Pub Date : 2021-08-02DOI: 10.4236/ajcc.2021.103015
O. Bazhenova, E. Tyumentseva
Predictive assessments of the geomorphological systems’ behavior under climate warming in southern Siberia have been performed based on time-series data, using theoretical and empirical models of processes. High sensitivity and fast response of erosional, aeolian, and cryogenic processes to current climatic changes are presented. The current trends under changing functioning conditions of geomorphological systems while maintaining climatic trends have been determined. Areas with different targeting of morpholithogenesis are identified.
{"title":"The Impact of Current Climate Changes on Morphodynamic Regimes of Steppes and Forest Steppes in Southern Siberia","authors":"O. Bazhenova, E. Tyumentseva","doi":"10.4236/ajcc.2021.103015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2021.103015","url":null,"abstract":"Predictive assessments of the geomorphological systems’ behavior under climate warming in southern Siberia have been performed based on time-series data, using theoretical and empirical models of processes. High sensitivity and fast response of erosional, aeolian, and cryogenic processes to current climatic changes are presented. The current trends under changing functioning conditions of geomorphological systems while maintaining climatic trends have been determined. Areas with different targeting of morpholithogenesis are identified.","PeriodicalId":69702,"journal":{"name":"美国气候变化期刊(英文)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44115027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-08-02DOI: 10.4236/ajcc.2021.103013
A. Maghrabi
In this study, atmospheric visibility (AV) data from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (24.91˚N, 46.41˚E, 760 m), for the period 1976-2011 were utilized to investigate the interannual, monthly, and seasonal AV variations and trends. The magnitudes of these trends were characterized and tested using mann-kendall (MK) rank statistics at different significance levels. No significant trend in AV was observed during the 36-year period. However, a significant increase in the annual mean AV by 0.24 km per year for the period between 1976 and 1999 was found. For the period 1999-2011, AV decreased significantly by 0.16 km per year. The potential effects of air temperature and relative humidity on AV were investigated. While these two variables could explain the observed trend of AV over some periods, they failed to do so for the whole study period. To search for extraterrestrial causes for long-term AV variations, correlation analyses between the time series of cosmic ray (CR) data (measured by NM and muon detector) and solar activity (represented by sunspot number) and AV were conducted and showed that these two variables are able to explain the AV variations for the whole study period. Additionally, power spectra analyses were conducted to investigate periodicities in the AV time series. Several significant periodicities, such as 9.8, 5.2, 2.2, 1.7, and 1.3 years were recognized. The obtained periodicities were similar to those reported by several investigators and found in solar, interplanetary, and CR parameters. The spectral and correlation results suggested that, with the expected effects of terrestrial and meteorological conditions on AV, long-term AV variations can also be related to the solar activity and associated CR modulations.
{"title":"Long-Term Visibility Trends in the Riyadh Megacity, Central Arabian Peninsula and Their Possible Link to Solar Activity","authors":"A. Maghrabi","doi":"10.4236/ajcc.2021.103013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2021.103013","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, atmospheric visibility (AV) data from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (24.91˚N, 46.41˚E, 760 m), for the period 1976-2011 were utilized to investigate the interannual, monthly, and seasonal AV variations and trends. The magnitudes of these trends were characterized and tested using mann-kendall (MK) rank statistics at different significance levels. No significant trend in AV was observed during the 36-year period. However, a significant increase in the annual mean AV by 0.24 km per year for the period between 1976 and 1999 was found. For the period 1999-2011, AV decreased significantly by 0.16 km per year. The potential effects of air temperature and relative humidity on AV were investigated. While these two variables could explain the observed trend of AV over some periods, they failed to do so for the whole study period. To search for extraterrestrial causes for long-term AV variations, correlation analyses between the time series of cosmic ray (CR) data (measured by NM and muon detector) and solar activity (represented by sunspot number) and AV were conducted and showed that these two variables are able to explain the AV variations for the whole study period. Additionally, power spectra analyses were conducted to investigate periodicities in the AV time series. Several significant periodicities, such as 9.8, 5.2, 2.2, 1.7, and 1.3 years were recognized. The obtained periodicities were similar to those reported by several investigators and found in solar, interplanetary, and CR parameters. The spectral and correlation results suggested that, with the expected effects of terrestrial and meteorological conditions on AV, long-term AV variations can also be related to the solar activity and associated CR modulations.","PeriodicalId":69702,"journal":{"name":"美国气候变化期刊(英文)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49629269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-08-02DOI: 10.4236/ajcc.2021.103016
M. O. Audu, E. Ejembi, Tertsee Igbawua
