Pub Date : 2024-09-10DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104962
Jan Eeckhout, Xi Weng
In the last decades, there has been a marked decline in the job flows to and from unemployment and between employment. We ask whether and how technological change can account for his secular decline in labor market dynamism. We propose a theory that focuses on the determinants of technology broadly defined: 1. the complementarity between worker skill and firm productivity; and 2. the volatility in productivity shocks; and 3. search frictions. We derive job flows in a sorting model with search frictions and endogenous search effort both on and off the job, as well as shocks that lead to mismatch. We quantify our model using the US data and find an increase in the complementarity between labor and technology, a decline in the frequency and volatility of productivity shocks, and a decline in the match efficiency as well as an increase in the search costs. The changing nature of these features of the technology contributes to the secular decline in labor market dynamism.
{"title":"The technological origins of the decline in labor market dynamism","authors":"Jan Eeckhout, Xi Weng","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104962","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104962","url":null,"abstract":"In the last decades, there has been a marked decline in the job flows to and from unemployment and between employment. We ask whether and how technological change can account for his secular decline in labor market dynamism. We propose a theory that focuses on the determinants of technology broadly defined: 1. the complementarity between worker skill and firm productivity; and 2. the volatility in productivity shocks; and 3. search frictions. We derive job flows in a sorting model with search frictions and endogenous search effort both on and off the job, as well as shocks that lead to mismatch. We quantify our model using the US data and find an increase in the complementarity between labor and technology, a decline in the frequency and volatility of productivity shocks, and a decline in the match efficiency as well as an increase in the search costs. The changing nature of these features of the technology contributes to the secular decline in labor market dynamism.","PeriodicalId":501661,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142269935","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-06DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104959
Neha Bairoliya, Kathleen McKiernan
Social Security (SS) benefits, with an average replacement rate of around 40 percent, serve as an important source of retirement income for older Americans. Yet, the size of lifetime benefits a household receives depends on many factors, including the age of benefit claim and life-cycle labor supply decisions. Given the complexity of the associated rules, many households may lack understanding of one or more aspects of the system. In this work, we use a life-cycle model of consumption, savings, labor supply, and Social Security application decisions to study the welfare impact of such misinformation. Our findings indicate significant welfare losses stemming from misinformation, especially when it causes individuals to strongly over-estimate the value of future entitlements. Additionally, we show that the program, a large public information campaign, must inform only 20.1 percent of misinformed individuals in order for aggregate benefits of information to outweigh aggregate costs.
{"title":"The welfare costs of misinformation","authors":"Neha Bairoliya, Kathleen McKiernan","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104959","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104959","url":null,"abstract":"Social Security (SS) benefits, with an average replacement rate of around 40 percent, serve as an important source of retirement income for older Americans. Yet, the size of lifetime benefits a household receives depends on many factors, including the age of benefit claim and life-cycle labor supply decisions. Given the complexity of the associated rules, many households may lack understanding of one or more aspects of the system. In this work, we use a life-cycle model of consumption, savings, labor supply, and Social Security application decisions to study the welfare impact of such misinformation. Our findings indicate significant welfare losses stemming from misinformation, especially when it causes individuals to strongly over-estimate the value of future entitlements. Additionally, we show that the program, a large public information campaign, must inform only 20.1 percent of misinformed individuals in order for aggregate benefits of information to outweigh aggregate costs.","PeriodicalId":501661,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control","volume":"199 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142269560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-05DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104964
Kurt Mitman, Stanislav Rabinovich
Countercyclical unemployment benefit extensions in the United States act as a propagation mechanism, contributing to the high persistence of unemployment following recent recessions, as well as the weak correlation between unemployment and productivity. We show this by modifying an otherwise standard frictional model of the labor market to incorporate a stochastic and state-dependent process for unemployment insurance estimated on US data. Accounting for movements in both productivity and unemployment insurance, our calibrated model is consistent with post-war labor-market dynamics. It explains the emergence of jobless recoveries in the 1990s, the low correlation between unemployment and productivity, and the apparent shifts in the Beveridge curve following recessions.
{"title":"Do unemployment benefit extensions explain the emergence of jobless recoveries?","authors":"Kurt Mitman, Stanislav Rabinovich","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104964","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104964","url":null,"abstract":"Countercyclical unemployment benefit extensions in the United States act as a propagation mechanism, contributing to the high persistence of unemployment following recent recessions, as well as the weak correlation between unemployment and productivity. We show this by modifying an otherwise standard frictional model of the labor market to incorporate a stochastic and state-dependent process for unemployment insurance estimated on US data. Accounting for movements in both productivity and unemployment insurance, our calibrated model is consistent with post-war labor-market dynamics. It explains the emergence of jobless recoveries in the 1990s, the low correlation between unemployment and productivity, and the apparent shifts in the Beveridge curve following recessions.","PeriodicalId":501661,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142269561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-04DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104958
Sebastian Dyrda, Greg Kaplan, José-Víctor Ríos-Rull
Household size is countercyclical, mainly because of young people moving into or delaying departure from the parental home. Those living in older households earn less and have more volatile hours than their peers living alone. We pose a theory of household formation and labor choice over the business cycle. Young people decide where to live depending on their wage, taste for living within the old household, and implicit transfers received. Our theory accounts for the bulk of the contribution of the household's size volatility to the volatility of the aggregate hours. Including people with varying living arrangements yields an implied aggregate, or macro, Frisch elasticity around 70 percent larger than the assumed micro elasticity.
