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Cross-border Approach to Economic Cooperation between Russia and Kazakhstan in the Sphere of Turnover of Precious Metals and Stones 俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦在贵金属和宝石交易领域的跨境经济合作方式
Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2023-6-110-122
L.N. Ivanova, E.N. Badmaeva
In the conditions of expanding interaction between friendly countries, the cross-border approach to economic cooperation in strategically important areas is becoming increasingly important. The methodological basis of this study was the dialectical method of cognition, which allows analyzing and synthesizing economic phenomena, dissecting them into separate elements. The methods of logical, economic and situational analysis were also used. The authors give a bibliographic review of economic cooperation between Russia and the Republic of Kazakhstan using a cross-border approach to the analysis of the precious metals and stones market; show the role of the Republic of Kazakhstan at historical stages in the formation of integration processes in the Eurasian space; characterize the structure of the market of precious metals and stones and products made of them. The market of precious metals, gemstones and products made of them is a promising direction of Kazakhstan's economic development. The Republic of Kazakhstan is successfully improving the state regulation of the precious metals and gemstones industry, taking into account global trends and best practices in this area. Cross-border cooperation between Kazakhstan and Russia will contribute to their further economic development.
在友好国家间互动不断扩大的条件下,在具有战略意义的领域开展跨境经济合作的方法正变得越来越重要。本研究的方法论基础是辩证认知法,该方法可以分析和综合经济现象,将其分解为不同的要素。此外,还采用了逻辑分析、经济分析和情景分析方法。作者采用跨境分析贵金属和宝石市场的方法,对俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦共和国之间的经济合作进行了文献综述;说明了哈萨克斯坦共和国在欧亚空间一体化进程形成的历史阶段所起的作用;描述了贵金属和宝石市场及其产品的结构特点。贵金属、宝石及其制品市场是哈萨克斯坦经济发展的一个有前途的方向。哈萨克斯坦共和国正在根据贵金属和宝石行业的全球趋势和最佳做法,成 功地改善国家对贵金属和宝石行业的监管。哈萨克斯坦和俄罗斯之间的跨境合作将有助于两国经济的进一步发展。
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引用次数: 0
Fiscal Mechanism for Stimulating Domestic Production in Some BRICS and European Countries 一些金砖国家和欧洲国家刺激国内生产的财政机制
Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2023-6-123-135
V.V. Olkhovik, R. S. Afanasev, E. Juchnevicius, T. Malofeeva
The issue of stimulating domestic production is multifaceted and has a long history of study. At present, it is particularly relevant due to the introduction of restrictive measures, including the termination of supplies of a number of foreign goods to the Russian Federation. As one of the possible measures to increase the production of goods by Russian companies and entrepreneurs, the authors consider a new incentive mechanism of redistribution of value added tax (VAT) received by the federal budget, which implies the direction of the amounts of social grants taking into account the economic activity of the region associated with the production of value added on its territory. The purpose of the article is to justify a new methodology that includes a financial mechanism for redistributing the amounts of VAT in the form of grants to producers, aimed at creating effective budgetary incentives for regions to organize their own production of goods. For this purpose, the experience of VAT distribution in two BRICS countries — Brazil and China — is considered. In addition, the article summarizes effective measures of Germany, France, Greece, Austria and Norway to optimize calculation and payment of VAT, which resulted in economic growth. Discussion. One notable approach proposed by the authors to create a new incentive mechanism for redistribution of VAT revenues to the federal budget. This mechanism involves the allocation of social grants depending on the economic activity of the regions, particularly related to the production of valueadded goods on their territory. This approach represents a departure from traditional fiscal policies aimed at aligning incentives with local production. Results. This research represents a significant contribution to the ongoing debate on stimulating domestic production. By advocating a new mechanism of VAT redistribution and drawing on international experiences, the study seeks to address the challenges posed by restrictive measures and promote economic growth in the Russian Federation.