This study analyzed the spatial distribution and temporal trends of precipitation and its extremes over Nigeria from 1979-2013 using climate indices, in order to assess climatic extremes in the country. Daily precipitation data used in this study were obtained from Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET), Lagos. The study used climate indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection (ETCCDI) for assessing extreme precipitation. Sen’s slope estimator and Mann-Kendall trend test were employed in data analysis. Results revealed that precipitation and its extremes varied spatially across Nigeria. Significant negative trends were observed in most of the precipitation indices for the period under study. Furthermore, significant downward trends were observed in the CWD (Consecutive Wet Day) while the CDD (Consecutive Dry Day) showed significant upward trends in all the regions. These spatial and temporal changes indicate that Nigeria’s climate is trending towards a warmer and drier condition, which could be attributed to global warming-induced climate change; which altered historical rainfall patterns thereby leading to extreme events. The findings of this study have provided useful information in understanding the extreme events that are assumed by the general populace to be normal recurrent events in Nigeria. The results of the analysis of yearly and decadal changes in precipitation totals and extreme values for the last 35 years (1979-2013) suggest the likelihood of severe impacts on water resources, agriculture, and water-sensitive economic activities
{"title":"Assessment of Spatial Distribution and Temporal Trends of Precipitation and Its Extremes over Nigeria","authors":"M. O. Audu, E. Ejembi, Tertsee Igbawua","doi":"10.4236/ajcc.2021.103016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2021.103016","url":null,"abstract":"This study analyzed the spatial distribution and temporal trends of precipitation and its extremes over Nigeria from 1979-2013 using climate indices, in order to assess climatic extremes in the country. Daily precipitation data used in this study were obtained from Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET), Lagos. The study used climate indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection (ETCCDI) for assessing extreme precipitation. Sen’s slope estimator and Mann-Kendall trend test were employed in data analysis. Results revealed that precipitation and its extremes varied spatially across Nigeria. Significant negative trends were observed in most of the precipitation indices for the period under study. Furthermore, significant downward trends were observed in the CWD (Consecutive Wet Day) while the CDD (Consecutive Dry Day) showed significant upward trends in all the regions. These spatial and temporal changes indicate that Nigeria’s climate is trending towards a warmer and drier condition, which could be attributed to global warming-induced climate change; which altered historical rainfall patterns thereby leading to extreme events. The findings of this study have provided useful information in understanding the extreme events that are assumed by the general populace to be normal recurrent events in Nigeria. The results of the analysis of yearly and decadal changes in precipitation totals and extreme values for the last 35 years (1979-2013) suggest the likelihood of severe impacts on water resources, agriculture, and water-sensitive economic activities","PeriodicalId":69702,"journal":{"name":"美国气候变化期刊(英文)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45669386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-08-02DOI: 10.4236/ajcc.2021.103011
Mary W. Thongoh, H. Mutembei, J. Mburu, B. Kathambi
Climate change poses great risks to poverty alleviation, food security and livelihoods sustainability in sub-Saharan Africa, declining crop yields and livestock productivity, especially in ASALs that suffer from fragile ecosystems characterized by frequent droughts and low rainfall. Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) objectives of improving productivity and incomes, adaptation, resilience to climate change and mitigation on GHGs emissions, are responses to these climate risks. CSA technologies, innovation and management practices (TIMPs) in general do exist, however they are concentrated in crop farming neglecting livestock production and especially in marginalized areas such as ASALs, which forms 85% of Kenyan land mass and is dominated by pastoral and nomadic livestock production. Most CSA practices are mainly at the production level and hardly extend to the entire value chain, and diffusion is slow due to several barriers. A mixed method approach was used to evaluate barriers to actors’ adoption of CSA in the pastoral Livestock red meat value chain starting from input suppliers, producers, to consumers (pasture to plate). This study used six broad perspectives to examine the barriers: 1) Knowledge and institutional; 2) Market and financial; 3) Policy and incentives; 4) Networks and engagement platforms; 5) Cultural and social; 6) Physical infrastructure barriers. These barriers can be surmounted with concerted efforts from the government, development partners, pastoral communities, value chain actors and public private partnership among others. Efforts such as modernization of the pastoral red meat value chains, integration of MSMEs into the livestock systems, access to affordable financing, availability of context based, affordable CSA TIMPs, incentives, policies and institutional support, which currently remains inadequate. Institutional barriers like lack of capacity, coupled with knowledge and behavioral barriers hinder adoption. Financial institutions and cooperative societies can be enablers, however, their reluctance to invest in the sector is a barrier too.
