Thomas Roper, Robert Bertuzzi, David Oliveira, Jurij Karlovšek
Underground engineering projects are often characterised by significant uncertainties, leading to complex decision‐making when selecting appropriate design methods. Traditional approaches, such as the observational method (OM), have been widely used but rarely explicitly account for the integration of risk, costs, construction timeframes and engineering judgement. Successfully reaching a consensus to implement the OM on tunnelling projects can be challenging and requires ensuring stakeholders understand how the method impacts structural safety. Fostering such understanding can be an arduous process. A risk‐based decision framework is introduced using expected utility theory to aid the decision to choose the OM, or not. The framework integrates risk, cost, construction timelines and engineering judgement within an economic decision model using a probabilistic approach. It is tested on a Sydney, Australia case study. A Monte Carlo model analysis examines contingency actions and structural failure probability when applying the OM. The case study highlights the significance of considering indirect costs in complex decisions and harnesses experienced professionals’ insights for a comprehensive risk and cost assessment. We conclude that merging probabilistic‐based design with OM enhances the ability to demonstrate structural safety and economic factors within a unified model.
地下工程项目通常具有很大的不确定性，因此在选择适当的设计方法时需要做出复杂的决策。观察法（OM）等传统方法已被广泛使用，但很少明确考虑风险、成本、施工时间和工程判断等综合因素。在隧道项目中成功达成实施观测法的共识具有挑战性，需要确保利益相关者了解该方法对结构安全的影响。培养这种理解可能是一个艰巨的过程。本文介绍了一个基于风险的决策框架，利用预期效用理论来帮助做出选择或不选择 OM 的决策。该框架采用概率方法，将风险、成本、施工时间和工程判断整合到经济决策模型中。该框架在澳大利亚悉尼的案例研究中进行了测试。蒙特卡洛模型分析检查了采用运行管理时的应急行动和结构失效概率。该案例研究强调了在复杂决策中考虑间接成本的重要性，并利用经验丰富的专业人士的见解进行了全面的风险和成本评估。我们的结论是，将基于概率的设计与 OM 相结合，可提高在统一模型中展示结构安全和经济因素的能力。
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