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Tracking decarbonization of multilateral development banks' electricity generation investments. 跟踪多边开发银行发电投资的脱碳情况。
Pub Date : 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.crsus.2025.100584
Florian Egli, Clemens-Maria Lehofer, Nadine Palmowski, Tim Büthe, Bjarne Steffen, Tobias S Schmidt

Multilateral development banks' (MDBs) commitment to the Paris Agreement (PA) was expected to induce a shift from fossil fuel-based to sustainable energy sources in the Global South. However, we lack a comprehensive analysis of their electricity generation portfolios and internal policies since then. This paper presents two new datasets on 1,230 electricity generation investments and 215 decarbonization policies adopted by all MDBs from 2006 to 2020. We find a continued decline in fossil fuel investment since the PA but no change in pace. The volume of investment in renewables (including hydropower) has not increased enough to compensate for the phaseout, resulting in a downward trend in MDB electricity generation investments over time. The number of renewable projects funded by MDBs, however, has substantially grown. These findings raise concerns about MDBs' ability to scale up clean electricity investments, particularly in low-income countries, where the energy investment gap continues to grow.

多边开发银行(mdb)对《巴黎协定》(PA)的承诺有望促使全球南方国家从化石燃料转向可持续能源。然而,我们缺乏对其发电组合和内部政策的全面分析。本文介绍了2006年至2020年期间所有多边开发银行采用的1230项发电投资和215项脱碳政策的两个新数据集。我们发现,自PA以来,化石燃料投资持续下降,但速度没有变化。可再生能源(包括水电)的投资额没有增加到足以弥补淘汰的程度,导致多边开发银行发电投资随着时间的推移呈下降趋势。然而,多边开发银行资助的可再生能源项目数量大幅增加。这些发现令人担忧多边开发银行扩大清洁电力投资的能力,特别是在能源投资差距持续扩大的低收入国家。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring public risk perception of multiple hazards through network analysis. 通过网络分析探讨公众对多重危害的风险认知。
Pub Date : 2025-07-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.crsus.2025.100424
Blanca Paniello-Castillo, Federico Triolo, Sarah Dryhurst, Owen A Taylor, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Jasmine Khouja, Marcus Munafò, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Elena Raffetti

Humans face various hazards, making it challenging to apply a precautionary approach to all of them. Instead, individuals prioritize risk reduction based on perceived threats and lived experiences, often considering multiple hazards simultaneously. This study explores how public perceptions of multiple hazards are interconnected and change over time in Italy and Sweden, using data from three representative surveys (n = 12,476) conducted in August 2020, November 2020, and August 2021. We assess risk perception across three dimensions (likelihood, impact, and authority knowledge) for nine hazards, including epidemics, climate change, and natural disasters. Findings reveal that recently encountered hazards, such as COVID-19, become more closely connected to other hazards. At the same time, connections among hazards such as wildfires, droughts, and floods remain stable over time. These results indicate a dual component of public risk perception of multiple hazards, offering valuable insights for shaping public health policies and climate adaptation strategies.

人类面临着各种各样的危险,因此很难对所有这些危险采取预防措施。相反,个人根据感知到的威胁和生活经历来优先考虑降低风险,通常同时考虑多种危险。本研究利用分别于2020年8月、2020年11月和2021年8月进行的三次代表性调查(n = 12476)的数据,探讨了意大利和瑞典公众对多种危害的看法是如何相互关联并随时间变化的。我们从三个维度(可能性、影响和权威知识)评估九种危害的风险感知,包括流行病、气候变化和自然灾害。调查结果显示,最近遇到的危害,如COVID-19,与其他危害的联系更加紧密。与此同时,野火、干旱和洪水等灾害之间的联系随着时间的推移保持稳定。这些结果表明,公众对多种危害的风险感知存在双重成分,为制定公共卫生政策和气候适应战略提供了有价值的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Barriers to quantifying human alterations of global floodplains and how we can overcome them. 量化人类对全球洪泛平原变化的障碍以及我们如何克服这些障碍。
Pub Date : 2025-07-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.crsus.2025.100433
Adnan Rajib, Charles R Lane, Ryan R Morrison, M Rezaul Haider, Qianjin Zheng, Heather E Golden, Ellen E Wohl, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Jay R Christensen

The world's natural floodplains are being lost and degraded by human alterations. The lack of standardized data for quantifying these floodplain alterations, as well as the absence of convergence among data, analysis, and approaches, has led to significant uncertainty. We discover four primary barriers contributing to this problem: (1) discrepancies in defining floodplain alterations, (2) inconsistent floodplain boundaries, (3) insufficient use of data (e.g., over-reliance on population density), and (4) mismatches in the spatial resolution and scale of analyses (e.g., aggregated across basins or countries using temporally fragmented, short-duration data). As the first step to overcome these barriers, we recommend benchmarking global floodplains using high-resolution land-use data and indices of human disturbance and by integrating existing dams and levees within floodplain maps, establishing a global reference floodplain status from which alterations and critical change points can be continuously tracked. We advocate for a new socio-ecohydrological model of floodplain management-one that redefines human alterations by considering both structural changes and functional losses within a balanced framework of benefits and trade-offs.