{"title":"An Assessment of Barriers to MSMEs’ Adoption of CSA in Livestock Red Meat Value Chain, Kajiado County, Kenya","authors":"Mary W. Thongoh, H. Mutembei, J. Mburu, B. Kathambi","doi":"10.4236/ajcc.2021.103011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2021.103011","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change poses great risks to poverty alleviation, food security and livelihoods sustainability in sub-Saharan Africa, declining crop yields and livestock productivity, especially in ASALs that suffer from fragile ecosystems characterized by frequent droughts and low rainfall. Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) objectives of improving productivity and incomes, adaptation, resilience to climate change and mitigation on GHGs emissions, are responses to these climate risks. CSA technologies, innovation and management practices (TIMPs) in general do exist, however they are concentrated in crop farming neglecting livestock production and especially in marginalized areas such as ASALs, which forms 85% of Kenyan land mass and is dominated by pastoral and nomadic livestock production. Most CSA practices are mainly at the production level and hardly extend to the entire value chain, and diffusion is slow due to several barriers. A mixed method approach was used to evaluate barriers to actors’ adoption of CSA in the pastoral Livestock red meat value chain starting from input suppliers, producers, to consumers (pasture to plate). This study used six broad perspectives to examine the barriers: 1) Knowledge and institutional; 2) Market and financial; 3) Policy and incentives; 4) Networks and engagement platforms; 5) Cultural and social; 6) Physical infrastructure barriers. These barriers can be surmounted with concerted efforts from the government, development partners, pastoral communities, value chain actors and public private partnership among others. Efforts such as modernization of the pastoral red meat value chains, integration of MSMEs into the livestock systems, access to affordable financing, availability of context based, affordable CSA TIMPs, incentives, policies and institutional support, which currently remains inadequate. Institutional barriers like lack of capacity, coupled with knowledge and behavioral barriers hinder adoption. Financial institutions and cooperative societies can be enablers, however, their reluctance to invest in the sector is a barrier too.","PeriodicalId":69702,"journal":{"name":"美国气候变化期刊(英文)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45089584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-08-02DOI: 10.4236/ajcc.2021.103014
Richard R. Muita, P. Kucera, S. Aura, David Muchemi, David Gikungu, S. Mwangi, Martin Steinson, P. Oloo, N. Maingi, Ezekiel Muigai, Mwaura Kamau
Meteorological data is useful for varied applications and sectors ranging from weather and climate forecasting, landscape planning to disaster management among others. However, the availability of these data requires a good network of manual meteorological stations and other support systems for its collection, recording, processing, archiving, communication and dissemination. In sub-Saharan Africa, such networks are limited due to low investment and capacity. To bridge this gap, the National Meteorological Services in Kenya and few others from African countries have moved to install a number of Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs) in the past decade including a few additions from private institutions and individuals. Although these AWSs have the potential to improve the existing observation network and the early warning systems in the region, the quality and capacity of the data collected from the stations are not well exploited. This is mainly due to low confidence, by data users, in electronically observed data. In this study, we set out to confirm that electronically observed data is of comparable quality to a human observer recorded data, and can thus be used to bridge data gaps at temporal and spatial scales. To assess this potential, we applied the simple Pearson correlation method and other statistical tests and approaches by conducting inter-comparison analysis of weather observations from the manual synoptic station and data from two Automatic Weather Stations (TAHMO and 3D-PAWS) co-located at KMD Headquarters to establish existing consistencies and variances in several weather parameters. Results show there is comparable consistency in most of the weather parameters between the three stations. Strong associations were noted between the TAHMO and manual station data for minimum (r = 0.65) and maximum temperatures (r = 0.86) and the maximum temperature between TAHMO and 3DPAWS (r = 0.56). Similar associations were indicated for surface pressure (r = 0.99) and RH (r > 0.6) with the weakest correlations occurring in wind direction and speed. The Shapiro test for normality assumption indicated that the distribution of several parameters compared between the 3 stations were normally distributed (p > 0.05). We conclude that these findings can be used as a basis for wider use of data sets from Automatic Weather Stations in Kenya and elsewhere. This can inform various applications in weather and climate related decisions.
