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Strategic interaction between Russia and US in Syria: a game theoretic analysis from 2014-2022 俄美在叙利亚的战略互动:2014-2022年的博弈论分析
Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI: 10.47264/idea.lassij/7.1.13
Zohaib Gillani, Saira Aquil, Huda Rehman
The strategic interests of Russia and the US clash in the Syrian conflict. Moscow’s policy in Syria aims for the Assad government to remain in power, whereas the US policy seeks to bring a regime change in Syria by toppling the Assad government. The competition and cooperation between Russia and the US in the Middle Eastern region are quite complex and reflect a tussle for regional dominance. A game theoretic analysis is conducted for the interaction between two great powers to examine the strategies opted by both players in the case of the Syrian civil war. This paper analyses the role of Russian and American regional policy objectives in Syria from 2014 to 2022. This study considers the cause-and-effect relationship in the regional supremacy of Russia and the US and studies them as independent variables. The conflict in policy goals of both powers in the Syrian conflict is taken as the dependent variable. The methodology applied in this paper is game theory because it explains cause-and-effect phenomena in a systematic and detailed manner. The game between Russia and the US is to achieve maximum foreign policy objectives in Syria, which is concluded as a zero-sum game from 2014-2022.
俄罗斯和美国的战略利益在叙利亚冲突中发生冲突。莫斯科对叙利亚的政策旨在让阿萨德政府继续掌权,而美国的政策则是通过推翻阿萨德政府来实现叙利亚政权更迭。俄美在中东地区的竞争与合作相当复杂,反映了地区主导权的争夺。本文对两个大国之间的互动进行了博弈论分析,考察了双方在叙利亚内战中所选择的策略。本文分析了2014年至2022年俄罗斯和美国在叙利亚地区政策目标的作用。本研究将俄美区域霸权的因果关系作为自变量进行研究。以两国在叙利亚冲突中政策目标的冲突为因变量。本文采用的方法是博弈论,因为博弈论系统而详细地解释了因果现象。俄罗斯和美国之间的博弈是为了在叙利亚实现最大的外交政策目标,从2014年到2022年,这是一场零和博弈。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of the greenfield-foreign direct investment on the economic growth of Afghanistan 绿地外国直接投资对阿富汗经济增长的影响
Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI: 10.47264/idea.lassij/7.1.11
Tariq Aziz, Ali Raza, Mawludin Tarakai, None Hassan
Afghanistan is a least developed country; during the liberation, about three-fourths of the economy was ruined, and over the past two decades, the country has geared up a slight economic growth. The study's objective is to assess the impact of greenfield foreign direct investment on the economic growth of Afghanistan during the interval 2002-2021. The research also investigates the effect of remittances, foreign aid, and population. In this study, the stationarity of all variables is checked via the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF). The results were analysed with ARDL and ECM techniques. The results show that greenfield investment and remittances are statistically significant in the short and long run. Foreign aid is insignificant in the short and long run. The population is insignificant in the long run but significant in the short run. First, the government of Afghanistan improved its friendly investment policy to attract foreign investors. Second, the government of Afghanistan signed an agreement with neighbouring countries, especially developed countries, to send their skilled and educated labour so they will easily earn their livelihood and send remittances to their families. Third, the government of Afghanistan should avoid foreign aid that may affect its economy in the short term.
阿富汗是最不发达国家;在解放期间,大约四分之三的经济被摧毁,在过去的二十年里,这个国家已经加快了经济的轻微增长。该研究的目的是评估2002年至2021年期间阿富汗绿地外国直接投资对经济增长的影响。该研究还调查了汇款、外援和人口的影响。在本研究中,通过增强Dickey-Fuller检验(ADF)检查所有变量的平稳性。用ARDL和ECM技术对结果进行分析。结果表明,绿地投资与汇款在短期和长期均具有统计学显著性。从短期和长期来看,外援都是微不足道的。从长远来看,人口是微不足道的,但在短期内却很重要。一是完善友好投资政策,吸引外资。其次,阿富汗政府与邻国,特别是发达国家签署了一项协议,将其熟练和受过教育的劳动力送到阿富汗,使他们能够轻松谋生并向家人汇款。第三,阿富汗政府应该避免可能在短期内影响其经济的外国援助。
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引用次数: 0
Maritime dimension of Modi’s foreign policy: Indo-Gulf maritime cooperation and its implications for Pakistan 莫迪外交政策的海洋维度:印度-海湾海洋合作及其对巴基斯坦的影响
Pub Date : 2023-06-30 DOI: 10.47264/idea.lassij/7.1.12
Asia Karim, Manzoor Ahmad Naazer, Amna Mahmood, Saiqa Bukhari
Owing to its geostrategic significance, the Indian Ocean is central to global maritime competition. Aimed at establishing its dominance over the Indian Ocean, India is an important player in this global power struggle. The current paper focuses on a crucial sub-region of the Indian Ocean, i.e., the Persian Gulf. Indian maritime security strategy (2015) mentioned the region as central to its interests. The study aims to uncover the maritime dimension of PM Modi’s foreign policy, the strategic significance of the Persian Gulf region for India, and the enhanced maritime Indo-Gulf interaction since Modi took office in 2014. A significant focus of the research is to analyse the possible implications of enriched Indo-Gulf maritime cooperation for Pakistan's foreign and defence policies. For probing the issue, a qualitative research method has been utilised. Primary sources included official documents and reports by the Ministry of External Affairs and the Ministry of Defence of the Indian government. Books, newspapers, and research articles were consulted as secondary data. The Paper concludes that the gradual increase in the maritime interaction between India and Gulf states is seriously challenging Pakistan’s historical standing in the area. Pakistan needs to pursue a proactive strategy for securing its interests.
由于其地缘战略意义,印度洋是全球海洋竞争的中心。为了在印度洋建立主导地位,印度在这场全球权力斗争中扮演着重要角色。本文的重点是印度洋的一个重要次区域,即波斯湾。印度海上安全战略(2015年)提到该地区是其利益的核心。该研究旨在揭示莫迪总理外交政策的海洋维度,波斯湾地区对印度的战略意义,以及自2014年莫迪上任以来加强的印度-海湾海上互动。该研究的一个重要重点是分析印度-海湾海上合作对巴基斯坦外交和国防政策的可能影响。为了探讨这一问题,采用了定性研究方法。主要资料来源包括印度政府外交部和国防部的官方文件和报告。参考书籍、报纸和研究文章作为次要资料。《澎湃新闻》的结论是,印度和海湾国家之间的海上互动逐渐增加,严重挑战了巴基斯坦在该地区的历史地位。巴基斯坦需要采取积极主动的战略来确保自己的利益。
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