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The effect of output level, exchange rate and interest rate on inflation in BRIC-T countries 金砖四国的产出水平、汇率和利率对通货膨胀的影响
Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1108/reps-08-2023-0091
Yusuf Ekrem Akbaş, Zafer Dönmez, Esra Can
PurposeIn this study, it is analyzed the validity of the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) effect and the effect of interest rate and output level on the inflation rate (IR) in Brazil, Russia, India, China and Turkey (BRIC-T) between the years 1995Q1 and 2022Q4.Design/methodology/approachThe methods such as the panel unit root test developed by Westerlund (2012), the LM bootstrap panel cointegration test developed by Westerlund and Edgerton (2007), the common correlated effects (CCE) estimator developed by Pesaran (2006) and the augmented mean group (AMG) estimator developed by Eberhardt and Bond (2009) that take into account the cross-section dependency are applied for analysis.FindingsAs a result of the findings, it is determined that the ERPT effect is valid in Turkey, Brazil, Russia, India and China and the cost channel is valid only in China. Finally, it is found out that output level positively affects inflation in Turkey, Brazil, Russia, India and China.Practical implicationsAll these results indicate that the economies of Turkey, Russia, Brazil and India have a fragile structure, especially in terms of inflation. Therefore, the central bank of these countries should maintain exchange-rate stability to implement the inflation-targeting strategy successfully. In this context, central bank independence should be increased in these countries in achieving this objective. Also the results indicate that it is still early to consider whether BRIC-T countries and accordingly the Belt and Road Initiative will be an alternative against the domination of the USA and European Union (EU) on international trade system or it will substitute them.Originality/valueIn this study, it is tested that the impact of interest-rate (NIR), exchange-rate (FER) and output level (IPI) on general level of prices. Besides, it is analyzed that whether production level affects the IR. Also, the study investigates the economic issues such as ERPT effect and cost channel. The study analyzes whether China's Belt and Road Initiative is successful or not. In this study, we used the panel data methods that allow for structural breaks and cross-section dependency. For these reasons, this study differs from other studies in the literature both in terms of scope and methods used.
目的本研究分析了 1995Q1 至 2022Q4 期间巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和土耳其(BRIC-T)的汇率传递效应(ERPT)的有效性以及利率和产出水平对通货膨胀率(IR)的影响。设计/方法/途径应用 Westerlund(2012 年)开发的面板单位根检验、Westerlund 和 Edgerton(2007 年)开发的 LM 引导面板协整检验、Pesaran(2006 年)开发的共同相关效应(CCE)估计器以及 Eberhardt 和 Bond(2009 年)开发的考虑到横截面依赖性的增强均值组(AMG)估计器等方法进行分析。研究结果 研究结果表明,ERPT效应在土耳其、巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国有效,而成本渠道仅在中国有效。所有这些结果表明,土耳其、俄罗斯、巴西和印度的经济结构脆弱,尤其是在通货膨胀方面。因此,这些国家的中央银行应保持汇率稳定,以成功实施通货膨胀目标战略。在这种情况下,这些国家应提高中央银行的独立性,以实现这一目标。此外,研究结果表明,金砖四国以及相应的 "一带一路 "倡议是取代美国和欧盟在国际贸易体系中的主导地位,还是取而代之,现在还为时尚早。此外,还分析了生产水平是否影响 IR。本研究还探讨了 ERPT 效应和成本渠道等经济问题。本研究分析了中国的 "一带一路 "倡议是否成功。在本研究中,我们使用了允许结构断裂和横截面依赖的面板数据方法。因此,本研究在研究范围和研究方法上都有别于其他文献。
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引用次数: 0
An investigation on immigration inflows, GDP productivity and knowledge production in selected OECD countries: A panel model analysis 对部分经合组织国家的移民流入、国内生产总值生产率和知识生产的调查:面板模型分析
Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1108/reps-03-2023-0022
Munshi Naser Ibne Afzal, Akash Kalra
PurposeThe purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of pervasive immigrant inflows on GDP productivity growth in selected OECD countries, including Australia, Canada, Germany, Italy, New Zealand and the USA. The study aims to consider patent filing residence and non-residence as well as R&D expenditure to see if large immigrant destination countries can accept many immigrants to generate knowledge and creativity and stimulate economic development.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses OECD and WDI data sets from 2000 to 2019 and employs a fundamental correlation matrix and static panel model to analyze the data. The study examines the impact of residential and non-residential patent applications and R&D expenditure on GDP productivity growth in the selected OECD countries.FindingsThe study found an adverse effect for residential patent applications, while non-residential patent application and R&D expenditure variables were strongly linked to GDP productivity. This indicates that to reap the benefits of skilled immigration inflows, the selected OECD countries must devote more resources to research and development and build a knowledge-based economy. This will improve economic efficiency and overall growth.Originality/valueThis paper assists policymakers in comprehending how to effectively utilize immigration inflows in developed and emerging economies in order to construct a future knowledge-based economic system.