{"title":"Towards Increasing Data Availability for Meteorological Services: Inter-Comparison of Meteorological Data from a Synoptic Weather Station and Two Automatic Weather Stations in Kenya","authors":"Richard R. Muita, P. Kucera, S. Aura, David Muchemi, David Gikungu, S. Mwangi, Martin Steinson, P. Oloo, N. Maingi, Ezekiel Muigai, Mwaura Kamau","doi":"10.4236/ajcc.2021.103014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2021.103014","url":null,"abstract":"Meteorological data is useful for varied applications and sectors ranging from weather and climate forecasting, landscape planning to disaster management among others. However, the availability of these data requires a good network of manual meteorological stations and other support systems for its collection, recording, processing, archiving, communication and dissemination. In sub-Saharan Africa, such networks are limited due to low investment and capacity. To bridge this gap, the National Meteorological Services in Kenya and few others from African countries have moved to install a number of Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs) in the past decade including a few additions from private institutions and individuals. Although these AWSs have the potential to improve the existing observation network and the early warning systems in the region, the quality and capacity of the data collected from the stations are not well exploited. This is mainly due to low confidence, by data users, in electronically observed data. In this study, we set out to confirm that electronically observed data is of comparable quality to a human observer recorded data, and can thus be used to bridge data gaps at temporal and spatial scales. To assess this potential, we applied the simple Pearson correlation method and other statistical tests and approaches by conducting inter-comparison analysis of weather observations from the manual synoptic station and data from two Automatic Weather Stations (TAHMO and 3D-PAWS) co-located at KMD Headquarters to establish existing consistencies and variances in several weather parameters. Results show there is comparable consistency in most of the weather parameters between the three stations. Strong associations were noted between the TAHMO and manual station data for minimum (r = 0.65) and maximum temperatures (r = 0.86) and the maximum temperature between TAHMO and 3DPAWS (r = 0.56). Similar associations were indicated for surface pressure (r = 0.99) and RH (r > 0.6) with the weakest correlations occurring in wind direction and speed. The Shapiro test for normality assumption indicated that the distribution of several parameters compared between the 3 stations were normally distributed (p > 0.05). We conclude that these findings can be used as a basis for wider use of data sets from Automatic Weather Stations in Kenya and elsewhere. This can inform various applications in weather and climate related decisions.","PeriodicalId":69702,"journal":{"name":"美国气候变化期刊(英文)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43906823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-08-02DOI: 10.4236/ajcc.2021.103017
T. Ologunorisa, O. Durowoju, A. Akinbobola
This study examined the hydroclimatology of the Kaduna River Basin (KRB) in northern Nigeria. In achieving this, monthly data on temperature (T) and rainfall (P) were sourced from ten hydrometeorological stations across the basin from 1990 to 2018. DrinC (Drought Indices Calculator) software was deployed to calculate Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) adopting Thornthwaite approach. Water Balance (WB) model was used further to estimate other WB components i.e. soil moisture (SM), actual evapotranspiration (ETa), Water surplus (S) and Runoff (R). WB components are used to examine the temporal and spatial variability of the KRB for hydrological years (1990-2018). KRB was divided into two sub-basins (Lower and Upper KRB). The WB analyses indicated the peak of R generally occurs during the wet season (i.e. April through October) most especially at the Upper KRB. The study further reveals that the runoff efficiencies imply that i.e. November through March) across the basin while the majority of S is generated during wet season months, particularly from April through October when ~95% of S occurs on average with the peak S in August. The results of this study provide a baseline understanding of the hydroclimatology of the KRB which can be used as a starting point for further analyses, especially for water resources management.