{"title":"Living arrangements and labor market volatility of young workers","authors":"Sebastian Dyrda, Greg Kaplan, José-Víctor Ríos-Rull","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104958","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104958","url":null,"abstract":"Household size is countercyclical, mainly because of young people moving into or delaying departure from the parental home. Those living in older households earn less and have more volatile hours than their peers living alone. We pose a theory of household formation and labor choice over the business cycle. Young people decide where to live depending on their wage, taste for living within the old household, and implicit transfers received. Our theory accounts for the bulk of the contribution of the household's size volatility to the volatility of the aggregate hours. Including people with varying living arrangements yields an implied aggregate, or macro, Frisch elasticity around 70 percent larger than the assumed micro elasticity.","PeriodicalId":501661,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142263336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-27DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104945
Fatih Guvenen, Serdar Ozkan, Rocio Madera
Recent empirical studies document that the distribution of earnings changes displays substantial deviations from lognormality: in particular, earnings changes are negatively skewed with extremely high kurtosis (long and thick tails), and these non-Gaussian features vary substantially both over the life cycle and with the earnings level of individuals. Furthermore, earnings changes display nonlinear (asymmetric) mean reversion. In this paper, we embed a very rich “benchmark earnings process” that captures these non-Gaussian and nonlinear features into a lifecycle consumption-saving model and study its implications for consumption dynamics, consumption insurance, and welfare. We show four main results. First, the benchmark process essentially matches the empirical lifetime earnings inequality—a first-order proxy for consumption inequality—whereas the canonical Gaussian (persistent-plus-transitory) process understates it by a factor of five to ten. Second, the welfare cost of idiosyncratic risk implied by the benchmark process is between two-to-four times higher than the canonical Gaussian one. Third, the standard method in the literature for measuring the pass-through of income shocks to consumption—can significantly overstate the degree of consumption smoothing possible under non-Gaussian shocks. Fourth, the marginal propensity to consume out of transitory income (e.g., from a stimulus check) is higher under non-Gaussian earnings risk.
{"title":"Consumption dynamics and welfare under non-Gaussian earnings risk","authors":"Fatih Guvenen, Serdar Ozkan, Rocio Madera","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104945","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104945","url":null,"abstract":"Recent empirical studies document that the distribution of earnings changes displays substantial deviations from lognormality: in particular, earnings changes are negatively skewed with extremely high kurtosis (long and thick tails), and these non-Gaussian features vary substantially both over the life cycle and with the earnings level of individuals. Furthermore, earnings changes display nonlinear (asymmetric) mean reversion. In this paper, we embed a very rich “benchmark earnings process” that captures these non-Gaussian and nonlinear features into a lifecycle consumption-saving model and study its implications for consumption dynamics, consumption insurance, and welfare. We show four main results. First, the benchmark process essentially matches the empirical lifetime earnings inequality—a first-order proxy for consumption inequality—whereas the canonical Gaussian (persistent-plus-transitory) process understates it by a factor of five to ten. Second, the welfare cost of idiosyncratic risk implied by the benchmark process is between two-to-four times higher than the canonical Gaussian one. Third, the standard method in the literature for measuring the pass-through of income shocks to consumption—can significantly overstate the degree of consumption smoothing possible under non-Gaussian shocks. Fourth, the marginal propensity to consume out of transitory income (e.g., from a stimulus check) is higher under non-Gaussian earnings risk.","PeriodicalId":501661,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142263337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-02-23DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104840
Mikhail Anufriev, Jasmina Arifovic, Anil Donmez, John Ledyard, Valentyn Panchenko
{"title":"IEL-CDA Model: A more accurate theory of behavior in continuous double auctions","authors":"Mikhail Anufriev, Jasmina Arifovic, Anil Donmez, John Ledyard, Valentyn Panchenko","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104840","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104840","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":501661,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control","volume":"76 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139950787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104804
Ernest Aboagye, Stanley Iat-Meng Ko, Chia Chun Lo, C. Hsiao, Liang Peng
{"title":"A Contagion Test With Unspecified Heteroscedastic Errors","authors":"Ernest Aboagye, Stanley Iat-Meng Ko, Chia Chun Lo, C. Hsiao, Liang Peng","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104804","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104804","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":501661,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control","volume":"66 15","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139014288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：