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Fragmented Politics in Hong Kong-Analyzing the Pro-democracy Cohesion in the Legislative Council Before 2019. 香港政治的碎片化——分析2019年前立法会的民主派凝聚力。
IF 0.6 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-04-08 DOI: 10.1007/s12140-021-09362-1
Fung Chan

This study is to analyze how the fragmentation of the pro-democracy camp affected their council voting and policy stances before 2019. The quantitative measurements including the rice and unity indices are adopted to evaluate the cohesions of the pro-Beijing and pro-democracy camps in bill voting, in which the strategies employed by the pro-democracy camp are further analyzed. Before the 2010s, the moderate democrats deliberately separated from the administration and some of them also kept distance from the radical groups. However, since the radical ideologies gained supports from time to time, the moderate democrats had been forced to follow more pro-active lines against the administration. Although the political sphere of Hong Kong has drastically changed after the 2019 Anti-extradition Protests, the cohesion of the pro-democracy parties in the previous terms of the Legislative Council still facilitates to understand the legislative process in the city. In this article, 18 then members of the Legislative Council from different parties were interviewed in 2018, providing various insights on the analysis of pro-democracy cohesion and fragmented politics in Hong Kong.

本研究旨在分析亲民主阵营的分裂如何影响他们在2019年之前的议会投票和政策立场。采用大米指数和统一性指数等定量测度方法,对亲北京派和亲民主派在法案表决中的凝聚力进行了评价,并进一步分析了亲北京派在法案表决中所采取的策略。在2010年代之前,温和的民主党人故意与政府分离,其中一些人也与激进团体保持距离。然而,由于激进的意识形态不时得到支持,温和的民主人士被迫采取更积极的路线来反对政府。尽管香港的政治领域在2019年“反引渡”抗议活动后发生了巨大变化,但前几届立法会中民主派政党的凝聚力仍然有助于理解香港的立法程序。本文采访了2018年18位来自不同党派的时任立法会议员,为分析香港的亲民主凝聚力和政治碎片化提供了不同的见解。
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引用次数: 1
Chinese Influence in Australia: What Do Financial Markets Tell Us? 中国对澳大利亚的影响:金融市场告诉我们什么?
IF 0.6 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Epub Date: 2020-09-07 DOI: 10.1007/s12140-020-09346-7
Kerry Liu

Australia-China relations, and especially Chinese influence in Australia, have been the subject of heated debate in Australia since 2016. The central issue is, how to balance concerns over Chinese influence in Australia with the economic benefits of Chinese trade and investment? This study-arguably the first of its kind-answers this question using rigorous empirical modelling. First, it uses Google Trends search results to measure Chinese influence in Australia. Second, it connects Chinese influence, as reflected in Google Trends search results, to financial markets, including stock markets, government bond markets and foreign exchange markets. Weekly data for January 2016-December 2019 are entered into an exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic model. The study finds that the effects of concerns over Chinese influence relate mainly to increased volatility of stock market indices and government bond yields, and downward pressure on the share prices of individual firms that are heavily exposed to Chinese markets. However, the overall effects appear to be minor or insignificant. The implications of these results are that China's economic coercion (if any) may not be effective, and Australia's responses to Chinese influence and interference (if any) may generate insignificant costs. Finally, this study makes original and significant academic contributions to academia by providing a novel framework for exploring international relations.