{"title":"Hydroclimatology of the Kaduna River Basin","authors":"T. Ologunorisa, O. Durowoju, A. Akinbobola","doi":"10.4236/ajcc.2021.103017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2021.103017","url":null,"abstract":"This study examined the hydroclimatology of the Kaduna River Basin (KRB) in northern Nigeria. In achieving this, monthly data on temperature (T) and rainfall (P) were sourced from ten hydrometeorological stations across the basin from 1990 to 2018. DrinC (Drought Indices Calculator) software was deployed to calculate Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) adopting Thornthwaite approach. Water Balance (WB) model was used further to estimate other WB components i.e. soil moisture (SM), actual evapotranspiration (ETa), Water surplus (S) and Runoff (R). WB components are used to examine the temporal and spatial variability of the KRB for hydrological years (1990-2018). KRB was divided into two sub-basins (Lower and Upper KRB). The WB analyses indicated the peak of R generally occurs during the wet season (i.e. April through October) most especially at the Upper KRB. The study further reveals that the runoff efficiencies imply that i.e. November through March) across the basin while the majority of S is generated during wet season months, particularly from April through October when ~95% of S occurs on average with the peak S in August. The results of this study provide a baseline understanding of the hydroclimatology of the KRB which can be used as a starting point for further analyses, especially for water resources management.","PeriodicalId":69702,"journal":{"name":"美国气候变化期刊(英文)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44892547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-04-27DOI: 10.4236/AJCC.2021.102007
M. Rafael, María Santos-Corrada, M. Sandra
This article analyzes the perceptions of Puerto Rican citizens of global climate change (GCC) before and after an extreme weather event, specifically Hurricane Maria (HM). The purpose of the current article is to evaluate Puerto Ricans’ perceptions of the impact of extreme meteorological phenomena and of GCC before and after HM. This tropical cyclone entered the island as a category IV hurricane on September 17, 2017, causing enormous destruction, loss of life, and economic damage. In this study, two data samples were collected before and after HM struck Puerto Rico (PR) (the second sample was collected approximately six months after the hurricane). Surveyed citizens with general knowledge of GCC increased from 43% to 62%, which the researchers consider a small increase, considering the severe destruction caused by HM. This study also found that Puerto Ricans trust non-profit institutions and the scientific community more than state authorities. Furthermore, 85% of citizens believe that public policies on GCC should be directed by the state (federal, state, and municipal governments); this did not change after HM. In addition, this study found that the poor response of the federal and state governments to the destruction caused by HM increased citizens’ trust in the scientific community.
{"title":"Perceptions of Climate Change in Puerto Rico before and after Hurricane Maria","authors":"M. Rafael, María Santos-Corrada, M. Sandra","doi":"10.4236/AJCC.2021.102007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4236/AJCC.2021.102007","url":null,"abstract":"This article analyzes the perceptions of Puerto Rican citizens of global climate change (GCC) before and after an extreme weather event, specifically Hurricane Maria (HM). The purpose of the current article is to evaluate Puerto Ricans’ perceptions of the impact of extreme meteorological phenomena and of GCC before and after HM. This tropical cyclone entered the island as a category IV hurricane on September 17, 2017, causing enormous destruction, loss of life, and economic damage. In this study, two data samples were collected before and after HM struck Puerto Rico (PR) (the second sample was collected approximately six months after the hurricane). Surveyed citizens with general knowledge of GCC increased from 43% to 62%, which the researchers consider a small increase, considering the severe destruction caused by HM. This study also found that Puerto Ricans trust non-profit institutions and the scientific community more than state authorities. Furthermore, 85% of citizens believe that public policies on GCC should be directed by the state (federal, state, and municipal governments); this did not change after HM. In addition, this study found that the poor response of the federal and state governments to the destruction caused by HM increased citizens’ trust in the scientific community.","PeriodicalId":69702,"journal":{"name":"美国气候变化期刊(英文)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47038387","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-04-27DOI: 10.4236/ajcc.2021.102009
L. Traoré, O. D. Bello, F. Chabi, I. Balogoun, I. Yabi, M. Y. Issifou, E. Ahoton, A. Togola, A. Saidou
Climatic variability is one of the main constraints of agriculture in Mali, which will certainly affect long-term sorghum yields. The objective of the present study was to assess the effect of climate variability on sorghum production areas by 2050 in the Sudanian and Sahelian zones of Mali considering three climate scenarios: current scenarios (RCP 2.5), optimistic scenarios (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic scenarios (RCP 8.5). Therefore, 11,010 occurrence points of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) were collected and associated with the environmental variables of the three climatic scenarios according to the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). Sorghum environmental data and points of occurrence were obtained from AfriClim and GBIF databases, respectively. The correlations carried out and the Jackknife test allowed us to identify variables that contributed more to the performance of the model. Overall, in the Sudanian zone, the suitable area for sorghum production which currently represents 37% of the area of the district of Koulikoro will increase up to 51% by 2050 considering the optimistic scenario (RCP 4.5). Furthermore, considering the pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5), the suitable zones for sorghum production will experience a decrease of 10%. In the Sahelian zone, the suitable zones for sorghum production that represent 55% of San district area considering the RCP 2.5 scenario will experience a decline of 24% by 2050 considering both the optimistic (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) scenarios. It is suggested to carry out investigations on potential sorghum yield prediction in both study areas in order to identify suitable production areas of the crop in the near future (2050) and long term (2100) as adaptation strategies and resilience of farmers to climate change.
