Developing accurate and effective sales plans is of great value to every enterprise. This article takes the cigarette marketing line in L region as the research object, and develops a monthly sales model that matches the actual situation and has guiding value. The monthly sales forecast is constrained by annual sales and experience, resulting in two main problems: low planning accuracy and large fluctuations in actual monthly sales, making modeling difficult. Through research, it has been found that the fluctuations between different years and the same month are relatively small compared to the annual fluctuations. Therefore, it has been decided to adopt three types of exponential smoothing models: simple equilibrium, Hote linearity, and Brownian trend to predict monthly sales. By comparing three models, the Hote linear model predicts results more accurately.
制定准确有效的销售计划对每个企业来说都具有重要价值。本文以 L 地区卷烟营销一线为研究对象，建立了符合实际情况、具有指导价值的月度销售模型。月度销售预测受年度销量和经验的制约，主要存在两个问题：一是计划准确率低，二是月度实际销量波动大，建模难度大。通过研究发现，与年度波动相比，不同年度和同一月份之间的波动相对较小。因此，决定采用三种指数平滑模型：简单平衡模型、霍特线性模型和布朗趋势模型来预测月度销售额。通过比较三种模型，霍特线性模型的预测结果更为准确。
{"title":"Monthly Sales Forecast of Cigarettes under the Background of Business and Finance Integration","authors":"Jianbo Xue, Huahua Wu, Xiaoxia Shen","doi":"10.22158/jepf.v10n3p95","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22158/jepf.v10n3p95","url":null,"abstract":"Developing accurate and effective sales plans is of great value to every enterprise. This article takes the cigarette marketing line in L region as the research object, and develops a monthly sales model that matches the actual situation and has guiding value. The monthly sales forecast is constrained by annual sales and experience, resulting in two main problems: low planning accuracy and large fluctuations in actual monthly sales, making modeling difficult. Through research, it has been found that the fluctuations between different years and the same month are relatively small compared to the annual fluctuations. Therefore, it has been decided to adopt three types of exponential smoothing models: simple equilibrium, Hote linearity, and Brownian trend to predict monthly sales. By comparing three models, the Hote linear model predicts results more accurately.","PeriodicalId":508163,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Public Finance","volume":"27 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141927352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
As the scale and complexity of power systems continue to expand, traditional control and optimization methods are increasingly unable to meet the needs of modern power systems. Intelligent control and optimization methods, by introducing advanced artificial intelligence technologies, can better address complex issues within power systems. This paper explores the application of intelligent control and optimization methods in power systems, analyzing their basic principles, implementation methods, and practical application cases. The research aims to improve the operational efficiency and stability of power systems, providing theoretical support for the modern management of power systems.
{"title":"Research on Intelligent Control and Optimization Methods in Power Systems","authors":"Mingxin Xiao","doi":"10.22158/jepf.v10n2p153","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22158/jepf.v10n2p153","url":null,"abstract":"As the scale and complexity of power systems continue to expand, traditional control and optimization methods are increasingly unable to meet the needs of modern power systems. Intelligent control and optimization methods, by introducing advanced artificial intelligence technologies, can better address complex issues within power systems. This paper explores the application of intelligent control and optimization methods in power systems, analyzing their basic principles, implementation methods, and practical application cases. The research aims to improve the operational efficiency and stability of power systems, providing theoretical support for the modern management of power systems.","PeriodicalId":508163,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Public Finance","volume":"12 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141341920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This is the nineteenth paper—and twentieth study--that follows the footsteps of nineteen studies that have tried to analyze the competitive profiles of U.S. consumer markets: Men’s Shaving Cream, Beer, Shampoo, Shredded/Grated Cheese, Refrigerated Orange Juice, Men’s Razor-Blades, Women’s Razor-Blades, Toothpaste, Canned Soup, Coffee, Potato Chips, Alkaline AA Battery, Facial Tissue, Toilet Paper, Paper Towel, Disposable Diapers, Sanitary Pads, Automatic-Dishwasher Detergent, and Hand-Dishwashing Detergent. Michael Porter associates high market share with cost leadership strategy, which is based on the idea of competing on a price that is lower than that of the competition.However, customer-perceived quality—not low cost—should be the underpinning of competitive strategy, because it is far more vital to long-term competitive position and profitability than any other factor. So, a superior alternative is to offer better quality vs. the competition.In most consumer markets, a business seeking market share leadership should try to serve the middle class by competing in the mid-price segment; and offering quality better than that of the competition: at a price somewhat higher to signify an image of quality, and to ensure that the strategy is both profitable and sustainable in the long run. The middle class is the socio-economic segment that represents about 40% of households in America.Quality, however, is a complex concept, consumers generally find difficult to