自2016年以来,澳中关系,特别是中国在澳的影响力一直是澳大利亚国内热议的话题。核心问题是,如何平衡对中国在澳影响力的担忧与中国贸易和投资带来的经济效益?这项研究——可以说是同类研究中的第一次——用严格的经验模型回答了这个问题。首先,它使用谷歌趋势搜索结果来衡量中国在澳大利亚的影响力。其次,正如谷歌趋势搜索结果所反映的那样,它将中国的影响力与金融市场联系起来,包括股票市场、政府债券市场和外汇市场。2016年1月至2019年12月的每周数据输入到指数广义自回归条件异方差模型中。研究发现,对中国影响力的担忧的影响主要与股票市场指数和政府债券收益率的波动性增加以及对大量暴露于中国市场的个别公司股价的下行压力有关。然而,总体影响似乎是次要的或微不足道的。这些结果的含义是,中国的经济胁迫(如果有的话)可能不会有效,澳大利亚对中国影响和干涉(如果有的话)的反应可能会产生微不足道的成本。最后,本研究为研究国际关系提供了一个新颖的框架,为学术界做出了原创性和重大的学术贡献。
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引用次数: 6
A Friend in Need? The Sino-Russian Relationship Under the Coronavirus Crisis in Twitter: a Russian Perspective. 患难中的朋友?推特上冠状病毒危机下的中俄关系:俄罗斯视角
IF 0.6 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-04-15 DOI: 10.1007/s12140-021-09361-2
Maria Mary Papageorgiou, Alena Vieira

The paper focuses on the COVID-19 as a stress test to the Sino-Russian strategic partnership: has it driven Russia and China closer together, farther apart, or made no difference? Employing content analysis of official Russian discourse as expressed by the Kremlin, the Government, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), both via their official web pages (104 online publications) and Twitter accounts (260 tweets), this study focuses on the Russian twiplomacy as a more suitable mean to reflect the real-time changes of an evolving crisis. The analysis demonstrates that the Sino-Russian relationship extends beyond the "axis of convenience." It does not, however, correspond to the support expected from a consolidated (comprehensive) strategic partnership, nor does it achieve the intensity of soft balancing (vis-à-vis the USA) in a particularly polarized and politicized international context.

新冠肺炎疫情是对中俄战略伙伴关系的压力测试,是拉近了两国关系,还是疏远了两国关系,还是没有关系?通过对克里姆林宫、政府和外交部(MFA)通过其官方网页(104份在线出版物)和Twitter账户(260条推文)表达的俄罗斯官方话语进行内容分析,本研究将重点放在俄罗斯外交上,认为这是一种更适合反映不断演变的危机的实时变化的手段。分析表明,中俄关系超越了“便利轴”。然而,它并不符合一个巩固的(全面的)战略伙伴关系所期望的支持,也没有在一个特别两极分化和政治化的国际背景下实现软平衡的强度(对-à-vis美国)。
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引用次数: 7
Asymmetry Theory and China-Philippines Relations with the South China Sea as a Case. 不对称理论与中菲关系——以南海为例
IF 0.6 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-06-22 DOI: 10.1007/s12140-021-09370-1
Amane Yamazaki, Suguru Osawa

This article analyzes how the structural factor of asymmetry affects China's relations with a small power. As the studies of Brantly Womack suggest, asymmetry theory is conducive to deepening the understanding of China's relations with smaller countries. We argue that an examination of China-Philippines relations from 2010 to 2020 indicates that Beijing has trouble managing its ties with Manila because of the asymmetry in the nature of the relations, which originates in the power and status gaps between them. The asymmetrical structure of this bilateral interplay inclines China to underestimate and neglect the Philippines' intentions and determination to resist, which has been made especially clear in the South China Sea disputes. As a result, their relationship experienced repeated ups and downs throughout the 2010s, in particular over the maritime sovereignty issue. This study also hints at the complicated situations surrounding China where many medium-sized and small states attempt to maneuver among great powers. Without affinities with such governments in the Indo-Pacific region, it will be difficult for Beijing to achieve a peaceful rise and acquire status as a next-generation superpower.