{"title":"Modelling of Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) Growing Areas under Current and Future Climate in the Sudanian and Sahelian Zones of Mali","authors":"L. Traoré, O. D. Bello, F. Chabi, I. Balogoun, I. Yabi, M. Y. Issifou, E. Ahoton, A. Togola, A. Saidou","doi":"10.4236/ajcc.2021.102009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2021.102009","url":null,"abstract":"Climatic variability is one of the main constraints of agriculture in Mali, which will certainly affect long-term sorghum yields. The objective of the present study was to assess the effect of climate variability on sorghum production areas by 2050 in the Sudanian and Sahelian zones of Mali considering three climate scenarios: current scenarios (RCP 2.5), optimistic scenarios (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic scenarios (RCP 8.5). Therefore, 11,010 occurrence points of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) were collected and associated with the environmental variables of the three climatic scenarios according to the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). Sorghum environmental data and points of occurrence were obtained from AfriClim and GBIF databases, respectively. The correlations carried out and the Jackknife test allowed us to identify variables that contributed more to the performance of the model. Overall, in the Sudanian zone, the suitable area for sorghum production which currently represents 37% of the area of the district of Koulikoro will increase up to 51% by 2050 considering the optimistic scenario (RCP 4.5). Furthermore, considering the pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5), the suitable zones for sorghum production will experience a decrease of 10%. In the Sahelian zone, the suitable zones for sorghum production that represent 55% of San district area considering the RCP 2.5 scenario will experience a decline of 24% by 2050 considering both the optimistic (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) scenarios. It is suggested to carry out investigations on potential sorghum yield prediction in both study areas in order to identify suitable production areas of the crop in the near future (2050) and long term (2100) as adaptation strategies and resilience of farmers to climate change.","PeriodicalId":69702,"journal":{"name":"美国气候变化期刊(英文)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46052633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-04-27DOI: 10.4236/AJCC.2021.102008
M. Islam, Md. Sirazum Munir, M. A. Bashar, K. Sumon, M. Kamruzzaman, Y. Mahmud
This research aims to identify the morphological changes of the Padma River due to the effects of anthropogenic climate change. The morphological changes were measured by aerial satellite images and their historical comparison, terrestrial survey, sedimentation in the riverbed, water flow, water discharge, siltation, and erosion along the river, etc. The Padma River has been analyzed over the period from 1971 to 2020 using multi-temporal Landsat images and long-term water flow data. The climatic parameters data related to temperature and rainfall were collected from 21 metrological stations distributed throughout Bangladesh over a 50-year period (1965-2015) to evaluate the magnitude of these changes statistically and spatially. The Padma, traditionally considered as a dominantly meandering river, is switching over into a braided river due to its highly susceptible nature of erosion and deposition. Results reveal that the tidal range is high during the dry season and increases from upstream to downstream of the river. Climate change may bring changes upstream by changing rainfall intensity, flood severity, and extreme temperature. More inundation can occur due to sedimentation, and more bank erosion can occur at the same time. An exponential increase of morphological activity with increased river flow, water discharge, bank erosion might substantially increase in the future. The changes in the flow introduced by climate change would impact the morphology of the Padma River of Bangladesh during the monsoon. A major change has been observed in the location of the bank and channel, as well as bars, along with their geometry and morphology over time. It is also observed that the bank line is not stable and migrated continuously. The overall width of the Padma River is varied significantly during the last 50 years. Maps and Landsat images represented that the river channel is shifting abnormally. Both climatic parameters and anthropogenic activity play an important role in fish biology and production. From this study, it is hypothesized that this assessment’s findings might help understand the overall hydrodynamic and morphological nature of the Padma River. It will suggest possible future developmental works that might be implemented on this river.
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