本研究的目的是调查移民的普遍流入对部分经合组织国家(包括澳大利亚、加拿大、德国、意大利、新西兰和美国)国内生产总值生产率增长的影响。研究旨在考虑专利申请的居住地和非居住地以及研发支出,以了解移民大国是否能接受众多移民,从而产生知识和创造力,刺激经济发展。设计/方法/途径本研究使用2000年至2019年的经合组织和世界数据公司数据集,并采用基本相关矩阵和静态面板模型对数据进行分析。研究结果研究发现,住宅专利申请会产生不利影响,而非住宅专利申请和研发支出变量则与GDP生产率密切相关。这表明,为了从技术移民流入中获益,选定的经合组织国家必须将更多资源用于研发,建立知识型经济。本文有助于政策制定者理解如何有效利用发达经济体和新兴经济体的移民流入,以构建未来的知识经济体系。
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引用次数: 0
Does the pattern of ICT possession exacerbate inequality in educational opportunities between students with and without disabilities? Evidence from Egypt 拥有信息和通信技术的模式是否加剧了残疾学生和非残疾学生之间教育机会的不平等?来自埃及的证据
Pub Date : 2024-02-08 DOI: 10.1108/reps-11-2022-0098
Somaya El-Saadani, Soha Metwally, Wafaa Abdelaziz
PurposeThis study aims to analyze to what extent distance education is feasible and efficient with the limited technological infrastructure in Egypt. The study answers this question from the perspective of households' preparedness level regarding possessing information and communication technologies (ICTs). In addition, it assesses whether the pattern of students' ICT ownership is influenced by disability- and socioeconomic-based inequality in education and whether the pattern of ICT ownership exacerbates such biases.Design/methodology/approachA three-stage probit model with double sample selection (PMDSS) was applied to estimate the factors likely to influence ICT possession, considering the selection process for school enrollment and education continuation. The authors utilized nationally representative data from the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey 2018.FindingsAbout 40% of students aged 12–25 did not have ICTs. Most socioeconomically poor households, particularly those living in Upper Egypt, were the least likely to obtain ICTs and rely on distance education. In addition, female students, particularly those with disabilities, had the lowest chance of benefitting from distance learning.Research limitations/implicationsThe persistent structural deprivation of school enrollment and educational progression has led to the positive selection of well-off children in education, which is extended to ICT possession and internet use. Without addressing these structural biases, the study suggests that distance education will likely exacerbate educational inequalities.Originality/valueThe study analyzed the extent to which Egyptian families were prepared in 2018 regarding ICT possessions for distance education for their children, particularly those with disabilities. Furthermore, it investigated whether access to distance learning was influenced by disability- and socioeconomic-based inequalities in education.