本文分析了不对称的结构性因素如何影响中国与小大国的关系。正如布兰特利·沃马克(Brantly Womack)的研究表明,不对称理论有助于加深对中国与小国关系的理解。我们认为,对2010年至2020年中菲关系的研究表明,由于两国关系本质上的不对称,北京在处理与马尼拉的关系方面遇到了麻烦,这种不对称源于两国之间的权力和地位差距。这种双边相互作用的不对称结构使中国倾向于低估和忽视菲律宾抵抗的意图和决心,这在南中国海争端中表现得尤为明显。因此,两国关系在2010年代经历了反复的起伏,特别是在海洋主权问题上。这一研究也暗示了中国周围的复杂情况,许多中小国家试图在大国之间游弋。如果没有与这些国家的亲缘关系,中国将很难实现和平崛起,成为下一代超级大国。
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引用次数: 3
A Cohort Analysis on the Career Life Cycles of Players of the LPGA of Japan Tour. 日本LPGA选手职业生涯周期的队列分析。
IF 0.6 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-01-25 DOI: 10.1007/s12140-020-09354-7
Eui Hang Shin

The purpose of this study is to investigate the patterns of professional career paths of the players of the Ladies Professional Golf Association of Japan (JLPGA) Tour. Using the athletes' professional career life cycle model as the theoretical framework, this study will analyze the career development of elite players of the JLPGA from their rookie year to the point of retirement. The year of each JLPGA tournament win by selected players will be examined for the players' entire careers. The players' money ranking for each year of their careers is also analyzed to determine the stages of the players' career life cycles. The tournament win span, i.e., the number of years between a player's first and last JLPGA tournament win, will be computed. The career life cycles of players of different cohorts will be compared to determine whether or not there was any transformation in the structure of career stages of the players over time. The career development patterns of Japanese-born players will be compared with those of the international players of the JLPGA.

本研究旨在探讨日本女子职业高尔夫协会(JLPGA)巡回赛选手的职业生涯路径模式。本研究以运动员职业生涯生命周期模型为理论框架,分析JLPGA优秀选手从新秀赛季到退役阶段的职业发展。被选中的球员在每次JLPGA锦标赛中获胜的年份将会在球员的整个职业生涯中进行审查。球员在职业生涯中每年的收入排名也被分析,以确定球员职业生涯生命周期的阶段。比赛胜利跨度,即球员的第一次和最后一次JLPGA锦标赛胜利之间的年数,将被计算。将比较不同队列球员的职业生涯周期,以确定球员的职业生涯阶段结构是否随着时间的推移而发生变化。日本选手的职业发展模式将与JLPGA的国际选手进行比较。
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引用次数: 1
Discourse of the Post-COVID 19 New Deal in South Korea. 韩国后新冠肺炎新政的话语。
IF 0.6 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-04-19 DOI: 10.1007/s12140-021-09363-0
Kyong Yoon

In July 2020, the South Korean government announced a 5-year, post-pandemic plan. This purportedly proactive policy aimed to advance digital and green industries to lay the groundwork for the post-pandemic era. This article examines the South Korean government's early proposal of a post-pandemic policy, titled the Korean New Deal, in order to explore how the pandemic crisis may affect the policymakers' envisioning of the post-crisis society. Moreover, the study examines how this early predictive plan may reveal the ways in which the pandemic is utilized for discursive politics. Drawing on the critical discourse analysis of policy documents and news coverage, this article questions how the "old" language of the developmental state is incorporated into the "new" policy. The study also shows how COVID-19's impacts and uncertainties are translated into political discourses.

2020年7月,韩国政府宣布了一项大流行后的5年计划。这一积极的政策旨在推进数字和绿色产业,为后大流行时代奠定基础。本文分析了韩国政府早期提出的大流行后政策,即“韩国新政”,以探讨大流行危机如何影响决策者对后危机社会的设想。此外,该研究还探讨了这一早期预测计划可能如何揭示大流行被用于话语政治的方式。本文通过对政策文件和新闻报道的批判性话语分析,对发展中国家的“旧”语言如何被纳入“新”政策提出了质疑。该研究还显示了COVID-19的影响和不确定性如何转化为政治话语。
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引用次数: 7
China's Influence in Asia: How Do Individual Perceptions Matter? 中国在亚洲的影响:个人看法如何重要?
IF 0.6 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-01-01 Epub Date: 2020-06-02 DOI: 10.1007/s12140-020-09334-x
Jinrui Xi, Christopher Primiano

