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Battle of the Brains: Election-Night Forecasting at the Dawn of the Computer Age 《大脑之战:计算机时代来临之际的选举之夜预测》
Pub Date : 2010-01-01 DOI: 10.13016/rj15-4718
I. Chinoy
This dissertation examines journalists' early encounters with computers as tools for news reporting, focusing on election-night forecasting in 1952. Although election night 1952 is frequently mentioned in histories of computing and journalism as a quirky but seminal episode, it has received little scholarly attention. This dissertation asks how and why election night and the nascent field of television news became points of entry for computers in news reporting. The dissertation argues that although computers were employed as pathbreaking "electronic brains" on election night 1952, they were used in ways consistent with a long tradition of election-night reporting. As central events in American culture, election nights had long served to showcase both news reporting and new technology, whether with 19th-century devices for displaying returns to waiting crowds or with 20th-century experiments in delivering news by radio. In 1952, key players - television news broadcasters, computer manufacturers, and critics - showed varied reactions to employing computers for election coverage. But this computer use in 1952 did not represent wholesale change. While live use of the new technology was a risk taken by broadcasters and computer makers in a quest for attention, the underlying methodology of forecasting from early returns did not represent a sharp break with pre-computer approaches. And while computers were touted in advance as key features of election-night broadcasts, the "electronic brains" did not replace "human brains" as primary sources of analysis on election night in 1952. This case study chronicles the circumstances under which a new technology was employed by a relatively new form of the news media. On election night 1952, the computer was deployed not so much to revolutionize news reporting as to capture public attention. It functioned in line with existing values and practices of election-night journalism. In this important instance, therefore, the new technology's technical features were less a driving force for adoption than its usefulness as a wonder and as a symbol to enhance the prestige of its adopters. This suggests that a new technology's capacity to provide both technical and symbolic social utility can be key to its chances for adoption by the news media.
这篇论文考察了记者早期与计算机作为新闻报道工具的接触,重点是1952年的选举之夜预测。尽管1952年的选举之夜在计算机史和新闻史上经常被视为一个古怪但影响深远的事件,但它却很少受到学术界的关注。本论文探讨了选举之夜和电视新闻这一新兴领域如何以及为何成为计算机在新闻报道中的切入点。论文认为,尽管计算机在1952年选举之夜被用作开创性的“电子大脑”,但它们的使用方式与选举之夜报道的悠久传统相一致。作为美国文化的中心事件,选举之夜长期以来一直被用来展示新闻报道和新技术,无论是用19世纪向等待的人群展示选举结果的设备,还是用20世纪通过广播传递新闻的实验。1952年,关键人物——电视新闻广播员、电脑制造商和评论家——对使用电脑进行选举报道表现出不同的反应。但是,1952年计算机的使用并不代表大规模的变化。尽管直播新技术是广播公司和电脑制造商为吸引关注而冒的风险,但根据早期回报进行预测的基本方法,并不代表与电脑出现之前的方法有明显的突破。虽然计算机被提前吹捧为选举之夜广播的关键功能,但“电子大脑”并没有取代“人脑”,成为1952年选举之夜分析的主要来源。本案例研究记录了一种新技术被一种相对较新的新闻媒体所采用的情况。在1952年的选举之夜,电脑的使用与其说是为了革新新闻报道,不如说是为了吸引公众的注意力。它的运作符合选举之夜新闻的现有价值观和做法。因此,在这个重要的例子中,新技术的技术特征与其说是推动采用的动力,不如说是作为一种奇迹和作为提高其采用者声望的象征的实用性。这表明,一项新技术提供技术和象征性社会效用的能力可能是其被新闻媒体采用的机会的关键。
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The University of Maryland law forum
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