目的 本研究旨在分析在埃及技术基础设施有限的情况下,远程教育在多大程度上是可行和有效的。本研究从家庭对拥有信息和通信技术(ICTs)的准备程度角度回答了这一问题。此外,研究还评估了学生拥有信息和通信技术的模式是否受到基于残疾和社会经济原因的教育不平等的影响,以及拥有信息和通信技术的模式是否加剧了这种偏差。 设计/方法/途径 考虑到入学和继续接受教育的选择过程,研究采用了双样本选择三阶段概率模型(PMDSS)来估计可能影响信息和通信技术拥有量的因素。作者利用了 2018 年埃及劳动力市场小组调查中具有全国代表性的数据。研究结果约 40% 的 12-25 岁学生没有信息和通信技术。大多数社会经济贫困家庭,尤其是生活在上埃及的家庭,最不可能获得信息和通信技术,也最不可能依赖远程教育。此外,女学生,特别是残疾学生,从远程教育中受益的机会最少。研究局限性/影响入学和教育进展方面持续存在的结构性贫困导致富裕儿童在教育中的积极选择,并延伸到信息和通信技术的拥有和互联网的使用。如果不解决这些结构性偏差,研究表明远程教育很可能会加剧教育不平等。原创性/价值该研究分析了埃及家庭在 2018 年为其子女(尤其是残疾子女)接受远程教育在信息和通信技术的拥有方面所做的准备程度。此外,研究还调查了远程教育的获得是否受到基于残疾和社会经济的教育不平等的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Does the pattern of ICT possession exacerbate inequality in educational opportunities between students with and without disabilities? Evidence from Egypt 拥有信息和通信技术的模式是否加剧了残疾学生和非残疾学生之间教育机会的不平等?来自埃及的证据
Pub Date : 2024-02-08 DOI: 10.1108/reps-11-2022-0098
Somaya El-Saadani, Soha Metwally, Wafaa Abdelaziz
PurposeThis study aims to analyze to what extent distance education is feasible and efficient with the limited technological infrastructure in Egypt. The study answers this question from the perspective of households' preparedness level regarding possessing information and communication technologies (ICTs). In addition, it assesses whether the pattern of students' ICT ownership is influenced by disability- and socioeconomic-based inequality in education and whether the pattern of ICT ownership exacerbates such biases.Design/methodology/approachA three-stage probit model with double sample selection (PMDSS) was applied to estimate the factors likely to influence ICT possession, considering the selection process for school enrollment and education continuation. The authors utilized nationally representative data from the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey 2018.FindingsAbout 40% of students aged 12–25 did not have ICTs. Most socioeconomically poor households, particularly those living in Upper Egypt, were the least likely to obtain ICTs and rely on distance education. In addition, female students, particularly those with disabilities, had the lowest chance of benefitting from distance learning.Research limitations/implicationsThe persistent structural deprivation of school enrollment and educational progression has led to the positive selection of well-off children in education, which is extended to ICT possession and internet use. Without addressing these structural biases, the study suggests that distance education will likely exacerbate educational inequalities.Originality/valueThe study analyzed the extent to which Egyptian families were prepared in 2018 regarding ICT possessions for distance education for their children, particularly those with disabilities. Furthermore, it investigated whether access to distance learning was influenced by disability- and socioeconomic-based inequalities in education.
目的 本研究旨在分析在埃及技术基础设施有限的情况下,远程教育在多大程度上是可行和有效的。本研究从家庭对拥有信息和通信技术(ICTs)的准备程度角度回答了这一问题。此外,研究还评估了学生拥有信息和通信技术的模式是否受到基于残疾和社会经济原因的教育不平等的影响,以及拥有信息和通信技术的模式是否加剧了这种偏差。 设计/方法/途径 考虑到入学和继续接受教育的选择过程,研究采用了双样本选择三阶段概率模型(PMDSS)来估计可能影响信息和通信技术拥有量的因素。作者利用了 2018 年埃及劳动力市场小组调查中具有全国代表性的数据。研究结果约 40% 的 12-25 岁学生没有信息和通信技术。大多数社会经济贫困家庭,尤其是生活在上埃及的家庭,最不可能获得信息和通信技术,也最不可能依赖远程教育。此外,女学生,特别是残疾学生,从远程教育中受益的机会最少。研究局限性/影响入学和教育进展方面持续存在的结构性贫困导致富裕儿童在教育中的积极选择,并延伸到信息和通信技术的拥有和互联网的使用。如果不解决这些结构性偏差,研究表明远程教育很可能会加剧教育不平等。原创性/价值该研究分析了埃及家庭在 2018 年为其子女(尤其是残疾子女)接受远程教育在信息和通信技术的拥有方面所做的准备程度。此外,研究还调查了远程教育的获得是否受到基于残疾和社会经济的教育不平等的影响。
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引用次数: 0
What are the main drivers of private saving in Egypt? 埃及私人储蓄的主要驱动力是什么?
Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1108/reps-09-2022-0069
Hebatalla Atef Emam
PurposeThis study aims to investigate the main drivers of private saving in Egypt (2005–2020).Design/methodology/approachIt employs an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach for quarterly data on private saving, lagged private saving, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, public saving, inflation, real interest rate, money supply, current account deficit and unemployment.FindingsPrivate saving in Egypt displays persistency and public saving depresses private saving in the short run and long run. Real interest rate, inflation and unemployment have negative and statistically significant impacts on private saving in the short run and long run. The current account deficit displays a negative effect on private saving but is significant only in the short run. Other incorporated variables, like real GDP and money supply, are not statistically significant. This could be attributed to the high consumption rather than saving motive of the Egyptian population and their tendency to rely more on other informal saving channels.Research limitations/implicationsFindings are of policy relevance as unleashing the determinants of private saving guides policymakers in formulating the appropriate sustainable development policies. It also assists in identifying the main obstacles hindering the promotion of private saving and hence major areas for policy intervention, like financial inclusion, poverty eradication, employment generation and structural reforms.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the literature: (1) it tackles private saving figure rather than aggregate saving figure that is covered by similar studies due to lack of consistent data, (2) given the relatively low quality, unavailability and inconsistency of data on private saving in developing countries, investigating the determinants of private saving should be carried out on an individual country basis which is done by this study, (3) this study fulfills the gap in literature related to the lack of up-to-date studies on private saving in Egypt and (4) it relies on quarterly data that could produce more reliable results.
本研究旨在调查埃及私人储蓄的主要驱动因素(2005-2020 年)。本研究采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)方法,对私人储蓄、滞后私人储蓄、实际国内生产总值(GDP)增长、公共储蓄、通货膨胀、实际利率、货币供应、经常账户赤字和失业率的季度数据进行分析。研究结果埃及的私人储蓄具有持续性,公共储蓄在短期和长期内都会抑制私人储蓄。在短期和长期内,实际利率、通货膨胀率和失业率对私人储蓄有负面影响,且在统计上有显著意义。经常账户赤字对私人储蓄有负面影响,但只在短期内显著。其他纳入的变量,如实际国内生产总值和货币供应量,在统计上并不显著。这可能归因于埃及人的高消费而非储蓄动机,以及他们更依赖于其他非正规储蓄渠道的倾向。研究局限性/意义研究结果具有政策相关性,因为揭示私人储蓄的决定因素可指导决策者制定适当的可持续发展政策。它还有助于确定阻碍促进私人储蓄的主要障碍,从而确定政策干预的主要领域,如金融普惠、消除贫困、创造就业和结构改革。独创性/价值 本研究为相关文献做出了贡献:(1)由于缺乏一致的数据,本研究针对的是私人储蓄数据,而不是类似研究中涉及的总储蓄数据;(2)鉴于发展中国家私人储蓄数据的质量相对较低、不可用且不一致,因此应在单个国家的基础上对私人储蓄的决定因素进行调查,而本研究正是这样做的;(3)本研究填补了文献中关于埃及私人储蓄缺乏最新研究的空白;(4)本研究依赖于季度数据,可以得出更可靠的结果。
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引用次数: 0
What are the main drivers of private saving in Egypt? 埃及私人储蓄的主要驱动力是什么?
Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1108/reps-09-2022-0069
Hebatalla Atef Emam
PurposeThis study aims to investigate the main drivers of private saving in Egypt (2005–2020).Design/methodology/approachIt employs an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach for quarterly data on private saving, lagged private saving, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, public saving, inflation, real interest rate, money supply, current account deficit and unemployment.FindingsPrivate saving in Egypt displays persistency and public saving depresses private saving in the short run and long run. Real interest rate, inflation and unemployment have negative and statistically significant impacts on private saving in the short run and long run. The current account deficit displays a negative effect on private saving but is significant only in the short run. Other incorporated variables, like real GDP and money supply, are not statistically significant. This could be attributed to the high consumption rather than saving motive of the Egyptian population and their tendency to rely more on other informal saving channels.Research limitations/implicationsFindings are of policy relevance as unleashing the determinants of private saving guides policymakers in formulating the appropriate sustainable development policies. It also assists in identifying the main obstacles hindering the promotion of private saving and hence major areas for policy intervention, like financial inclusion, poverty eradication, employment generation and structural reforms.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the literature: (1) it tackles private saving figure rather than aggregate saving figure that is covered by similar studies due to lack of consistent data, (2) given the relatively low quality, unavailability and inconsistency of data on private saving in developing countries, investigating the determinants of private saving should be carried out on an individual country basis which is done by this study, (3) this study fulfills the gap in literature related to the lack of up-to-date studies on private saving in Egypt and (4) it relies on quarterly data that could produce more reliable results.
本研究旨在调查埃及私人储蓄的主要驱动因素(2005-2020 年)。本研究采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)方法,对私人储蓄、滞后私人储蓄、实际国内生产总值(GDP)增长、公共储蓄、通货膨胀、实际利率、货币供应、经常账户赤字和失业率的季度数据进行分析。研究结果埃及的私人储蓄具有持续性,公共储蓄在短期和长期内都会抑制私人储蓄。在短期和长期内,实际利率、通货膨胀率和失业率对私人储蓄有负面影响,且在统计上有显著意义。经常账户赤字对私人储蓄有负面影响,但只在短期内显著。其他纳入的变量,如实际国内生产总值和货币供应量,在统计上并不显著。这可能归因于埃及人的高消费而非储蓄动机,以及他们更依赖于其他非正规储蓄渠道的倾向。研究局限性/意义研究结果具有政策相关性,因为揭示私人储蓄的决定因素可指导决策者制定适当的可持续发展政策。它还有助于确定阻碍促进私人储蓄的主要障碍,从而确定政策干预的主要领域,如金融普惠、消除贫困、创造就业和结构改革。独创性/价值 本研究为相关文献做出了贡献:(1)由于缺乏一致的数据,本研究针对的是私人储蓄数据,而不是类似研究中涉及的总储蓄数据;(2)鉴于发展中国家私人储蓄数据的质量相对较低、不可用且不一致,因此应在单个国家的基础上对私人储蓄的决定因素进行调查,而本研究正是这样做的;(3)本研究填补了文献中关于埃及私人储蓄缺乏最新研究的空白;(4)本研究依赖于季度数据,可以得出更可靠的结果。
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引用次数: 0
Mental health in selected MENA countries during COVID-19: an empirical investigation 某些中东和北非国家在 COVID-19 期间的心理健康:实证调查
Pub Date : 2024-01-24 DOI: 10.1108/reps-06-2023-0050
P. Fikry
PurposeThe outbreak of COVID-19 not only had serious negative impacts on the world economy but also on the global mental health because of the psychological disorders associated with the spread of the pandemic, the increased degree of uncertainty and the unprecedented measures taken by different countries to face the pandemic’s spread. This paper analyses the mental health well-being of individuals in selected MENA countries (Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt) during the pandemic.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs a pooled OLS model using the Economic Research Forum (ERF) COVID-19 MENA Monitor Survey panel dataset collected during 2020 and 2021.FindingsThe findings show that there is no association between the mental health of individuals in the selected countries and their age, gender, family size, marital status, receipt of social support and participation in care work. Mental health improved at higher levels of education, being employed, being a rural area resident and living in Morocco or Tunisia compared to living in Jordan while it worsened as income declined, food insecurity and anxiety about being infected with Covid-19 increased, being a resident in camps, and during waves 4 and 5. Based on these results, it is recommended that suitable financial, physical and human resources should be directed towards the provision of mental health care services in the region. Also, mental health care services should be accessible to different population groups, with a special focus towards the most vulnerable since they are more prone to mental illnesses, especially during health crises and economic shocks. This should be accompanied by increasing awareness about the provided services and reducing stigma against mental illnesses. Furthermore, introduction of policies targeted towards reducing food insecurity and income instability can play a key role in enhancing mental well-being.Originality/valueAlthough few papers have previously investigated the impact of COVID-19 on mental health in MENA countries, most of them have focused on a country-level analysis and adopted a gender perspective. Hence, this paper aims at exploring the association between mental health well-being and socio-economic factors in selected MENA countries during the pandemic.