understand. So, they often use relative price, and a brand’s reputation, as a symbol of quality.The U.S. Household Liquid Non-Disinfectant Cleaner market had retail sales of $381 million in 2008. It was by far the largest segment of the eleven-segment Household Cleaners market, which had 2008 retail sales of $1,747 million. We have focused our attention on the 24-40 Oz size because it was the most popular, constituting 46% sales of the former market.The Household Liquid Non-Disinfectant Cleaner market was highly competitive, with no dominant player. In 2008 it had 24 brands each with sales over $ 1 million.Using Hierarchical Cluster Analysis, we tested two hypotheses: (I) That the market leader is likely to compete in the mid-price segment, and that (II) Its unit price is likely to be higher than that of the nearest competition.For 2008--and 2007--the data supported both Hypothesis I and II, because the market leader, Formula 409, was a member of the mid-price segment, and its unit price was higher that of the runner-up, Fantastic, also a member of the same segment. We found that relative price was a strategic variable, as we have hypothesized.We also discovered four strategic groups in this market.A pattern is emerging in price-quality segmentation analysis. In thirteen studies—that exclude Men’s Razor-Blades, Women’s Razor-Blades, Coffee, Toilet Paper, Paper Towels, Disposable Diapers, and Sanitary Pads—the market leader was found to be a member of the mid-price segment, as we have hypothes
{"title":"The U.S. Household Liquid Non-Disinfectant Cleaner Market: A Competitive Profile","authors":"Y. Datta","doi":"10.22158/jepf.v10n3p1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22158/jepf.v10n3p1","url":null,"abstract":"This is the nineteenth paper—and twentieth study--that follows the footsteps of nineteen studies that have tried to analyze the competitive profiles of U.S. consumer markets: Men’s Shaving Cream, Beer, Shampoo, Shredded/Grated Cheese, Refrigerated Orange Juice, Men’s Razor-Blades, Women’s Razor-Blades, Toothpaste, Canned Soup, Coffee, Potato Chips, Alkaline AA Battery, Facial Tissue, Toilet Paper, Paper Towel, Disposable Diapers, Sanitary Pads, Automatic-Dishwasher Detergent, and Hand-Dishwashing Detergent. Michael Porter associates high market share with cost leadership strategy, which is based on the idea of competing on a price that is lower than that of the competition.However, customer-perceived quality—not low cost—should be the underpinning of competitive strategy, because it is far more vital to long-term competitive position and profitability than any other factor. So, a superior alternative is to offer better quality vs. the competition.In most consumer markets, a business seeking market share leadership should try to serve the middle class by competing in the mid-price segment; and offering quality better than that of the competition: at a price somewhat higher to signify an image of quality, and to ensure that the strategy is both profitable and sustainable in the long run. The middle class is the socio-economic segment that represents about 40% of households in America.Quality, however, is a complex concept, consumers generally find difficult to understand. So, they often use relative price, and a brand’s reputation, as a symbol of quality.The U.S. Household Liquid Non-Disinfectant Cleaner market had retail sales of $381 million in 2008. It was by far the largest segment of the eleven-segment Household Cleaners market, which had 2008 retail sales of $1,747 million. We have focused our attention on the 24-40 Oz size because it was the most popular, constituting 46% sales of the former market.The Household Liquid Non-Disinfectant Cleaner market was highly competitive, with no dominant player. In 2008 it had 24 brands each with sales over $ 1 million.Using Hierarchical Cluster Analysis, we tested two hypotheses: (I) That the market leader is likely to compete in the mid-price segment, and that (II) Its unit price is likely to be higher than that of the nearest competition.For 2008--and 2007--the data supported both Hypothesis I and II, because the market leader, Formula 409, was a member of the mid-price segment, and its unit price was higher that of the runner-up, Fantastic, also a member of the same segment. We found that relative price was a strategic variable, as we have hypothesized.We also discovered four strategic groups in this market.A pattern is emerging in price-quality segmentation analysis. In thirteen studies—that exclude Men’s Razor-Blades, Women’s Razor-Blades, Coffee, Toilet Paper, Paper Towels, Disposable Diapers, and Sanitary Pads—the market leader was found to be a member of the mid-price segment, as we have hypothes","PeriodicalId":508163,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Public Finance","volume":"26 25","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141357373","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The credit of an enterprise is related to its own development. This paper mainly discusses the relationship between the credit risk of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and the application degree of blockchain. 64 listed companies with block chain technology as the core theme are selected to analyze their comprehensive financial data. Factor analysis is used to quantitatively evaluate the application degree of blockchain in SMEs, and then the Logistic model is used to evaluate the credit risk of SMEs. Finally, combining the application degree of blockchain in small and medium-sized enterprises and the credit risk assessment of these two groups of data. It confirms the conclusion that the higher the degree of blockchain application, the closer the supply chain finance relationship, and the better the credit status.
