of the leaders of each country, derived via linguistic analysis. Our results indicate that neither the U.S. nor North Korea accurately understood the other side’s preference ordering, and that their operational codes interacted in such a way as to produce an outcome favorable to North Korea – the weaker party - and unfavorable to the U.S. – the stronger. The wider contribution is to show that (mis)perceptions of the goals and resolve of the opponent play a crucial role in the success or failure of strong states to compel weak states and vice versa.
{"title":"Dominating the Superpower: A Bounded Rationality Approach to Nuclear Proliferation and Inhibition in the U.S. / North Korea Dyad","authors":"Sercan CANBOLAT, Stephen Benedict DYSON","doi":"10.33458/uidergisi.1357686","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.33458/uidergisi.1357686","url":null,"abstract":"Why was the United States, despite its overwhelming superiority in power, unable to prevent North Korea from developing nuclear weapons? Why did North Korea persist in its nuclear pursuit in the face of U.S. opposition? In this article, we represent nuclear proliferation and counter-proliferation as situations of subjective strategic interaction between states. We measure preferences over strategies and outcomes using operational codes of the leaders of each country, derived via linguistic analysis. Our results indicate that neither the U.S. nor North Korea accurately understood the other side’s preference ordering, and that their operational codes interacted in such a way as to produce an outcome favorable to North Korea – the weaker party - and unfavorable to the U.S. – the stronger. The wider contribution is to show that (mis)perceptions of the goals and resolve of the opponent play a crucial role in the success or failure of strong states to compel weak states and vice versa.","PeriodicalId":43730,"journal":{"name":"Uluslararasi Iliskiler-International Relations","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135465845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-12-01DOI: 10.33458/uidergisi.652877
M. Aydin, Cihan Di̇zdaroğlu
Dunya genelinde Uluslararasi Iliskiler (UI) disiplinine yonelik calismalara paralel olarak Turkiye’de de disiplinin gecirdigi donusum ve Turkiye’nin bilgi uretimine katkilarina yonelik calismalar yapilmaktadir. Ozellikle bu konulardaki calismalara veri saglamak amaciyla 2007 ve 2009’da dogrudan Uluslararasi Iliskiler Konseyi (UIK) tarafindan, 2011, 2014 ve 2018 yillarinda ise Institute for the Theory and Practice of International Relations at the College of William and Mary’nin yuruttugu Teaching, Research and International Policy (TRIP) arastirmasi ortakligi yoluyla yine UIK tarafindan Turkiye’de UI alaninda calisan akademisyenlere yonelik anketler duzenlenmistir. Temelinde epistemolojik ve ontolojik anlamda UI disiplininin sinirlari, ozgun karakteri ile UI akademisyenlerinin egitim ve arastirmalarinda hangi teorileri, yontemleri ve pedagojik yaklasimlari kullandiklarini anlamayi hedefleyen TRIP arastirmasi, Turkiye’deki UI calismalarinin kuresel UI disiplini icerisindeki konumunu anlamaya da yardimci olmaktadir. Bu makale, Şubat-Temmuz 2018 tarihlerinde es zamanli olarak 35 ulkede yurutulen son anket cercevesinde ortaya cikan sonuclari, Turkiye’yi merkeze alarak sunmaktadir.
{"title":"Türkiye’de Uluslararası İlişkiler: TRIP 2018 Sonuçları Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme","authors":"M. Aydin, Cihan Di̇zdaroğlu","doi":"10.33458/uidergisi.652877","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.33458/uidergisi.652877","url":null,"abstract":"Dunya genelinde Uluslararasi Iliskiler (UI) disiplinine yonelik calismalara paralel olarak Turkiye’de de disiplinin gecirdigi donusum ve Turkiye’nin bilgi uretimine katkilarina yonelik calismalar yapilmaktadir. Ozellikle bu konulardaki calismalara veri saglamak amaciyla 2007 ve 2009’da dogrudan Uluslararasi Iliskiler Konseyi (UIK) tarafindan, 2011, 2014 ve 2018 yillarinda ise Institute for the Theory and Practice of International Relations at the College of William and Mary’nin yuruttugu Teaching, Research and International Policy (TRIP) arastirmasi ortakligi yoluyla yine UIK tarafindan Turkiye’de UI alaninda calisan akademisyenlere yonelik anketler duzenlenmistir. Temelinde epistemolojik ve ontolojik anlamda UI disiplininin sinirlari, ozgun karakteri ile UI akademisyenlerinin egitim ve arastirmalarinda hangi teorileri, yontemleri ve pedagojik yaklasimlari kullandiklarini anlamayi hedefleyen TRIP arastirmasi, Turkiye’deki UI calismalarinin kuresel UI disiplini icerisindeki konumunu anlamaya da yardimci olmaktadir. Bu makale, Şubat-Temmuz 2018 tarihlerinde es zamanli olarak 35 ulkede yurutulen son anket cercevesinde ortaya cikan sonuclari, Turkiye’yi merkeze alarak sunmaktadir.","PeriodicalId":43730,"journal":{"name":"Uluslararasi Iliskiler-International Relations","volume":"15 1","pages":"3-28"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87136046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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