目的 COVID-19 的爆发不仅对世界经济造成了严重的负面影响,而且还对全球心理健康造成了严重影响,因为大流行病的传播导致了心理障碍,增加了不确定性,而且不同国家为应对大流行病的传播采取了前所未有的措施。本文分析了部分中东和北非国家(约旦、摩洛哥、突尼斯和埃及)的个人在大流行病期间的心理健康情况。研究采用了一个集合 OLS 模型,该模型使用了 2020 年和 2021 年期间收集的经济研究论坛(ERF)COVID-19 中东和北非监测调查面板数据集。与生活在约旦的人相比,受教育程度较高、有工作、居住在农村地区、生活在摩洛哥或突尼斯的人的心理健康状况有所改善,而随着收入减少、粮食不安全和对感染 Covid-19 的焦虑增加、居住在难民营以及在第 4 波和第 5 波期间,心理健康状况有所恶化。根据上述结果,建议将适当的财力、物力和人力资源用于在该地区提供心理保健服务。此外,应为不同人群提供心理保健服务,尤其要关注最弱势人群,因为他们更容易患上精神疾病,尤其是在健康危机和经济冲击期间。与此同时,还应提高人们对所提供服务的认识,减少对精神疾病的偏见。此外,出台旨在减少粮食不安全和收入不稳定的政策,也能在提高精神健康方面发挥关键作用。 原创性/价值虽然此前很少有论文调查 COVID-19 对中东和北非国家精神健康的影响,但大多数论文都侧重于国家层面的分析,并采用了性别视角。因此,本文旨在探讨大流行期间某些中东和北非国家的心理健康与社会经济因素之间的关联。
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引用次数: 0
Social and economic determinants of electoral behavior in Turkey 土耳其选举行为的社会和经济决定因素
Pub Date : 2024-01-19 DOI: 10.1108/reps-07-2023-0084
Ozge Kozal, Mehmet Karacuka, Justus Haucap
PurposeIn this study the authors aim to comprehensively investigate the determinants of voting behavior in Turkey, with a specific focus on the dynamics of the center-periphery debate. Mainly, the authors focus on regional voting patterns during the period that is dominated by the Justice and Development Party (JDP/AKP) in the elections. The authors apply the random effects generalized least squares (GLS) methodology, and analyze electoral data covering four pivotal parliamentary elections (2007, 2011, 2015 and 2018) across all 81 provinces (NUTS III regions). The authors individually examine voting dynamics of the four major parties in parliament: the JDP/AKP, the Republican People's Party (RPP/CHP), the Nationalist Movement Party (NMP/MHP) and the Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP/HDP). The authors contribute to a comprehensive understanding of how socioeconomic cleavages, economic performance, party alignment and social dynamics shape voter preferences in the Turkish context, thereby addressing gaps in the existing literature.Design/methodology/approachThis research employs an ecological study of Turkish NUTS III sub-regions, covering national elections from 2007 to 2018. The authors utilize the random effects GLS method to account for heteroscedasticity and time effects. The inclusion of the June and November 2015 elections enables a comprehensive analysis of the evolving dynamics in Turkish voting behavior. The results remain robust when applying pooled OLS and fixed effect OLS techniques for control.FindingsThe study's findings reveal that economic performance, specifically economic growth, plays a pivotal role in the sustained dominance of the JDP/AKP party. Voters closely