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The European difficult goal of being strategically autonomous 欧洲难以实现战略自主的目标
Pub Date : 2024-07-04 DOI: 10.32796/cice.2024.107.7801
Carlos Martí Sempere
The issue of the “strategic autonomy of the European Union (EU)” is being subject to high interest within the EU policy circles. This term, originally propelled by France and mainly focused on defence, has evolved to include a much broader set of security considerations as the economy, the health or technology to just name a few. However, this concept still retains an important defence dimension. This paper deeply explores this issue, mainly in relation to the defence dimension, but looking at the organizational, industrial and technological aspects which are closely related, trying to identify the different constraints that may bound or endanger this autonomy.
欧盟(EU)的战略自主权 "问题在欧盟政策界受到高度关注。这个词最初由法国提出,主要侧重于防务,现在已发展到包括经济、卫生或技术等一系列更广泛的安全考虑因素。然而,这一概念仍保留了重要的国防层面。本文深入探讨了这一问题,主要涉及国防层面,但也关注与之密切相关的组织、工业和技术方面,试图找出可能约束或危及这种自主性的不同制约因素。
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引用次数: 0
Política y economía ante el nuevo desorden mundial 新世界无序状态下的政治与经济
Pub Date : 2024-07-04 DOI: 10.32796/cice.2024.107.7804
Juan Luis Manfredi Sánchez, Ana Manero Salvador
La guerra de Ucrania ha consolidado los grandes cambios estructurales de la política y la economía global. Bajo el paradigma de la desglobalización, Estados Unidos y China abren una nueva era de competencia. La Unión Europea aspira a consolidar su ruta geopolítica, mientras que otros actores consolidan su capacidad e influencia. En materia económica, el retorno del Estado abre un nuevo escenario de política industrial y las cadenas globales de suministro representan la llave de la internacionalización. En perspectiva jurídica, el orden liberal se desvanece ante los constantes ataques de Rusia, China o las tesis políticas nativistas. En suma, se analiza la nueva era internacional.
乌克兰战争巩固了全球政治和经济的重大结构性变化。在去全球化的范式下,美国和中国开启了竞争的新时代。欧盟旨在巩固其地缘政治路线,而其他行为体则巩固其能力和影响力。在经济方面,国家的回归开启了新的产业政策格局,而全球供应链则是国际化的关键。在法律方面,面对来自俄罗斯、中国和本土主义政治论调的不断攻击,自由秩序正在消退。总之,我们对新的国际时代进行了分析。
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引用次数: 0
BRICS+: a Wake-Up Call for the G7? 金砖+:为七国集团敲响警钟?
Pub Date : 2024-07-04 DOI: 10.32796/cice.2024.107.7802
Katrin Kamin, Rolf J. Langhammer
The paper explores whether the changing dynamics of the BRICS potentially influence the formation of economic and political blocs and investigates whether BRICS+ can serve as a geoeconomic counterweight to the G7. Evaluating the impact of resource endowment, trade relations, political regimes, and financial market roles of BRICS+ members on the global economic and political landscapes, the article discusses the geopolitical importance of BRICS+, and the G7 responses. We conclude that the BRICS+ serve as a wake-up call for the G7, urging a reassessment of political and economic ties in the face of a changing global scenario.
本文探讨了 "金砖五国 "不断变化的动态是否会对经济和政治集团的形成产生潜在影响,并研究了 "金砖五国+"是否能成为与七国集团抗衡的地缘经济力量。文章评估了 "金砖五国+"成员的资源禀赋、贸易关系、政治体制和金融市场作用对全球经济和政治格局的影响,讨论了 "金砖五国+"的地缘政治重要性以及七国集团的对策。我们的结论是,"金砖+"为七国集团敲响了警钟,敦促其在不断变化的全球形势下重新评估政治和经济关系。
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引用次数: 0
La materialización del impacto comercial de la guerra en Ucrania en América Latina 乌克兰战争对拉丁美洲贸易影响的具体化
Pub Date : 2024-07-04 DOI: 10.32796/cice.2024.107.7786
Kathia Michalczewsky
La invasión de Rusia a Ucrania tuvo efectos sobre América Latina, principalmente, a través de la variación de los precios en algunos productos básicos clave en los que los países de la región comparten ventajas comparativas con las economías involucradas en el conflicto. La suba de las cotizaciones se materializó en aceleración de la inflación y deterioro de los términos de intercambio. La mejora esperada fue, en rigor, limitada a algunos países especializados en la exportación de combustibles. Las oportunidades para cubrir mercados que quedaran desatendidos por Rusia y Ucrania solo se concretaron en unos pocos productos específicos y determinados mercados.   
俄罗斯入侵乌克兰对拉丁美洲产生了影响,主要是通过一些主要商品价格的变化,该地区国家与卷入冲突的经济体在这些商品上具有共同的比较优势。价格上涨导致通货膨胀加速和贸易条件恶化。严格来说,预期的改善仅限于一些专门从事燃料出口的国家。只有少数几个特定产品和市场有机会覆盖俄罗斯和乌克兰没有关注的市场。
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引用次数: 0
La batalla de las narrativas en la guerra de Ucrania: implicaciones para un mundo en transición 乌克兰战争中的叙事之争:对转型世界的影响
Pub Date : 2024-07-04 DOI: 10.32796/cice.2024.107.7800
P. Moral
La guerra entre Rusia y Ucrania desencadenó una batalla de narrativas estratégicas que tenían como fin legitimar sus respectivas causas ante las audiencias internacionales. Ucrania se erigió como un mártir de la libertad que luchaba tanto por su supervivencia como por la de los valores liberales occidentales. Rusia, en cambio, impulsó una narrativa antioccidental que propugnaba un nuevo modelo de gobernanza global. Con la prolongación del conflicto, tanto Kiev como Moscú se centraron en persuadir al sur global, cuyo ascenso acelera la transición hacia un orden internacional multipolar, tanto en lo material como en el terreno de las ideas.
俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的战争引发了一场战略叙事之争,目的是在国际受众眼中使各自的事业合法化。乌克兰将自己塑造成自由的殉道者,为自身的生存和西方自由价值观而战。另一方面,俄罗斯则推行反西方叙事,倡导一种新的全球治理模式。随着冲突的持续,基辅和莫斯科都把重点放在说服全球南方国家上,因为南方国家的崛起加速了向多极国际秩序的过渡,无论是在物质上还是在思想领域。
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引用次数: 0
Geoeconomic spheres: The Age of Economic Multipolarity and Regionalism 地缘经济圈:经济多极化和地区主义时代
Pub Date : 2024-07-04 DOI: 10.32796/cice.2024.107.7803
Eduardo Castellet
With globalization being challenged by the end of unipolarity, international economics and supply chains are being redesigned to account for national security. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the cut-off of Russian gas to the European Union, and the purposeful employment of debt and shipping lanes to achieve political objectives forces the Western allies to de-risk their markets and economies. While protectionism is widely seen as inevitable, its lack of practicality prevents it from being a suitable replacement. Regional integration, and the creation of ally-based supply chains, however, present a unique opportunity in economic statecraft: to simultaneously strengthen alliances and de-risk our economies.
随着全球化受到单极化终结的挑战,国际经济和供应链正在重新设计,以顾及国家安全。俄罗斯入侵乌克兰、切断俄罗斯对欧盟的天然气供应、有目的地利用债务和航道来实现政治目标,这些都迫使西方盟国降低其市场和经济的风险。虽然保护主义被普遍认为是不可避免的,但由于缺乏实用性,它无法成为合适的替代品。然而,区域一体化和建立以盟国为基础的供应链为经济国策提供了一个独特的机会:同时加强盟国关系和降低经济风险。
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引用次数: 0
The energy trilemma once more: new relations between accelerating decarbonization, ensuring energy security and promoting economic development in a new era of geopolitical and geoeconomic competition 能源三难:在地缘政治和地缘经济竞争的新时代,加速去碳化、确保能源安全和促进经济发展之间的新关系
Pub Date : 2024-07-04 DOI: 10.32796/cice.2024.107.7781
Pau Ruiz Guix
Una aceleración del ritmo de la descarbonización y el despliegue de energía limpia impulsada por objetivos de mitigación climática y seguridad energética está definiendo una nueva era de política industrial y competencia geoeconómica. Este articulo explora cómo el trilema energético, la complejidad de afrontar los objetivos de sostenibilidad, seguridad y equidad energética a la vez, ha evolucionado después de la invasión rusa de Ucrania, y qué nuevas tensiones surgen entre sus tres patas en el contexto actual de tensión geopolítica. El articulo concluye que, si bien surgen nuevos desafíos difíciles para lograr la sostenibilidad, la seguridad y la equidad simultáneamente en el contexto actual, existen opciones para garantizar transiciones energéticas rápidas, seguras y justas.
在气候减缓和能源安全目标的推动下,去碳化和清洁能源部署步伐的加快正在定义一个产业政策和地缘经济竞争的新时代。本文探讨了在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之后,能源三难问题--同时解决可持续发展、能源安全和能源公平目标的复杂性--是如何演变的,以及在当前地缘政治紧张的背景下,能源三难问题的三条腿之间出现了哪些新的紧张关系。文章的结论是,虽然在当前背景下同时实现可持续性、安全性和公平性面临着新的困难挑战,但仍有确保快速、安全和公正的能源转型的选择方案。
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引用次数: 0
From complex to weaponized interdependence: Scenario-building in the Arctic 从复杂的相互依存到武器化的相互依存:北极的情景模拟
Pub Date : 2024-07-04 DOI: 10.32796/cice.2024.107.7799
Iris Thatcher
The Ukraine war poses significant challenges to the Arctic and its mantra, “High North – Low Tension.” The pause of the Arctic Council, widespread sanctions against Russia and the expedited application of Finland and Sweden to NATO are changing the contours of the region. This article analyzes how the Russian invasion of Ukraine impacted Arctic affairs through the lens of the Sino-Russian relationship, utilizing Farrell and Newman’s (2019) concept of weaponized interdependence to outline future geopolitical scenarios. Findings indicate that Western incorporation of Beijing in Arctic dialogues is key to hedge economic, political and security dependencies to Russia.
乌克兰战争对北极及其 "高北纬-低张力 "的口号提出了重大挑战。北极理事会的暂停、对俄罗斯的广泛制裁以及芬兰和瑞典加速申请加入北约都在改变着该地区的轮廓。本文从中俄关系的角度分析了俄罗斯入侵乌克兰如何影响北极事务,并利用法雷尔和纽曼(2019)的武器化相互依存概念勾勒了未来的地缘政治场景。研究结果表明,西方将北京纳入北极对话是规避对俄罗斯的经济、政治和安全依赖的关键。
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引用次数: 0
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