刺激国内生产的问题涉及多个方面,研究历史悠久。目前,由于采取了限制性措施,包括终止向俄罗斯联邦供应一些外国商品,这一问题显得尤为重要。作为增加俄罗斯公司和企业家商品生产的可能措施之一,作者考虑了联邦预算增值税(VAT)再分配的新激励机制,这意味着社会补助金数额的方向要考虑到与该地区境内增值生产相关的经济活动。本文的目的是论证一种新的方法,其中包括一种以向生产者提供补助金的形式重新分配增值税金额的财政机制,旨在为各地区组织自己的商品生产提供有效的预算激励。为此,文章考虑了巴西和中国这两个金砖国家的增值税分配经验。此外,文章还总结了德国、法国、希腊、奥地利和挪威优化增值税计算和缴纳的有效措施,这些措施促进了经济增长。讨论。作者提出的一个值得注意的方法是建立一个新的激励机制,将增值税收入重新分配给联邦预算。该机制包括根据各地区的经济活动,特别是与在其领土上生产增值产品有关的经济活动来分配社会补助金。这种方法有别于传统的财政政策,旨在使激励措施与当地生产相一致。成果。这项研究对目前关于刺激国内生产的讨论做出了重要贡献。通过倡导一种新的增值税再分配机制并借鉴国际经验,本研究旨在应对限制性措施带来的挑战并促进俄罗斯联邦的经济增长。
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引用次数: 0
Bank Crisis Management Policies and the New Instability 银行危机管理政策与新的不稳定性
Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2023-6-43-60
A. Patalaha, M. A. Shchepeleva
This research focuses on the determinants of banking crises. Despite all efforts to create systems of leading indicators, banking crises still occur, leading to negative consequences not only in the financial but also in the real sector of the economy. Our objective is to figure out how the characteristics of past banking crises, in particular the amount of liquidity support provided by the government, are related to the probability of subsequent banking crises. To accomplish this task, we use a classification tree methodology which we apply to a sample of 56 countries over the period 2000–2021. In addition to the characteristics of past crisis episodes, we add to the list of potential predictors of banking crises indicators related to the depth, structure and efficiency of the banking sector; institutional and macroeconomic indicators; and the index of macroprudential policy. To test the robustness of our results, we perform variable selection through Bayesian model averaging. Our results suggest that liquidity support during the past banking crisis is important for future crises. We demonstrate that excessive government support aimed at stabilizing the system during a crisis may affect future banking sector stability mainly by increasing the level of moral hazard in the financial system.
这项研究的重点是银行危机的决定因素。尽管为建立领先指标体系做出了种种努力,但银行业危机仍时有发生,不仅给金融业,也给实体经济部门带来了负面影响。我们的目标是弄清过去银行业危机的特征,特别是政府提供的流动性支持的数量,与随后发生银行业危机的概率之间的关系。为了完成这一任务,我们采用了分类树方法,并将其应用于 2000-2021 年间 56 个国家的样本中。除了以往危机事件的特征外,我们还在银行危机潜在预测因素列表中添加了与银行业的深度、结构和效率相关的指标;制度和宏观经济指标;以及宏观审慎政策指数。为了检验结果的稳健性,我们通过贝叶斯模型平均法进行了变量选择。我们的结果表明,过去银行业危机期间的流动性支持对未来的危机非常重要。我们证明,政府在危机期间为稳定系统而提供的过度支持可能会影响未来银行业的稳定,主要是通过增加金融系统的道德风险水平。
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引用次数: 0
Three Levels of Digital Inequality of the Population in the Financial Sphere 金融领域人口数字不平等的三个层次
Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2023-6-93-109
E. Brichka, Y. Evlakhova
The article examines the problems of digital inequality in the financial sphere at three levels. The purpose of the study is to characterize and assess (quantitatively or qualitatively) the digital inequality of the Russian population in the financial sphere (at each of the three levels). The achievement of the research goal is ensured by using the index method, methods of graphical analysis, as well as comparative analysis of empirical data. The result of the work is the developed index of the first-level digital inequality in the financial sphere, which allows to give an aggregate assessment. The calculated values of the index confirm the conclusions about the steady decline in the Russian economy of the first-level digital inequality in the financial sphere. As for the second-level digital inequality, the following results were obtained: In 2021, a significant part of the Russian population possessed such basic skills as sending files via e-mail and messengers, working with a text editor and copying or moving files; the share of the population possessing advanced skills increased, while the availability of basic and standard digital skills remained virtually unchanged; the level of digital literacy does not affect the population’s activity in ordering financial services online. A list of digital financial skills has been formulated, which can be assessed in further analysis of the second-level digital inequality. The theoretical description of the third-level digital inequality led us to conclude that to better understand this level, an expanded analysis is required, as well as progress in overcoming the digital gaps of the first and second levels.
