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Comments on the Oyster Aquaculture Industry in China: 1985-2020. 中国牡蛎养殖业评述:1985-2020。
IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q3 Agricultural and Biological Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-09 DOI: 10.1007/s41208-023-00558-1
Shu Yu, Xiaomei Hou, Changkun Huan, Yongtong Mu

Since the 1980s, China's oyster aquaculture has grown quickly in the past four decades, and it became the top mariculture species in China with an annual production of 5.23 million in 2019. Understanding the growth of oyster aquaculture in China is important to gain insights into successful long-term production. This paper attempts to decompose China's oyster aquaculture between trends and cycles by means of an HP filter, make a specific identification of the relevant factors according to the Cobb-Douglas production function, to summarize the objective law of yield fluctuations. Results suggest that from 1985 to 2011, China's oyster aquaculture experienced a development stage of "rapid rise - steady development". At this stage, it shows a slow growth trend, and the growth can persist for long periods of time. The improvement of consumption level driven by economic growth is the main facilitating factor to promote the oyster industry, export trade and oyster price are also critical, diseases and disasters did not exert much influence on the growth of China's oyster aquaculture. The biggest problem hindering sustainable development is the tragedy of the commons caused by the limitation of marine resources, the contradiction of development will become a thorny issue.

自20世纪80年代以来,中国的牡蛎养殖在过去40年中发展迅速,2019年以523万只的年产量成为中国顶级海水养殖物种。了解中国牡蛎养殖业的发展对于深入了解成功的长期生产至关重要。本文试图通过HP滤波器在趋势和周期之间分解中国牡蛎养殖,根据Cobb Douglas生产函数对相关因素进行具体识别,总结产量波动的客观规律。结果表明,从1985年到2011年,我国牡蛎养殖业经历了“快速崛起-稳步发展”的发展阶段。在这个阶段,它表现出缓慢的增长趋势,并且这种增长可以持续很长一段时间。经济增长驱动的消费水平的提高是促进牡蛎产业发展的主要因素,出口贸易和牡蛎价格也至关重要,疾病和灾害对中国牡蛎养殖业的增长没有太大影响。阻碍可持续发展的最大问题是海洋资源有限造成的公地悲剧,发展矛盾将成为一个棘手的问题。
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