由于人类的改变,世界上的天然洪泛平原正在消失和退化。由于缺乏量化这些洪泛区变化的标准化数据,以及数据、分析和方法之间缺乏一致性,导致了重大的不确定性。我们发现了导致这一问题的四个主要障碍:(1)定义洪泛区变化的差异;(2)洪泛区边界不一致;(3)数据使用不足(例如,过度依赖人口密度);(4)分析的空间分辨率和规模不匹配(例如,使用时间分散的短持续时间数据跨流域或国家汇总)。作为克服这些障碍的第一步,我们建议使用高分辨率土地利用数据和人为干扰指数对全球洪泛区进行基准测试,并将现有水坝和堤防整合到洪泛区地图中,建立全球参考洪泛区状态,从而可以连续跟踪变化和关键变化点。我们提倡一种新的洪泛区管理的社会生态水文模型,该模型通过在利益和权衡的平衡框架内考虑结构变化和功能损失来重新定义人类的变化。
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引用次数: 0
Urban agriculture matters for sustainable development. 城市农业事关可持续发展。
Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.crsus.2024.100217
Prajal Pradhan, Daya Raj Subedi, Kshitij Dahal, Yuanchao Hu, Prakriti Gurung, Sijal Pokharel, Sagar Kafle, Biplav Khatri, Sudeeksha Basyal, Monika Gurung, Aruna Joshi

Urban agriculture can contribute to sustainable development. However, a holistic investigation is lacking to comprehend its positive and negative impacts on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Our systematic analysis of around 1,450 relevant publications on urban agriculture, screened from 76,000 records, fills this gap. We map and analyze the text in the literature for each SDG target and its associated positive or negative sentiments. Here, we report our results highlighting that urban agriculture is linked to all SDGs, with 142 and 136 targets having positive and negative sentiments. The mapped positive sentiments are around double the negative ones. We identify six leveraging opportunities urban agriculture provides for sustainable transformation with four hurdles to be resolved. Urban agriculture does not inherently contribute to sustainability. Its impacts rely on the adoption of specific practices. Realizing urban agriculture's social, economic, and environmental functions to accelerate SDG progress requires tackling the hurdles.

城市农业有助于可持续发展。然而,目前还缺乏全面的调查,以了解其对可持续发展目标(SDGs)的积极和消极影响。我们对从 76,000 条记录中筛选出的约 1,450 篇有关都市农业的相关出版物进行了系统分析,填补了这一空白。我们绘制并分析了每项可持续发展目标的文献文本及其相关的积极或消极情感。在此,我们报告了我们的结果,其中强调了城市农业与所有可持续发展目标的联系,分别有 142 和 136 个目标具有积极和消极情感。所映射的积极情感约为消极情感的两倍。我们确定了都市农业为可持续转型提供的六个杠杆机会,以及需要解决的四个障碍。都市农业本身并不有助于可持续发展。它的影响取决于具体做法的采用。要实现都市农业的社会、经济和环境功能,加快可持续发展目标的进展,就必须克服这些障碍。
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引用次数: 0
Lower margins are tied to companies' climate performance rather than to low-carbon assets. 较低的利润率与公司的气候绩效挂钩,而不是与低碳资产挂钩。
Pub Date : 2024-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.crsus.2024.100155
Marie Fricaudet, Sophia Parker, Nadia Ameli, Tristan Smith

Lenders are likely to face significant financial risks from the shift to a low-carbon economy, but it remains unclear whether such risks are incorporated into their lending practices. The extent of this risk depends on whether banks incorporate such risks into their lending activity and whether financial instruments' tenors are long enough to cover the period when such risks materialize. Using a case study of shipping loans, we combine quantitative data and semi-structured interviews with key shipping debt providers. Our results show that banks, in particular signatories of the Poseidon Principles, a voluntary disclosure initiative in shipping, have started to price in the climate score of shipowners they lend to after the Paris Agreement but on a corporate rather than an asset basis. However, signatories do not differentiate their margins based on a ship's carbon intensity, despite a relatively long loan maturity, reinforcing the limitations of disclosure initiatives to influence investment outlays.

在向低碳经济转变的过程中,贷款人可能会面临巨大的金融风险,但目前尚不清楚这些风险是否已被纳入其贷款行为中。这种风险的程度取决于银行是否将这种风险纳入其贷款活动,以及金融工具的期限是否足够长以涵盖这种风险显现的时期。通过对航运贷款的案例研究,我们结合了定量数据和对主要航运债务提供者的半结构化访谈。我们的研究结果表明,在《巴黎协定》签署后,银行,尤其是航运业自愿披露倡议 "波塞冬原则 "的签署方,已开始对其贷款船东的气候得分进行定价,但以企业而非资产为基础。然而,尽管贷款期限相对较长,但签署方并没有根据船舶的碳强度来区分其利润率,这加强了披露倡议在影响投资支出方面的局限性。
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引用次数: 0
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Cell reports sustainability
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