Taking pride in the vibrancy and transparency of democracy, countries such as the USA have prioritized the spread of democracy in its foreign policy. The admirable impact that this political agenda has garnered across the globe pushes us to ponder what China would offer as it aspires for a more prominent position on the international stage. Particularly, how would China foster its image in Asia and, as a result, earn a favorable voice and even all-out support from Asian countries, countries economically underdeveloped and politically volatile? This paper sets out to answer this question by critiquing whether or not popular perceptions of China's political system impact how Asians perceive China's influence in general. Conducting statistical analysis using the fourth wave of Asian Barometer Survey (2016) to assess the above argument, we find that Asians who lend their support for China are more keen to the economic opportunities that China's growing economy offers their country than they are of China's political system. In short, China's authoritarian regime type does not factor into Asians' perception of China, except when individuals are highly educated with and committed to democratic principles.

美国等国家以民主的活力和透明度为傲,在外交政策中优先考虑民主的传播。这一政治议程在全球范围内产生的令人钦佩的影响促使我们思考,当中国渴望在国际舞台上获得更突出的地位时,它将提供什么。特别是,中国如何在亚洲树立自己的形象,从而赢得亚洲国家、经济不发达国家和政治不稳定国家的好感,甚至全力支持?本文试图通过评论大众对中国政治制度的看法是否会影响亚洲人对中国总体影响力的看法来回答这个问题。使用第四波亚洲晴雨表调查(2016)进行统计分析来评估上述论点,我们发现,支持中国的亚洲人更热衷于中国不断增长的经济为他们的国家提供的经济机会,而不是中国的政治制度。简而言之,中国的专制政权类型不会影响亚洲人对中国的看法,除非个人受过高等教育并致力于民主原则。
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引用次数: 5
The Blurred Boundaries Between Budget Transparency and State Secrecy: a Survey of Three Departments Across 36 Chinese Municipalities. 预算透明与国家保密的模糊界限:对中国36个直辖市3个部门的调查。
IF 0.6 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-01-01 Epub Date: 2020-08-19 DOI: 10.1007/s12140-020-09345-8
Longjin Chen, Junling Zhang

The tension between ensuring open government information and maintaining national security is a widespread problem around the world. This study focuses on the disclosure of budgetary information and its tension with vaguely defined state secrecy requirements in the Chinese context. Through a survey of three government departments that potentially involve state secrets across 36 Chinese municipalities, we find that there exists no consensus on whether to make budgetary information public, even for the same department across different jurisdictions. In addition, departments that chose disclosure vary considerably in the scope and depth of their transparency. Without having the boundaries clarified by law, disclosure by request, as a supplemental behavior to proactive disclosure, can rarely be successful. Our findings suggest that future legislation ought to clarify the legitimate scope of restrictions on budget transparency on the grounds of state secrecy.

确保政府信息公开与维护国家安全之间的紧张关系是世界各地普遍存在的问题。本研究主要关注中国背景下预算信息的披露及其与模糊的国家保密要求之间的紧张关系。通过对中国36个直辖市的三个可能涉及国家机密的政府部门的调查,我们发现,对于是否公开预算信息,即使是不同司法管辖区的同一部门,也没有达成共识。此外,选择公开的部门在透明度的范围和深度上差别很大。如果没有法律明确的界限,作为主动披露的补充行为,请求披露很少能成功。我们的研究结果表明,未来的立法应该明确以国家保密为理由限制预算透明度的合法范围。
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引用次数: 0
Women's International War Crimes Tribunal on Japan's military sexual slavery: memory, identity, and society. 日本军慰安妇问题妇女国际战争罪法庭:记忆、身份与社会。
IF 0.6 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2001-01-01 DOI: 10.1007/s12140-001-0020-2
Y Matsui
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引用次数: 17
Fighting over the reinterpretation of the Mongolian woman in Mongolia's post-socialist identity construction discourse. 蒙古后社会主义身份建构话语中对蒙古女性的重新诠释之争。
IF 0.6 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2001-01-01 DOI: 10.1007/s12140-001-0012-2
U Tumursukh
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引用次数: 19
期刊
East Asia
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