文章从三个层面探讨了金融领域的数字不平等问题。研究的目的是(从数量或质量上)描述和评估俄罗斯人口在金融领域(三个层面中的每一个层面)的数字不平等问题。通过使用指数法、图表分析法以及对经验数据的比较分析,确保研究目标的实现。工作成果是制定了金融领域一级数字不平等指数,该指数可以进行综合评估。该指数的计算值证实了俄罗斯经济中金融领域一级数字不平等稳步下降的结论。至于二级数字不平等,结果如下:2021 年,相当一部分俄罗斯人掌握了通过电子邮件和信使发送文件、使用文本编辑器、复制或移动文件等基本技能;掌握高级技能的人口比例有所增加,而基本和标准数字技能的可用性几乎保持不变;数字知识水平不影响人们在线订购金融服务的活动。数字金融技能清单已经制定,可在进一步分析第二级数字不平等时对其进行评估。通过对第三级数字不平等的理论描述,我们得出结论,要更好地理解这一级别,需要扩大分析范围,并在克服第一级和第二级数字差距方面取得进展。
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引用次数: 0
Estimation of Heterogenous Consumption and Income Parameters 异质性消费和收入参数的估算
Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2023-6-76-92
P. Koval, A. Polbin
In modern economic literature, much attention is paid to estimates of the structural parameters of consumer choice and the process of income generation. Such estimations play an important role in determining the optimal insurance system, optimal monetary and fiscal policies, as well as in assessing the welfare of the population. In this paper, we estimate a set of parameters that determine the dynamics of household income and consumption in Russia. These parameters are heterogeneous at the household level; the paper uses the estimation method proposed in [Alan et al., 2018]. To estimate the parameters we use RLMS panel data for the period 2005–2019. The results indicate the presence of significant co-dependent heterogeneity of the parameters determining the dynamics of income and consumption. These results reflect the specifics of the consumer behavior of households in Russia. In particular, significant heterogeneity in the sensitivity of consumption to income shocks indicates a large variability of consumption insurance mechanisms available to households. In addition, there is significant heterogeneity in the dispersion of income shocks, which is critical in the context of the discussion of heterogeneous insurance instruments against income shocks (e.g., access to financial assets), as households with higher variation in unanticipated income change value these instruments more. This study is the first to estimate the full distribution of heterogeneous parameters of consumption and income dynamics using Russian data. Estimates of heterogeneous parameters are important for constructing theoretical models of consumer choice and analyzing optimal social policy. In particular, high values of the level of parameter heterogeneity indicate that standard models with a representative agent are not suitable for optimal policy choices.