{"title":"Research on the Application of Blockchain in SMEs Credit Risk","authors":"Yi-min Zheng, Feng Xu, Yi-min Zhang, Jie Wang","doi":"10.22158/jepf.v10n1p96","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22158/jepf.v10n1p96","url":null,"abstract":"The credit of an enterprise is related to its own development. This paper mainly discusses the relationship between the credit risk of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and the application degree of blockchain. 64 listed companies with block chain technology as the core theme are selected to analyze their comprehensive financial data. Factor analysis is used to quantitatively evaluate the application degree of blockchain in SMEs, and then the Logistic model is used to evaluate the credit risk of SMEs. Finally, combining the application degree of blockchain in small and medium-sized enterprises and the credit risk assessment of these two groups of data. It confirms the conclusion that the higher the degree of blockchain application, the closer the supply chain finance relationship, and the better the credit status.","PeriodicalId":508163,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Public Finance","volume":"112 27","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139616489","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Wealth disparity is a complex issue that has plagued the world for many years. China’s economic development has achieved world-renowned results during the last 40 years. Over that time, the country has risen from extreme poverty to the world’s second-largest economy. Nevertheless, the significant wealth inequality accompanying it has also caused great concern. At the start of China’s reform and opening-up period, government officials tacitly approved of this uneven development and made plans to “drive the rich first to the rich later” in pursuit of economic development. Economic development aims to achieve shared prosperity, not to deprive the relatively poor of wealth. As a result, wealth disparity in China must be addressed. Based on the Kuznets hypothesis, the theory of urban-rural dual structure, and the current situation in China, this paper has evaluated the current wealth gap in China. Since 1978, Chinese households’ wealth accumulation has come from the income gap. Private property was not allowed to exist during China’s planned economy period (1949-1977). After the reform and opening up period (After 1978), income disparities between various industrial sectors led to an initial round of wealth accumulation for many Chinese citizens. The industrialisation process and urbanisation rate significantly impacted China’s economic modernisation and growth. Therefore, this paper has analysed the effects of several factors on income disparity in China. The examined factors were; economic development, the urbanisation rate, and the industrialisation process. Based on the theoretical analysis, this paper selected time series data from 1978 to 2021, including; per capita GDP, the per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents, the urban population to total population ratio, and industry contribution to the GDP. First, an analysis of the impact of economic development on income inequality was conducted using a static model. Then, a VAR model was built through ADF and PP testing, and an impulse response and variance analysis were conducted to explain the impact of various factors on the change rate of income inequality. The study results indicated that (1) Economic development has resulted in a significant increase in the income of urban and rural residents. However, urban residents have benefited more. Simultaneously, the income gap between urban and rural areas has grown significantly alongside economic expansion. (2) Urbanisation showed little effect on the income gap in the short term; however, it increased it in the long term. (3) Industrialisation reduced the short- and long-term income gap while increasing urbanisation.
{"title":"Study on Urban-Rural Income Inequality in China—Based on VAR Model","authors":"Weiji Lu","doi":"10.22158/jepf.v10n1p67","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22158/jepf.v10n1p67","url":null,"abstract":"Wealth disparity is a complex issue that has plagued the world for many years. China’s economic development has achieved world-renowned results during the last 40 years. Over that time, the country has risen from extreme poverty to the world’s second-largest economy. Nevertheless, the significant wealth inequality accompanying it has also caused great concern. At the start of China’s reform and opening-up period, government officials tacitly approved of this uneven development and made plans to “drive the rich first to the rich later” in pursuit of economic development. Economic development aims to achieve shared prosperity, not to deprive the relatively poor of wealth. As a result, wealth disparity in China must be addressed. Based on the Kuznets hypothesis, the theory of urban-rural dual structure, and the current situation in China, this paper has evaluated the current wealth gap in China. Since 1978, Chinese households’ wealth accumulation has come from the income gap. Private property was not allowed to exist during China’s planned economy period (1949-1977). After the reform and opening up period (After 1978), income disparities between various industrial sectors led to an initial round of wealth accumulation for many Chinese citizens. The industrialisation process and urbanisation rate significantly impacted China’s economic modernisation and growth. Therefore, this paper has analysed the effects of several factors on income disparity in China. The examined factors were; economic development, the urbanisation rate, and the industrialisation process. Based on the theoretical analysis, this paper selected time series data from 1978 to 2021, including; per capita GDP, the per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents, the urban population to total population ratio, and industry contribution to the GDP. First, an analysis of the impact of economic development on income inequality was conducted using a static model. Then, a VAR model was built through ADF and PP testing, and an impulse response and variance analysis were conducted to explain the impact of various factors on the change rate of income inequality. The study results indicated that (1) Economic development has resulted in a significant increase in the income of urban and rural residents. However, urban residents have benefited more. Simultaneously, the income gap between urban and rural areas has grown significantly alongside economic expansion. (2) Urbanisation showed little effect on the income gap in the short term; however, it increased it in the long term. (3) Industrialisation reduced the short- and long-term income gap while increasing urbanisation.","PeriodicalId":508163,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Public Finance","volume":" 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139623800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Since 2015, the issuance of special bonds by local governments has experienced rapid growth. Special bonds have played a constructive role in stimulating fixed asset investment and infrastructure development, emerging as a pivotal financing mechanism for local governments. This study takes A province as a case study, compiling data on its bond issuance and employing the KMV model to calculate the anticipated default probability and overall default risk of A province's special bonds during 2023-2025. Furthermore, a comparative analysis is conducted with neighboring provinces such as C and B. The findings indicate that A province's government debt risk is generally manageable; however, there exists some level of default risk associated with special bonds. It should be noted that when considering refinancing bond issuance, the repayment of principal and interest on local government special bonds heavily relies on these refinancing instruments, temporarily reducing but not eliminating default risk. Finally, based on empirical analysis results, several policy recommendations are proposed to address the risks posed by local government debt.