associate JDP preference with economic growth, resulting in higher voting shares during periods of economic prosperity. Along with economic growth; share of agriculture in regions' GDP, female illiteracy rate, old population rate, net domestic migration, terrorism and party alignment are also influential factors in the Turkish case. Furthermore, differences among sociocultural groups, and East–West dichotomy seem to be important factors that reveal the impact of social cleavages to understand electoral choice in Turkey.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the existing literature by offering a comprehensive multidimensional analysis of electoral behavior in Turkey, focusing on the JDP/AKP dominance period. The main contribution of this study is its multidimensional perspective on the power bases of all main parties, considering key voter choice theories (cleavages, party alignment and retrospective economic performance voting) that have not been systematically analyzed in prior research. The main research question of this study is to examine which factors affect voting behavior in Turkey and how the dynamics of center-periphery or eastern-western region voting behavior under the JDP hegemony can be explained. The contribution of this study consists not only in its empi
目的在本研究中,作者旨在全面调查土耳其投票行为的决定因素,并特别关注中心-边缘辩论的动态。作者主要关注正义与发展党(JDP/AKP)主导选举期间的地区投票模式。作者采用随机效应广义最小二乘法(GLS)方法,分析了涵盖所有 81 个省(NUTS III 地区)的四次关键议会选举(2007、2011、2015 和 2018 年)的选举数据。作者分别考察了议会中四个主要政党的投票动态:日本民主党/韩国人民党、共和人民党/中国共产党、民族主义运动党(NMP/MHP)和人民民主党(PDP/HDP)。作者致力于全面了解土耳其背景下的社会经济裂痕、经济表现、政党结盟和社会动态如何影响选民偏好,从而弥补现有文献的不足。作者利用随机效应 GLS 方法来考虑异方差和时间效应。通过纳入 2015 年 6 月和 11 月的选举,可以全面分析土耳其投票行为不断变化的动态。当采用集合 OLS 和固定效应 OLS 技术进行控制时,结果仍然是稳健的。研究结果研究结果显示,经济表现,特别是经济增长,在 JDP/AKP 党的持续主导地位中发挥了关键作用。选民将日本民主党的偏好与经济增长紧密联系在一起,从而在经济繁荣时期获得更高的投票率。除经济增长外,农业在地区 GDP 中的份额、女性文盲率、老龄人口比率、国内净移民、恐怖主义和政党结盟也是土耳其的影响因素。此外,社会文化群体之间的差异以及东西方二分法似乎也是揭示社会裂痕对理解土耳其选举选择影响的重要因素。 原创性/价值 本研究通过对土耳其选举行为进行全面的多维分析,对现有文献做出了贡献,重点研究了联合民主党/人民党占主导地位时期的选举行为。本研究的主要贡献在于从多维角度分析了所有主要政党的权力基础,并考虑了以往研究中未系统分析过的关键选民选择理论(分裂、政党结盟和经济表现回溯投票)。本研究的主要问题是探讨哪些因素会影响土耳其的投票行为,以及如何解释联合民主党霸权下的中心-外围或东部-西部地区投票行为的动态变化。本研究的贡献不仅在于对面板数据方法进行了实证检验,还在于对四个主要政党进行了全面分析。在现有文献研究的基础上,本研究试图通过对议会中四个主要政党--日本民主党/韩国人民党、人民党/中央政治局、全国人民运动委员会/马其顿人民党和人民民主党/乌兹别克民主党--的投票动态进行逐一研究,从而扩展对这些政党投票动态的理解,从而扩大以往研究的范围。本研究不仅对面板数据方法进行了实证检验,还对四大政党进行了全面分析,旨在为本研究做出贡献。此外,本研究还单独纳入了 2015 年选举,并采用了面板数据方法,通过捕捉土耳其投票行为不断变化的动态,丰富了分析内容。研究强调了社会经济因素、经济表现和社会裂痕对选民在主导政党统治背景下做出选择的重要性。
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Review of Economics and Political Science
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