在现代经济文献中,对消费者选择和创收过程的结构参数估计备受关注。这种估算在确定最佳保险制度、最佳货币和财政政策以及评估人口福利方面发挥着重要作用。在本文中,我们估算了一组决定俄罗斯家庭收入和消费动态的参数。这些参数在家庭层面具有异质性;本文采用了[Alan 等人,2018]中提出的估算方法。为了估算参数,我们使用了 2005-2019 年期间的 RLMS 面板数据。结果表明,决定收入和消费动态的参数存在显著的共同依赖异质性。这些结果反映了俄罗斯家庭消费行为的特殊性。特别是,消费对收入冲击的敏感性存在明显的异质性,这表明家庭可用的消费保险机制存在很大差异。此外,收入冲击的分散性也存在显著的异质性,这对于讨论针对收入冲击的异质性保险工具(如获得金融资产)至关重要,因为非预期收入变化较大的家庭更重视这些工具。本研究首次利用俄罗斯数据估算了消费和收入动态异质性参数的全部分布情况。异质性参数的估算对于构建消费者选择理论模型和分析最优社会政策非常重要。特别是,参数异质性水平的高值表明,具有代表性代理人的标准模型不适合最优政策选择。
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引用次数: 0
Non-resource Revenues to the Consolidated Budget: Analysis by Types of Economic Activity 综合预算的非资源收入:按经济活动类型分析
Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2023-6-8-26
A. .. Osmolovskaya-Suslina, S. R. Borisova
This paper presents an analysis of non-resource revenues of the consolidated budget of Russia by types of economic activity. The purpose of this study was to identify which sectors are the most sensitive to shocks form the fiscal point of view, and to answer the questions: how long it takes for the revenues of different sectors recover from “local lows” and how the sectoral structure of budget revenues affects the volatility of payments. In accordance with the set objectives, we examined the dynamics of consolidated budget revenues in real terms for the period 2008–2022 as a whole and by sector. In addition, a sectoral analysis was provided for CIT. The calculations were based on the data of the Federal Tax Service prepared by excluding payments on natural rent. The analysis showed that revenue fluctuations are largely determined by the dynamics of payments from the extractive sector (especially oil production), and an increase in the sector’s share is likely to increase the overall volatility of revenues. In fiscal terms, the processing sector is the most sustainable for total revenues but provides a source of volatility in CIT dynamics. Revenues from financial activities show the fastest recovery from the crises. Trade and finance have a stabilizing effect on both total revenues and CIT dynamics. The results of the study can be used at the stage of budget planning.
本文按经济活动类型对俄罗斯综合预算的非资源性收入进行了分析。本研究的目的在于从财政角度确定哪些部门对冲击最为敏感,并回答以下问题:不同部门的收入从 "局部低点 "恢复需要多长时间,以及预算收入的部门结构如何影响支付的波动性。根据既定目标,我们研究了 2008--2022 年期间合并预算收入的整体和各部门的实际动态。此外,还对企业所得税进行了部门分析。计算以联邦税务局的数据为基础,剔除了自然租金的支付。分析表明,财政收入的波动在很大程度上取决于采掘业(尤其是石油生产)的支付动态,而采掘业所占份额的增加可能会加剧财政收入的整体波动。从财政角度看,加工部门的总收入最具可持续性,但也是基本建设信托基金动态波动的来源。金融活动的收入从危机中恢复最快。贸易和金融对总收入和企业所得税动态都有稳定作用。研究结果可用于预算规划阶段。
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引用次数: 0
Capital Flight from Russia and Possible Sources of Financing Budget Expenditures 俄罗斯的资本外逃和预算支出的可能资金来源
Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2023-6-27-42
P.E. Zhukov
The article considers the problems of capital flight from Russia in current conditions and the related problems of financing budget expenditures. The difference between capital export and capital flight, which occurs in conditions of extremely high risks or unfavorable investment climate, is substantiated. The balance of payments of Russia in 2022 is analyzed, and it is substantiated that in the current situation capital flows are largely capital flight from political and economic risks. The author estimates the size of capital flight from Russia in 2022 (approximately $232 billion), and concludes that the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings in modern conditions can be replaced by more flexible control measures. Further, the paper analyzes a set of complex problems of financing the federal budget expenditures of Russia in the current conditions. Three possible mechanisms of financing the budget deficit (or additional expenditures) are considered: at the expense of new public debt, at the expense of the National Welfare Fund and sale of state assets, as well as at the expense of new emergency taxes. It is concluded that attraction of new sources for government borrowing is practically impossible without a significant increase in interest expenditures. At the end of the paper, for the recovery of the Russian economy, there is a proposal to introduce a new flexible tax on the export of capital, which can create incentives for investment in the Russian economy and solve the problems of financing federal budget expenditures in modern conditions.