2015 年以来，地方政府专项债券发行量快速增长。专项债券在拉动固定资产投资和基础设施建设方面发挥了建设性作用，成为地方政府举足轻重的融资机制。本研究以 A 省为案例，整理其债券发行数据，运用 KMV 模型计算 A 省 2023-2025 年专项债券的预期违约概率和整体违约风险。研究结果表明，A 省政府债务风险总体可控，但专项债券存在一定程度的违约风险。需要注意的是，在考虑发行再融资债券时，地方政府专项债券的本息偿还在很大程度上依赖于这些再融资工具，暂时降低但不能消除违约风险。最后，根据实证分析结果，提出了应对地方政府债务风险的若干政策建议。
{"title":"Research on the Risk of Local Government Special Debt Based on KMV Model: Taking A Province as an Example","authors":"Rui Qiao, Bin Tang","doi":"10.22158/jepf.v10n1p52","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22158/jepf.v10n1p52","url":null,"abstract":"Since 2015, the issuance of special bonds by local governments has experienced rapid growth. Special bonds have played a constructive role in stimulating fixed asset investment and infrastructure development, emerging as a pivotal financing mechanism for local governments. This study takes A province as a case study, compiling data on its bond issuance and employing the KMV model to calculate the anticipated default probability and overall default risk of A province's special bonds during 2023-2025. Furthermore, a comparative analysis is conducted with neighboring provinces such as C and B. The findings indicate that A province's government debt risk is generally manageable; however, there exists some level of default risk associated with special bonds. It should be noted that when considering refinancing bond issuance, the repayment of principal and interest on local government special bonds heavily relies on these refinancing instruments, temporarily reducing but not eliminating default risk. Finally, based on empirical analysis results, several policy recommendations are proposed to address the risks posed by local government debt.","PeriodicalId":508163,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Public Finance","volume":" 21","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139626336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Minting Zhao, Dan Chen, Yiwei Wei, Fo Yang, Yongqiang Zhang
This study examined the effects of the brand logo’s frames (complete vs. incomplete) on consumers’ perceptions and attitudes. There were 452 participants in two studies online. The results show that the brand logos with complete (vs. incomplete) frames have higher safety (in Study 1). Moreover, the logos’ frames of complete (vs. incomplete) brands will generate the positive brand attitudes through increasing the consumers’ psychological perception of safety. For products with high safety attributes, consumers will have a higher evaluation of the brand logos with the complete frames, but there is no effect for products with less important safety attributes (in Study 2). This paper provides some guidance for the research of consumers’ psychological perceptions, and also broadens the scope of application of the conceptual metaphor.
{"title":"The Effects of Logos’ Frames on Consumers’ Psychological Perceptions and Brand Attitudes","authors":"Minting Zhao, Dan Chen, Yiwei Wei, Fo Yang, Yongqiang Zhang","doi":"10.22158/jepf.v10n1p40","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22158/jepf.v10n1p40","url":null,"abstract":"This study examined the effects of the brand logo’s frames (complete vs. incomplete) on consumers’ perceptions and attitudes. There were 452 participants in two studies online. The results show that the brand logos with complete (vs. incomplete) frames have higher safety (in Study 1). Moreover, the logos’ frames of complete (vs. incomplete) brands will generate the positive brand attitudes through increasing the consumers’ psychological perception of safety. For products with high safety attributes, consumers will have a higher evaluation of the brand logos with the complete frames, but there is no effect for products with less important safety attributes (in Study 2). This paper provides some guidance for the research of consumers’ psychological perceptions, and also broadens the scope of application of the conceptual metaphor.","PeriodicalId":508163,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Public Finance","volume":"51 17","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139445755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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