文章探讨了当前条件下俄罗斯的资本外逃问题以及相关的预算支出融资问题。文章论证了在风险极高或投资环境不利的情况下发生的资本输出与资本外逃之间的区别。对 2022 年俄罗斯的国际收支情况进行了分析,证明在当前形势下,资本流动主要是逃避政治和经济风险的资本外逃。作者估计了 2022 年俄罗斯资本外逃的规模(约 2 320 亿美元),并得出结论:在现代条件下,可以用更加灵活的控制措施取代强制出售外汇收入的做法。此外,本文还分析了在当前条件下俄罗斯联邦预算支出融资的一系列复杂问题。本文考虑了三种可能的预算赤字(或额外支出)融资机制:以新公债为代价、以国家福利基金和国有资产出售为代价,以及以新的紧急税收为代价。结论是,如果不大幅增加利息支出,吸引新的政府借款来源实际上是不可能的。在本文的最后,为了俄罗斯经济的复苏,建议对资本输出征收新的灵活税,这可以激励对俄罗斯经济的投资,并解决现代条件下联邦预算支出的融资问题。
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引用次数: 0
Possible Organizational and Economic Schemes of Index Insurance in Russian Agriculture 俄罗斯农业指数保险的可能组织和经济方案
Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2023-6-61-75
A. Tsyganov, I.A. Bystronovskaya
Agricultural risks, given climate change and the crisis of globalization, are increasingly considered as national security risks. In global practice, insurance has proven to be one of the most successful and sustainable ways to manage agricultural risks. In the Russian Federation, agricultural insurance is also state-supported, which emphasizes the importance of containment of agricultural sector hazards. However, the level of insurance penetration in Russian agriculture is insufficient. Indices in agricultural insurance, i.e. insurance in which insurance payments are made not on the basis of the assessment of damage to the insurance object, but on the basis of the behavior of a special index, are used in many countries around the world. The main idea of index insurance is that there is no need to establish the fact and calculate the amount of loss, which makes it especially demanded for those activities in the real sector of the economy where speed, transparency and simplicity of insurance payments are important, as well as the need to attract additional well-trained employees to carry out the insurance process and claims settlement. Reduced workload due to the absence of the need to calculate the amount of loss reduces the time required to process claims. The procedures of claim settlement in index insurance can be called the most simplified for the client and the least costly for the insurance company, but the advantages and positive features of index insurance do not end there. The authors have investigated and systematized the possibilities of index insurance, for which they also considered the successful experience of a country with similar socio-cultural codes, Mexico, in the field of agricultural index insurance. The article also suggests ways to overcome the difficulties of index insurance implementation in the Russian insurance realities. The positive features of the index insurance identified by the authors can make it a promising alternative to classical (traditional) insurance, including for the further development of agricultural insurance with state support.
鉴于气候变化和全球化危机,农业风险日益被视为国家安全风险。全球实践证明,保险是管理农业风险最成功、最可持续的方式之一。在俄罗斯联邦,农业保险也是由国家支持的,这强调了控制农业部门风险的重要性。然而,保险在俄罗斯农业中的渗透程度还不够。农业保险中的指数保险,即不是根据对保险标的损失的评估,而是根据一个特殊指数的行为来支付保险金的保险,在世界许多国家都有应用。指数保险的主要理念是不需要确定事实和计算损失金额,这使得它特别适用于实体经济部门的活动,因为在这些活动中,保险支付的速度、透明度和简便性非常重要,而且还需要吸引更多训练有素的员工来执行保险流程和理赔。由于不需要计算损失金额,因此减少了工作量,缩短了处理索赔所需的时间。对客户来说,指数保险的理赔程序可以说是最简化的,对保险公司来说,成本也是最低的,但指数保险的优势和积极特点并不仅限于此。作者对指数保险的可能性进行了研究和系统化,为此他们还考虑了社会文化规范相似的国家墨西哥在农业指数保险领域的成功经验。文章还提出了在俄罗斯保险现实中克服指数保险实施困难的方法。作者所确定的指数保险的积极特征可使其成为传统(传统)保险的有前途的替代品,包括在国家支持下进一步发展农业保险。
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引用次数: 0
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